Koerner’s Week 10 NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Rankings: Best ATS Bets & Straight-Up Picks

Credit:

Mitchell Layton-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Baltimore Ravens mascot

  • Sean Koerner uses his proprietary model and projections to identify his best against-the-spread picks and straight-up bets.
  • You'll find his Week 10 rankings below, as well as a spreadsheet to return personalized rankings based on the odds you input.

Whether you’re playing pick’em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick ’em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.

Let’s quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 10 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.


Odds as of Wednesday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).


NFL Week 10 Pick ‘Em Confidence Ratings Methodology

These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.

To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the “true” odds are for every matchup.

In theory, sportsbooks’ lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).

Now let’s start with my straight-up ratings for Week 10 then wrap it up with ATS.


Go To: Full SU Ratings | Custom ATS Ratings


Straight-Up Confidence Ratings

T-1. Saints

Matchup: vs. ATL
Confidence Rating: 84.1%

T-1. Colts

Matchup: vs. MIA
Confidence Rating: 84.1%

3. Ravens

Matchup: @ CIN
Confidence Rating: 80.8%

4. 49ers

Matchup: vs. SEA
Confidence Rating: 71.4%

5. Packers

Matchup: vs. CAR
Confidence Rating: 68.4%

6. Buccaneers

Matchup: vs. ARI
Confidence Rating: 66.8%

7. Chiefs

Matchup: @ TEN
Confidence Rating: 65.2%

8. Rams

Matchup: @ PIT
Confidence Rating: 62%

T-9. Browns

Matchup: vs. BUF
Confidence Rating: 60.3%

T-9. Cowboys

Matchup: vs. MIN
Confidence Rating: 60.3%

11. Bears

Matchup: vs. DET
Confidence Rating: 58.6%

12. Giants

Matchup: @ NYJ
Confidence Rating: 55.2%

13. Chargers

Matchup: @ OAK
Confidence Rating: 51.7%

14. Raiders

Matchup: vs. LAC
Confidence Rating: 48.3%

15. Jets

Matchup: vs. NYG
Confidence Rating: 44.8%

16. Lions

Matchup: @ CHI
Confidence Rating: 41.4%

T-17. Bills

Matchup: @ CLE
Confidence Rating: 39.7%

T-17. Vikings

Matchup: @ DAL
Confidence Rating: 39.7%

19. Steelers

Matchup: vs. LAR
Confidence Rating: 38%

20. Titans

Matchup: vs. KC
Confidence Rating: 34.8%

21. Cardinals

Matchup: @ TB
Confidence Rating: 33.2%

22. Panthers

Matchup: @ GB
Confidence Rating: 31.6%

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey

23. Seahawks

Matchup: @ SF
Confidence Rating: 28.6%

24. Bengals

Matchup: vs. BAL
Confidence Rating: 19.2%

T-25. Falcons

Matchup: @ NO
Confidence Rating: 15.9%

T-25. Dolphins

Matchup: @ IND
Confidence Rating: 15.9%


Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings


Against the Spread Confidence Ratings

I’ve outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Wednesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.

1. Colts

Spread: -10
Opponent: vs. MIA

2. Jets

Spread: 2.5
Opponent: vs. NYG

T-3. Titans

Spread: 5.5
Opponent: vs. KC

T-3. Browns

Spread: -2.5
Opponent: vs. BUF

5. Buccaneers

Spread: -4.5
Opponent: vs. ARI

6. Falcons

Spread: 13
Opponent: @ NO

7. 49ers

Spread: -6
Opponent: vs. SEA

8. Bengals

Spread: 10
Opponent: vs. BAL

T-9. Raiders

Spread: 1.5
Opponent: vs. LAC

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Oakland Raiders wide receiver Hunter Renfrow (13), tight end Darren Waller (83), quarterback Derek Carr (4).

T-9. Steelers

Spread: 3.5
Opponent: vs. LAR

T-11. Packers

Spread: -5.5
Opponent: vs. CAR

T-11. Cowboys

Spread: -3
Opponent: vs. MIN

T-13. Bears

Spread: -2.5
Opponent: vs. DET

T-13. Lions

Spread: 2.5
Opponent: @ CHI

T-15. Vikings

Spread: 3
Opponent: @ DAL

T-15. Panthers

Spread: 5.5
Opponent: @ GB

T-17. Rams

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ PIT

T-17. Chargers

Spread: -1.5
Opponent: @ OAK

19. Ravens

Spread: -10
Opponent: @ CIN

20. Seahawks

Spread: 6
Opponent: @ SF

21. Saints

Spread: -13
Opponent: vs. ATL

22. Cardinals

Spread: 4.5
Opponent: @ TB

T-23. Bills

Spread: 2.5
Opponent: @ CLE

T-23. Chiefs

Spread: -5.5
Opponent: @ TEN

25. Giants

Spread: -2.5
Opponent: @ NYJ

26. Dolphins

Spread: 10
Opponent: @ IND


Custom Confidence Ratings

Your league might be using different odds, in which case, you’ll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.

Note that you’ll want to make sure to add the “-” in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column L.

Here’s an example of what the sheet looks like:

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