Koerner’s Week 10 NFL Power Ratings: Best Bets According to My Projected Spreads & Over/Unders

Nov 07, 2019 11:00 PM EST

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Kyle Shanahan

  • Sean Koerner projects spreads and over/unders for every Week 10 NFL game using his power ratings.
  • He uses these power ratings -- and analysis -- to recommend the best bets.

This week’s 12-game slate features three double-digit favorites and already lots of line movement.

Like every week, I’ll use my projected spreads and over/unders to identify the best bets, so let’s run through every matchup and identify my favorite picks for Week 10.

Odds as of Wednesday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Chargers at Raiders

Current odds: Chargers -1; 49
My Projections: Chargers -1; 47.5

Thursday Night Football

The Raiders opened as 1.5-point favorites and early sharp action has flipped it to Chargers -1. The new line move appears to have wiped out the value that was offered on Los Angeles at the opening.

However, betting on the Chargers on the road is usually a narrative I tend to push as they’re 14-5 against the spread on the road over the past three seasons. This trend is rooted in their lack of true home-field advantage at Dignity Health Park — it’s a smaller stadium and there’s typically a near 50/50 split of home/away fans in attendance.

The total is where we may be able to find more value as it’s been bet up from 47.5 to 49.

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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