Koerner: How I’m Betting Travis Kelce, C.J. Anderson Props in NFL Conference Championships
USA Today Sports. Travis Kelce and C.J. Anderson.
- Sean Koerner runs through his favorite player prop bets for the AFC and NFL Championship Games of the NFL playoffs, including 4 long shot "first TD" props.
- The players he analyzes below includes Chiefs TE Travis Kelce and Rams RB C.J. Anderson.
We have an awesome prop tool at FantasyLabs, where we compare the player props from various sportsbooks to my projections to show where you can find the most betting value.
Bets with a Bet Quality of 10 have gone 235-119 (64%) this season, so you can find some serious value.
Below, I’ll dive into two props I especially like for this Sunday’s AFC and NFC Championship Games: Rams at Saints and Patriots at Chiefs.
But again, be sure to check out our industry-leading prop tool for more props offering value.
Player Props: Rams vs. Saints
C.J. Anderson under 53.5 rushing yards -118 (FanDuel)
I haven’t seen any other book offering this prop, but 53.5 is way too high and I expect the market to settle closer to 45.5 on this.
There’s no denying that Anderson has been one of the biggest surprises in the league over the past month. He’s posted three straight games of 125-plus rushing yards and looked impressive in last week’s playoff win over the Cowboys.
His heavy usage last week (23 carries for 123 yards) came even with Todd Gurley back in the lineup as the Rams controlled the game with a big lead for most of the game.
This week at New Orleans should be a different story. It’s much more likely LA will be in a tight game or playing from behind.
Both scenarios will likely mean the Rams give Gurley 25-plus touches this week as they try to make it to the Super Bowl.
In order to take the over on this prop you likely need Anderson to get 12-plus carries. As good as he has looked, I’m afraid that isn’t a 50/50 chance.
The value is currently on the under at this price.
According to my projections, a fair line for this would be 45.5, so if other books post anything higher than that, I’d still advocate for a bet.
Player Props: Patriots vs. Chiefs
Travis Kelce under 91.5 receiving yards -118 (FanDuel)
It’s always hard betting against Kelce, but this is a number and a spot where it is a +EV play.
Our own Ian Hartitz had a good breakdown on our Fantasy Flex podcast this week of how Bill Belichick is likely to scheme the Patriots’ defensive gameplan to attempt to shut Kelce down.
While Kelce was able to exploit soft spots in the Colts’ zone defense last week for 7/108/0, the Patriots’ heavy man-coverage scheme is better equipped to keep him in check.
He put up just 5/61/0 when these two teams met back in Week 5.
A fair line for this prop would be 82.5 yards.