Vikings-Eagles Betting Preview: Will Minnesota Get Revenge for NFC Title Game?
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Kirk Cousins, Carson Wentz
Betting odds: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles
- Spread: Eagles -3
- Over/Under: 46.5
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- TV channel: FOX
>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets
Betting market: This game is split in terms of bets and dollars — the line movement, or lack thereof, reflects that.
The Eagles have remained a three-point favorite since opening (you can find updated lines here), and although the juice was up in the -125 territory for some time, it has since moved back down to -120.
The over has received a crazy 90% of bets so far and has moved from 44.5 to 46.5 since opening. — Mark Gallant
Trends to know: Entering Week 5, the Vikings and Cardinals both have a negative against the spread differential of a touchdown or more. According to our Bet Labs data, teams matching that criteria since 2005 cover at a rate of 55.3% against the first half spread when listed as an underdog, profiting bettors 31 total units. — Evan Abrams
Seven NFL teams are currently scoring fewer than 21 points per game entering Week 5, but only three of those seven teams are also allowing fewer than 21 PPG: Titans, Cowboys and Eagles (Tennessee and Dallas are on the road in Week 5).
Consider these nuggets …
- When a team scoring and allowing fewer than 21 PPG plays at home in October or later, the over is 260-221-5 (54.1%).
- When that home team is .500 or better, the over is 153-123-5 (55.4%, 7.8% ROI)
- When the game is between non-divisional opponents, the over is 172-128-4 (57.3%, 11.5% ROI)
- When that home team made the playoffs the season prior, the over is 62-38 (62%, 20.9% ROI). — Evan Abrams
Did you know? In the NFC Championship game last postseason, the Vikings were a three-point road favorite in Philadelphia.
A majority of bettors were on the Vikings and were surely disappointed as the Eagles won 38-7. In Sunday’s rematch, the Eagles are field goal favorites, but a majority of spread tickets are still on the Vikings. — John Ewing
Biggest mismatch: Eagles front four vs. Vikings’ run game
It’s a good thing that Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are facing struggling corners Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills because it would be a surprise if the Vikings get anything going on the ground.
Right guard Mike Remmers and right tackle Rashod Hill have been major liabilities this season, both ranking outside the top 50 at their respective positions. They’re going to get eaten alive by Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham (both rank in the top five at their positions).
On 60 carries by opposing running backs, the Eagles have given up an NFL-low 160 yards. Forget 4.0 yards per carry, the Eagles aren’t even giving up 3.0.
Meanwhile, Minnesota backs have gained a league-low 182 yards on 59 carries (3.1 yards per carry), and the team has a 37% Success Rate on run plays, also worst in the league.
To make matters worse, Dalvin Cook (hamstring) admits he still isn’t near 100%. — Chris Raybon
Which team is healthier? Eagles
The Vikings could be without starting cornerback Trae Waynes (concussion) and defensive end Everson Griffen (knee), while Cook (hamstring) isn’t back to full strength.
The interior of the Vikings’ defensive line could also be in trouble if defensive tackles Linval Joseph (shoulder) and Tom Johnson (ankle) are ultimately unable to suit up.
The Eagles probably won’t have backup running backs Corey Clement (quad) or Darren Sproles (hamstring) for another week, but Alshon Jeffery (chest), defensive tackle Fletcher Cox (ankle), and all-world tackle Jason Peters (quad) aren’t thought to be dealing with serious injuries.
DFS edge: It’s unlikely the Vikings will be able to run against this Eagles defense, which should solidify Thielen’s already absurd floor.
Kirk Cousins leads the league in pass attempts, so it isn’t surprising that Thielen leads the league in targets (56) and targets per game (14).
Even though the Vikings’ offensive line will be outmatched against the Eagles’ front seven, Cousins’ 63.9% completion rate ranks second among quarterbacks when faced with pressure.
Bet to watch: Vikings +3
I love this situational spot for the Vikings, who will be out for revenge from last year’s NFC Championship game.
Not only do they have extra prep time after a Thursday night loss in Los Angeles, they are catching an Eagles team that had to play an extra quarter on the road in a Week 4 overtime loss.
The Eagles’ offense will be fine, but it’s still rusty after dealing with injuries. On paper, the Eagles’ defensive line should dominate the Vikings’ offensive line, but that was also the case in the Rams game.
I think the Vikings can employ a similar quick-passing gameplan and roll out Cousins, who can effectively throw on the move, to counter their disadvantage up front.
Also, you can never go wrong trusting Mike Zimmer on the road as a dog. His ATS record speaks for itself. — Stuckey
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.