Buccaneers vs. Seahawks Odds & Betting Predictions - October 5, 2025

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Tailing @wheatonbrando

As the current President/CEO/founder of the Zach Charbonnet fan club, it brings me no pleasure to fade him for the first time. But if there were ever a spot, it’s this one. Last week we saw Kenneth Walker reclaim his early-down role, while Charbs continued handling most of the passing-down and goal-line work. That makes it unlikely he sees much more than 10 or so carries here, especially in a game where Seattle could face a rare trailing script. They’ve only trailed 8% of the time this season (3rd-lowest), but as 3.5-point favorites they project to trail closer to 34% of the game.. a +26% increase over their baseline. That kind of game flow combined with the No. 1 run defense in DVOA is a tough setup. Charbs has also struggled in Kubiak’s new scheme, averaging just 2.5 yards per carry (partly because so many of his touches have come in short-yardage spots). I still think he’ll improve as the season goes, but this week is rough. I project him closer to 35 yards with about a 60% chance of staying under 40.5.

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@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/BHq4lSblaXb

Seattle is my favorite side of the week. I liked Seahawks -2.5 Sunday night when the line reopened. That disappeared quickly as this line his -3 and even -3.5 at most books, but I still like Seattle at the best number you can get. It sucks to lose the key number, but in this case the line move is because the Bucs have a barrage of injuries — and that only makes me like Seattle even more. Mike Evans is out, and Chris Godwin is still rounding back into form off his long injury. The right side of the offensive line remains out too, with LT Tristan Wirfs still ramping back up. The secondary enters the week banged up too, so that means cluster injuries at the three toughest positions. It looks increasingly likely that dynamic RB Bucky Irving is limited or out too. Even Baker Mayfield is playing hurt. Seattle, on the other hand, is playing on extended rest after a Thursday game, and I love this spot for the Seahawks. They have the better defense, the better offense so far, better coaching, and the far healthier team. The Seahawks defense leads the league in DVOA, top three against both the run and the pass. Mike Macdonald's unit should get after Mayfield with all those Bucs O-line injuries, and Tampa has struggled to run the ball this season and may be without Irving. Tampa's run defense has been terrific, but the Bucs are beatable against the pass with little pass rush and injuries in the secondary. And don't look now, but Seattle has the #2 passing offense by DVOA. Sam Darnold has been outstanding to start the season, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a breakout star. The Seahawks also have about as big a special teams advantage as you can have in this one, first in DVOA by a wide margin while the Bucs are arguably the league's worst special teams unit, losing to Philly with a blocked punt TD and being hurt repeatedly in this overlooked area. I really think folks are sleeping on Seattle right now, my No. 6 power rated team, and I think the Seahawks could even win by double digits. Six of Macdonald's 13 wins so far have been by double digits with Seattle, with an average margin of victory of 10.5 points. Baker Mayfield is 17-26-1 ATS against teams over .500 (32%). Give me Seattle -3, and I'll place a portion of the bet on Seahawks -9.5 at +215 too (FanDuel). I also love investing in Seahawks to make the playoffs (-115, ESPN Bet). This is the second-highest leverage game of the week per PFF, with Seattle 39% to make the playoffs with a loss here but 66% with a win. FTN already has Seattle at -200, so if you like the Seahawks in this game, you should grab a playoff ticket too.

Smaller bet. Seattle is 3rd in the NFL scoring 8.8ppg in the 1stQ, the Bucs have struggled with slow starts (3.3ppg in the first)

Will be my favorite side of the week. Missed 2.5 cuz Bucs have big injuries, so grabbing the 3 now while it’s there. == Seattle is my favorite side of the week. I liked Seahawks -2.5 Sunday night when the line reopened. That disappeared quickly as this line his -3 and even -3.5 at most books, but I still like Seattle at the best number you can get. It sucks to lose the key number, but in this case the line move is because the Bucs have a barrage of injuries — and that only makes me like Seattle even more. Mike Evans is out, and Chris Godwin is still rounding back into form off his long injury. The right side of the offensive line remains out too, with LT Tristan Wirfs still ramping back up. The secondary enters the week banged up too, so that means cluster injuries at the three toughest positions. It looks increasingly likely that dynamic RB Bucky Irving is limited or out too. Even Baker Mayfield is playing hurt. Seattle, on the other hand, is playing on extended rest after a Thursday game, and I love this spot for the Seahawks. They have the better defense, the better offense so far, better coaching, and the far healthier team. The Seahawks defense leads the league in DVOA, top three against both the run and the pass. Mike Macdonald's unit should get after Mayfield with all those Bucs O-line injuries, and Tampa has struggled to run the ball this season and may be without Irving. Tampa's run defense has been terrific, but the Bucs are beatable against the pass with little pass rush and injuries in the secondary. And don't look now, but Seattle has the #2 passing offense by DVOA. Sam Darnold has been outstanding to start the season, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a breakout star. The Seahawks also have about as big a special teams advantage as you can have in this one, first in DVOA by a wide margin while the Bucs are arguably the league's worst special teams unit, losing to Philly with a blocked punt TD and being hurt repeatedly in this overlooked area. I really think folks are sleeping on Seattle right now, my No. 6 power rated team, and I think the Seahawks could even win by double digits. Six of Macdonald's 13 wins so far have been by double digits with Seattle, with an average margin of victory of 10.5 points. Baker Mayfield is 17-26-1 ATS against teams over .500 (32%). Give me Seattle -3, and I'll place a portion of the bet on Seahawks -9.5 at +215 too (FanDuel). I also love investing in Seahawks to make the playoffs (-115, ESPN Bet). This is the second-highest leverage game of the week per PFF, with Seattle 39% to make the playoffs with a loss here but 66% with a win. FTN already has Seattle at -200, so if you like the Seahawks in this game, you should grab a playoff ticket too.

Think it makes sense to grab under 3 here with Bucs injury situation plus spot. Seahawks should be close to fully healthy. Could see this being a Baker 3 pick game which means he’ll throw 5 and lead a last second comeback after Seahawks FG gets blocked.