The New England Patriots (7-2) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) clash in Week 10 on Sunday, Nov. 9. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla. Patriots vs Bucs will broadcast on CBS.
The Buccaneers are 2.5-point favorites over the Patriots on the spread (Buccaneers -2.5), with the over/under set at 48 points. Tampa Bay is a -150 moneyline favorite to win; New England is +125 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Week 10 preview and Patriots vs Buccaneers prediction.
Patriots vs Buccaneers Prediction
- Patriots vs Buccaneers pick: Over 48 (-110)
My Patriots vs Buccaneers best bet is on the over. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Patriots vs Buccaneers Odds
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | -150 |
Patriots vs Buccaneers Week 10 Preview
Some books have the total for Patriots–Bucs listed at 48, some as high as 48.5 — either way, it's an appealing number to attack as this should be a high-scoring game.
These defenses have made plays at times this season, but neither is particularly great. Both teams funnel to the pass, and both Drake Maye and Baker Mayfield can move around in the pocket. That mobility, combined with their ability to make big plays, creates favorable conditions for explosive passing.
Blitzes will pull defenders out of coverage on both sides, and the Patriots will likely use single-high looks, which sets up even more opportunities for points.
The Buccaneers are banged up offensively. Notably, Chris Godwin is likely still out, as is Bucky Irving. The Bucs won’t be at peak form at receiver for the rest of the year, but that hasn’t mattered much in terms of production.
Mayfield has already thrown touchdowns to the likes of Ryan Miller, Kameron Johnson and Tez Johnson — essentially everyone on the roster. Of course, he'll also have star rookie Emeka Egbuka at his disposal.
Long story short: The Bucs offense has proven it can still function effectively despite missing their key pieces.
Since Week 4, the Patriots have put up at least 23 points and have topped out at 42. They've averaged 29.5 PPG over that six-game span thanks to Maye breaking out in his sophomore season.
Much like Mayfield, Maye is making use out of everyone on the roster, throwing touchdowns to Stefon Diggs, DeMario Douglas, Kayshon Boutte, and Hunter Henry among many others.
Patriots vs Buccaneers Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Patriots defense has been trending upward, but they aren't strong against the pass despite the presence of Christian Gonzalez, who is expected to play after suffering a head injury in Week 9. That’s really all the setup needed for a play on the over for today's game.
Running the ball won’t be a factor either.
The Patriots have only managed to run effectively in a couple of games this year, and while the Buccaneers ran heavily against the Saints, they likely won't be able to do the same against New England.
This matchup should favor the pass, and any funky turnovers or special teams plays could quickly push this game over the number.
Pick: Over 48 (-110)
Spread
I'm not betting either side of the spread in this game.
Moneyline
I will also be steering clear of the moneyline market.
Over/Under
My Buccaneers vs Patriots betting prediction is on the over.
