Patriots vs. Buccaneers Odds & Betting Predictions - November 9, 2025

TreVeyon Henderson ⬆️ 23.5 Receiving Yards (-110 @ BetMGM)(NE) Collab w/ @HammeredLines 🤝 Last week we saw Henderson log 75% of the backfield snaps despite only out-carrying Jennings 14 to 11. Henderson caught 4 of 6 targets for 32 yards, tying for the team lead in reception and targets against ATL. Henderson led the team in passing snaps last week, out-snapping Jennings 36 to 4. ATL was a much tougher matchup than he'll get today. ATL only allows the 29th most receiving yards to opposing back per game this season. Meanwhile, thanks to TB's blitz-heavy approach, they allow THE MOST receiving yards per game to opposing running backs (58.3). With a blitz-heavy scheme, screens are more effective and with pressure, Henderson can always be a quick outlet option for Maye. In another game without Rhamondre, Henderson should be the lead back here. He may still split touches with Jennings, but Henderson should continue to dominate the passing down work. Here are team's RB1's receiving yardage and if they cleared their receiving lines: Alvin Kamara: 24 rec yards ✅ Jahmyr Gibbs: 82 rec yards ✅ Christian McCaffrey: 57 rec yards ✅ Kenneth Walker: 0 rec yards ❌ Zach Charbonnet: 12 rec yards ✅ Saquon Barkley: 31 rec yards ✅ Breece Hall: 31 rec yards ✅ Nick Chubb: 29 rec yards ✅ Bijan Robinson: 100 rec yards ✅ So 8 of the last 9 have cashed with only Walker falling short. Walker and Charb have a near 50/50 split and Darnold holds the LOWEST target rate to running backs this season. This looks like an awesome spot for Henderson and there might be some ladder opportunity!

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The Patriots WR room is a bit tricky to project with Kayshon Boutte out, but last week we saw rookie Kyle Williams essentially take over Boutte’s role one-for-one. Demario Douglas has also been playing too well to keep his routes run rate capped around 30–40%, so I expect his playing time to climb as well. All of that movement likely leaves Hollins around a 55-60% routes run rate (maybe lower) and I think the market is overrating how much Boutte’s absence helps him. Any additional snaps for Douglas should either cut into Hollins’ playing time or his target share (Douglas has commanded a way higher target rate than Boutte). He’s also been running a bit lucky on efficiency, catching 87% of his targets despite a 10-yard average depth of target. His expected catch rate is closer to 67%, so he’s due for some regression the market isn’t pricing in. I’m projecting him closer to 2.2 receptions, with roughly a 60% chance to stay under 2.5.

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This is such a fascinating game. Neither team is probably quite as good as its record, and this is an interesting test for Drake Maye against Todd Bowles' rested defense since the Patriots have played such a soft schedule. It's an intriguing matchup of coaching styles and personnel groupings. Neither team should run much given the strength of both run defenses, but both offenses look likely to be missing key names. The Bucs are still not sure to get Bucky Irving or Chris Godwin back even after the bye, and the Patriots may be without Kayshon Boutte and Rhamondre Stevenson. Both defenses have been good against base 11 personnel, but both offenses prefer to play in 12, with multiple tight ends on the field. The Bucs have leapt from 19% in 12 personnel the first five games to 39% the last three games with so many WRs hurt. That means Cade Otton as usual, but it's also meant an increase in Payne Durham snaps,from around 25% to almost half over the last three games. You're forgiven if you haven't noticed, though. Durham has one single target all season and didn't catch it, so he's yet to have a reception, despite all that time on the field. The Patriots are tied for sixth in most TDs allowed to opposing TEs, and it's not exactly a murderer's row — guys like Tommy Tremble, Mitchell Evans, and Taysom Hill. Could Payne Durham join the list? Let's find out at +1000 for an Anytime TD (bet365) for a guy that should be on the field around half the time in what should be a high-scoring game. The truth, though, is that I stumbled onto the Durham price while looking for Otton props, because he gets almost the entire TE workload for this team in the passing game. The Patriots allow the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. They've already allowed at least four receptions to eight different TEs, four in the last three games alone. They've also allowed TE reception games of 8, 9, 10, and 10. Those are usually split up among a few guys, but in Tampa, it's usually just Otton catching passes at TE! Otton had only six catches the first four games of the season, but he's had 20 in the last four, with 4+ catches in all of them and 5.0 per game. He has at least four catches in over half of his last 20 games, including games with 7, 8, 8, and 9 receptions. I was hoping to play Otton over 3.5 receptions, but his line posted at 4.5, so I'll skip the median outcome and go for the high-end numbers with Tampa Bay so shorthanded and lacking pass catching options. Play the Otton receptions escalator: seven catches for +350, eight for +700, and 9+ for +1200, all at bet365.

Drake Maye over 28.5 Rush Yds (-110 at BetMGM or Bet365) Drake Mayve over 5.5 Rush Att (-105 at BetMGM) Drake Maye's dropbacks have strongly correlated with the Patriots average second half scoring margin. In two losses where the Pats trailed by an average of nearly 6 points per play in the 2nd half, Maye had an average of 50 dropbacks. In the five games they led by anywhere from a half point to 5.5 points per play, he always had between 30 and 40 dropbacks. And in the one 2H blowout win Maye had just 21 dropbacks. That's all important because the Patriots are 2.5-point underdogs to Tampa Bay on the road, and while I make this game closer to a pick'em, even then that means Maye would project for around 39.25 dropbacks. Maye's scramble rate this year has been 11.6% of dropbacks despite facing a slightly unfavorable opposing defensive schedule for scramble rates. However, Tampa Bay is clearly the team that allows the highest scramble rate of the teams he will have faced, as the Bucs rank No. 2 in raw scramble rated allowed and No. 1 in QB-adjusted scramble rate over expectation allowed. The Bucs are allowing QBs to run for a 3.3% higher absolute scramble rate than their base rates, or a 38.1% relatively higher scramble rate. That would put Maye's scramble rate expectation at around 15-16%. Simple math suggests a 15% scramble rate on 39.25 dropbacks is a shade under 5.9 scrambles expected, and that's using a neutral second half game script instead of one where the Patriots are more likely to be slightly trailing than not based off the spread. Maye's scrambles have gone for just over 7 yards, while the Bucs allow just 6.7 yards per QB scramble, both below the NFL average of 7.7 yards. So even at around 6.1 yards per scramble, I'm getting north of 35 yards expected on scrambles alone as a somewhat conservative estimate. With reduced kneel down potential and a designed run/QB sneak or two added in, I'm projecting Maye closer to 40 yards rushing, with a median closer to 32.5 yards. Splitting 1u with half a unit each on att and yds

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49% of the bets 75% of the handle is on the Bucs and this number is parked at 2.5. The market is telling you which side is the sharp one. Bucs getting healthier, facing a team that has won 6 straight, overdo for some Pats regression here.

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