Colts-Raiders Betting Preview: Do You Dare Roll the Dice With Oakland?
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Andrew Luck, Derek Carr
Betting odds: Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders
- Spread: Colts -3
- Over/Under: 50.5
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- TV channel: CBS
>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets
Betting market: After this game opened at a pick ’em, bettors quickly moved the Colts to 1-point favorites. Indianapolis has since been pushed to the key number of -3 following the Raiders’ Amari Cooper trade.
Trends to know: The Raiders scored three points in a blowout loss to the Seahawks in London two weeks ago. Teams that are listed as underdogs after scoring three or fewer points in their previous game have gone 95-69-6 (58%) against the spread since 2003. — John Ewing
The Colts and Raiders are on opposite spectrums. Indianapolis is coming off a 32-point thrashing of Buffalo last week while Oakland was beaten 27-3 by Seattle across the pond before its bye week.
Teams to win their previous game by 21 or more points and face a team that lost their previous game by 21 or more points are 30-40-1 ATS (42.9%) since 2003, losing bettors 11.1 units. When the team off the win is on the road, it is 14-28-1 ATS (-15 units). — Evan Abrams
Luck might not be on the Colts’ side this week. Their big win over the Bills was largely a result of the five turnovers Buffalo committed compared to the turnover-free game Indy put together.
Since 2003, teams to win the turnover battle by a margin of at least five but have an average turnover margin of less than +1.0 over their five games before that are 8-18-2 ATS (-10.3 units), failing to cover the spread by 7.4 points per game. — Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Colts offensive line vs. Raiders defense
The Colts have done a solid job of protecting Andrew Luck, ranking fifth in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Sack Rate through seven weeks. Meanwhile, the Raiders rank dead last in the metric on defense.
Getting sacked a league-low 1.17 times per game, Luck hasn’t been sacked since Week 5. — Justin Bailey
Oakland’s pass defense has been especially poor against tight ends (32nd in the NFL), slot receivers (32nd) and running backs (31st) — all positions Luck prefers to target in the Colts’ short passing attack. In fact, he’s had more pass attempts to players lined up in the slot than any quarterback in the league this season with 152.
Most pass attempts to players who lined up in the slot this season + most targeted from slot (@SportsInfo_SIS):
Andrew Luck (152) – Ebron (42)
Kirk Cousins (137) – Thielen (63) – Diggs (32)
Jared Goff (133) – Woods (38) – Cupp (32) – Cooks (28)
Andy Dalton (113) – Boyd (44)
— Justin Bailey (@justinbailey32) October 23, 2018
Expect Luck to move the chains at will with the short passing game, especially now that he has T.Y. Hilton back with a game under his belt. — Stuckey
Which team is healthier? Raiders
The Colts continue to list roughly half of their starters on the injury report.
Free safety Malik Hooker (hip), defensive tackle Jihad Ward (ankle), running backs Marlon Mack (ankle) and Robert Turbin (shoulder), tight end Erik Swoope (knee), safety Clayton Geathers (concussion/neck), and receiver Ryan Grant (ankle) managed to practice on Thursday. Jack Doyle (hip) and Adam Vinatieri (groin) are shaping up as game-time decisions.
Meanwhile, the Raiders offensive line isn’t 100% with center Rodney Hudson (ankle), left guard Kelechi Osemele (knee) and right guard Gabe Jackson (pec) weren’t able to practice in full to start the week.
The good news for Oakland is that quarterback Derek Carr (shoulder) is good to go. The bad news is that Marshawn Lynch (groin) will miss at least the next eight weeks.
DFS edge: Luck is in an amazing spot since the Raiders have a nonexistent pass rush and can’t cover the pass, ranking as Pro Football Focus’ No. 29 unit in pass coverage.
It also doesn’t hurt that the Colts have the third-most pass attempts in the red zone this season. Luck owns the third-highest ceiling projection on DraftKings to go along with his 88% Leverage Rating. — Bailey
Bet to watch: Raiders +3
This line is a mixture of overreactions to the Colts blowing out the Bills in Week 7 and the Raiders losing Lynch and Cooper.
I had this opening right around Raiders +1.5 or +2 (which it did), but a flood of money has pushed it to the key number of +3. Despite all of the issues the Raiders face at the moment, we have to remember that the Colts are a very below-average team.
Taking Indianapolis as a field goal-favorite on the road is going to be a losing play more times than not. — Sean Koerner
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.