Eagles vs. Buccaneers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 28, 2025

Boosted

Devonta Smith under 4.5 receptions (-110 BetMGM) Since the start of last year, when AJ Brown, Smith, and Dallas Goedert were all healthy, Smith has averaged 4.44 rec in 9 games, and stayed under 4.5 in 7 of 9, so already before applying any adjustments we're working from a good spot Two major factors play a role here: 1. A tough matchup when he lines up in the slot (expected 60%+) against rookie 3rd round CB Jacob Parrish, who's allowed just 7 rec on 8 targets through 3 games on 94 coverage routes faced 2. The pressure TB is expected to bring on defense In that 9-game sample with the healthy receiving trio, Devonta Smith has been targeted 7 times on 105 routes when Jalen Hurts faces pressure The aDOT of the targets is farther downfield at 11.2 yards, resulting in just 4 receptions on those 7 targets. TB is currently No. 2 in the NFL in pressure rate over expected (PrROE), and faces an eagles o-line that's allowed the second-highest PrROE according to Fantasy Points data, so Hurts could be in for a ton of scrambling/sacks and more long throws, making Smith's expected targets per route and catch rate drop I'm projecting closer to 4.1 receptions with a 61% chance of staying under 4.5 I wouldn't touch his yardage under, because it's more likely if he does catch passes, they are of the longer variety since Hurts should be under a lot of pressure

Tailing @nick_giffen

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There may be some value on the receptions prop for Cade Otton. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 2.36 receptions, and the oddsmakers are implying 3.34. The model believes there is a 59% chance he records fewer than 2.5 receptions. If you can get the under at +155 or better, there is some great value here. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz