Terrace Marshall Dynasty Fantasy Outlook, NFL Draft Profile & Prop Bets
Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images. Pictured: Terrace Marshall
Terrace Marshall Draft Profile
Terrace Marshall Draft Props
As I outlined in my DeVonta Smith prospect profile, I am betting under 5.5 wide receivers in Round 1 (-162 at Fox Bet).
In my post-Super Bowl mock I had Marshall going No. 31 to the Chiefs, but in my post-free agency mock, I have only four wide receivers going in Round 1 — and Marshall is not one of them.
Ja’Marr Chase (LSU), DeVonta Smith (Alabama) and Jaylen Waddle (Alabama) are all locks to go in Round 1, but after those three, there’s uncertainty. Rashod Bateman (Minnesota) has seen his draft stock drop since his underwhelming pro day weigh-in, and Kadarius Toney (Florida) is a coin flip.
After his strong pro day performance, Marshall has seen his draft stock skyrocket (per Grinding the Mocks).
But even if Marshall finds his way into Round 1, there’s still a good chance that we see fewer than 5.5 receivers in the top 32.
And for what it’s worth I personally think Marshall belongs in Round 1: He has the profile of a Day 1 receiver.
That said, he has effectively no chance to be the No. 1 receiver selected.
While I rely on my own research, I also take a “wisdom of the crowds” approach by surveying an index of mock drafts. I find that these drafts — created by experts with established records of success — collectively give me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes for what we might see with any given player or pick.
In not one of these indexed mocks has Marshall gone ahead of any of Chase, Smith and Waddle. For Marshall to catapult ahead of all of them — as well as Bateman and Toney — is almost unthinkable.
The odds for Marshall to go off the board as the top wideout range from +4000 at DraftKings and PointsBet to +11000 at FanDuel, and I don’t see any value in those numbers. Even at the most generous odds of +11000, Marshall has an implied probability of 0.9% to be the No. 1 receiver, but I think his true odds are closer to 0.3% — and even that feels high.
So I’m not betting anything on Marshall as of writing in April, but there is a decent chance he goes in Round 1, and I’ll be eyeing the prop market to see where his over/under is.
Dynasty Fantasy Analysis
I should say now that it’s hard for me to be objective about Marshall: He has so many characteristics I crave in wide receivers.
Example: My pre-draft model prefers Bateman to Marshall — but I am very tempted to rank Marshall ahead of Bateman, especially after their respective pro days.
My model probably leans toward Bateman: Early declare, early breakout, can play outside and inside.
But I'll be tempted to override it, especially if Marshall is drafted higher: Early declare, younger, five-star recruit, bigger and just as fast.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 6, 2021
In my way-too-early rookie dynasty rankings, I had Marshall ranked No. 7 — sandwiched between Smith and Waddle — and I have a feeling that when I update my rankings, I will still be similarly high on him.
As we saw at his pro day, he is big and fast — bigger than his teammate Chase and almost as fast.
Official results from @LSUfootball pro-day:
WR Ja’Marr Chase
Hand 9 5/8
Arm 30 3/4
Wing 74 7/8
40-yd 4.34-4.38 (NFL ⏱ range)🔥
WR Terrace Marshall
4.40-4.43 (NFL range)🔥
no VJ or BJ
— Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) March 31, 2021
Here’s what’s especially impressive to me: Not only did Marshall blaze his 40-yard dash, looking like a small D.K. Metcalf in the process …
4.38 40 for #LSU WR Terrace Marshall. He opted to run once after that pic.twitter.com/kUB4oNrtvb
— Jane Slater (@SlaterNFL) March 31, 2021
… but he did it on just one attempt because he entered his pro day with a hamstring tweak and wanted to avoid an aggravation.
Think about that: A guy of his size with a 40 time that fast … on a hamstring that isn’t 100%.
But it’s not a surprise that Marshall is a true athletic marvel: He was a five-star recruit entering college. In fact, he was widely considered the No. 1 receiver prospect in the nation even though he suffered significant ankle and leg injuries his senior year of high school.
On top of that, he’s an early declarant who will be 21 years old as a rookie.
The one big analytical knock on him is production: He did not break out in his first collegiate year, and at no point did he outproduce now-Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson or fellow 2021 prospect Ja’Marr Chase.
It’s true: Marshall did nothing as a true freshman with just 12-192-0 receiving in 13 games as a rotational receiver behind Jefferson and Chase.
But Marshall did break out as a 19-year-old true sophomore in 2019 with 46-671-13 receiving in 12 games for the national championship-winning Tigers, and then in 2020 he emerged as the No. 1 receiver for LSU with 48-731-10 receiving in seven games (he missed the final three games of the season because he opted out).
Granted, Marshall dominated within the LSU offense only once Jefferson (NFL) and Chase (COVID-19 opt-out) were no longer on the team, but I don’t hold that against Marshall. Jefferson just had the greatest rookie wide receiver season of all time, and Chase won the Biletnikoff Award in 2019 as the best receiver in college football — and even so, Marshall was able to carve out a significant role for himself within the offense as a sophomore. That’s still impressive.
So with Marshall, we have a case where his production profile is fine. His breakout age is fine. But then you give his early college years teammate context, and you realize that it would've been *insane* for him to produce at a high level playing with Jefferson and Chase.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) April 6, 2021
On top of that, Marshall was better in 2019 than his final numbers suggest. In the first four games of the season, he had production that was comparable to Chase and Jefferson’s.
Terrace Marshall fractured his foot in week 4 of 2019.
Stats thru 4 weeks:
Chase: 20 Rec 397 Yds 5 TD
J. Jeff: 21 Rec 392 Yds 5 TD
Marshall: 20 rec 304 Yds 6 TD
He missed 4 weeks. Didn't seem fully healthy until December.
Stats are nice. Context is key.
— Dynasty Masters (@dynastymasters) April 6, 2021
In his fourth game, however, he suffered a fractured toe, and he missed the next three games.
- There is a massive statistical difference between what he did before and after the injury. It’s possible that he wasn’t truly healthy when he returned to action and that he played the remainder of the season at far less than full capacity.
- At the time of his injury, Marshall led the nation with six touchdowns receiving.
If not for his injury, Marshall might have joined Chase and Jefferson as a 1,000-10 receiver in 2019.
And now Marshall is highly likely to go no later than Round 2.
Even if we don’t take his strong athletic profile into account, all of this puts him in an elite historical cohort of receiver prospects: Early declarants who are 21 years old as rookies and selected in Rounds 1-2 and who have 100-plus scrimmage yards in a college season.
2011-20: Rds. 1-2 WRs – 21yo early declarants w/ 100 yds/g in a season:
– Justin Jefferson
– CeeDee Lamb
– Curtis Samuel
– JuJu Smith-Schuster
– Amari Cooper
– Brandin Cooks
– Mike Evans
– Allen Robinson
– Sammy Watkins
– DeAndre Hopkins
– Robert Woods
🚀 Terrace Marshall?
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 6, 2021
With his expected draft capital, junior-year production, age and abbreviated college tenure, Marshall looks like a prospect with a real chance to be a star.
From an on-field perspective, what I like about Marshall is that he can play on the perimeter and in the interior. As a freshman, he played almost exclusively on the outside. As a sophomore, he still saw the majority of his snaps on the perimeter, but he also rotated into the slot on 41% of his reps. And then as a junior he took over the full-time “Justin Jefferson slot role,” seeing 72% of his snaps in the middle (per2021 Sports Info Solutions Football Rookie Handbook, SIS).
So he has the flexibility to line up all over the field, and he can do so with comparable efficacy.
As a junior, his average depth of target massively dropped because of his move to the slot.
- 2019: 14.2 yards
- 2020: 8.9 yards
Even so, Marshall’s efficiency was about the same — on significantly more target volume (per SIS).
Targets Per Game
- 2019: 5.6
- 2020: 10.3
Yards per Target
- 2019: 10.0
- 2020: 10.2
- 2019: 140.6
- 2020: 133.7
Positive Play Rate vs. Man
- 2019: 69%
- 2020: 64%
Yards per Route Run
- 2019: 1.6
- 2020: 1.9
With his size, Marshall is one of the few big-bodied receivers in the class. And with his ability to line up all across the formation, he can be an every-down contributor early in his NFL career.
Per Pro Football Focus, Marshall was a top-quintile receiver in 2020 with his 81.1 receiving grade, 82% contested catch rate and 81.8 grade vs. man coverage. The numbers suggest Marshall can produce in the NFL.
Love the Marshall hype.
Here's the thing… we're pretty damn sure Justin Jefferson's market share was suppressed in 2019 playing alongside Ja'Marr Chase. How do you think it affected true sophomore Marshall to be behind Chase *and* Jefferson in 2019? The ceiling here is huge. https://t.co/TOxJKCiqU4
— Patrick Kerrane (@PatKerrane) April 6, 2021
Aesthetically, however, Marshall has problems. To many film-grinding aficionados, he is an incredibly raw receiver who reeks of incompleteness.
In 2020, he had seven drops on 55 catchable targets (per PFF). Much of his production and volume was schemed. He’s a stiff and awkward route runner with a limited tree. He lacks explosion off the line of scrimmage and can be pushed off his routes by physical press corners.
Essentially, the eye test indicates that he’s more of an athlete than a football player.
The tape watchers are probably right: When I look at Marshall’s film, I don’t see a guy who is incredibly smooth … and that’s part of what intrigues me. Even with mediocre football skills, Marshall found a way to dominate in 2020.
What happens if he actually learns to play football in the NFL?
And, besides, many dominant NFL receivers have success more through their physicality than their football nuance. When was the last time people praised Julio Jones for his routes?
I don’t want to discount what the film watchers are saying, but I’m also not going to put much weight into it. It’s hard to quantify “limited route runner,” and I’m not even sure if that matters anyway.
What matters — at least to me — is that I might be significantly higher on Marshall than the dynasty market is, and I’m 100% alright with that.
NFL Prospect Comp: DeVante Parker with more youth and less time in college but also less draft capital
Matthew Freedman is 1,018-828-37 (55.1%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
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