As the NFL Playoffs begin, I've zeroed in on the two Saturday Wild Card Round matchups, as well as a possible Divisional round lookahead.
We have a David vs. Goliath situation in both of these matchups as the Los Angeles Rams take on the NFC South champion Carolina Panthers, while the Green Bay Packers visit the NFC North champion Chicago Bears.
Let's dive into my NFL Wild Card picks — which include spread predictions, a bunch of unders and a same-game parlay — for Rams vs Panthers and Packers vs Bears on Saturday, January 10.
NFL Wild Card Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:30 p.m. | |
  | 8:00 p.m. | |
 | TBD | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rams vs Panthers Spread Prediction
The Rams are the biggest road playoff favorite in our system — and they should be.
Los Angeles is the best team in football, and the Rams have mostly lapped the competition.
I have the Rams first in my power ratings with a bullet. I'd make them more than a field goal favorite on a neutral field against every team in the league but Seattle; they'd be more than touchdown favorites on a neutral field against half the playoff field.
The Rams led the league in Offensive DVOA both running and passing, and they did that against a top schedule, playing 13 of their 17 games against teams with at least eight wins. They also had the lowest offensive variance in the league — a remarkable combo, meaning they were outstanding and lapped the rest of the league week after week, game after game, regardless of the competition.
L.A. had eight wins this season by 14 or more points, and unlike most teams this good, it has actually been more unlucky, with all four losses requiring goofy late bounces.
Many teams pile up gaudy records with close wins; flip every one-score game this season and the Rams are still 13-4, best in the NFC.
On top of all that, the Rams might actually be a bit underrated given their relatively poor play of late, because the team is getting key names back for the playoffs. You know about the league's best red zone threat, Davante Adams, but the defense falls way off without DB Quentin Lake, and LT Alaric Jackson is their most important blocker.
The Rams are all that and a bag of peanuts — consider that they're nearly the Super Bowl favorites even as a 5-seed, with an extra game and likely zero home games compared to 1-seed Seattle.
That's how good the Rams are.
And then there's the Panthers.
Carolina is the worst team in the postseason field by any measure. With a -69 point differential, it is one of the worst playoff teams ever. They finished 24th in DVOA, near the bottom quarter of the league, and have no particular discernible strength. Flip its one-score results and it would have gone 4-13 — worst in the league.
The Panthers laid a complete egg against the Bucs in a de facto playoff opportunity last week, but got here through the back door.
Carolina went 2-5 against playoff teams this season, with an average score of 28-to-14, scoring 16 or fewer points in all but one game. The Panthers averaged just 10.2 PPG in those five losses, losing by 11, 16, 17, 29, and 31 points.
Of course, one of those two wins was against the Rams — so let's talk about it.
That game should make us more confident for L.A., not less.
The Rams absolutely throttled Carolina for 98% of that game. They finished with 7.4 yards a play and a massive 61-to-39% Success Rate advantage, including 76% for the Rams on running plays, the best by any team all season. L.A. only even made it to third down five times!
L.A. lost because Matthew Stafford threw a tipped interception in the end zone, a pick-6 on his next pass, and because Bryce Young completed two outlier long TD passes on fourth down, a swing of 11.5 EPA on those two plays alone.
But the Rams were better in that game. Far better. Most games with those underlying numbers end in a Rams victory by three touchdowns.
This one might.
This just isn't the matchup for Carolina.
The Panthers rank 27th in EPA per play defending motion plays. The Rams rank top four in both volume and EPA per play in motion, a Sean McVay staple.
Carolina ranks 31st in EPA on third down defensively and 32nd in pressure, so Stafford should pick them apart. The Panthers are bottom 10 against WR1s by DVOA — oh hey, Puka Nacua — and 30th against tight ends, with the Rams loading up on 13 personnel.
L.A. should be especially successful running, like it was in the first matchup. Carolina is particularly terrible against inside runs, and the Rams have exploded running inside over the back half of the season, leaping from 22nd to 8th in EPA per play.
Meanwhile, Carolina is the worst team in the playoff field at finding explosives, and the Panthers also rank 25th in red zone efficiency on offense, up against the No. 3 defense in that part of the field.
So the Panthers probably won't move the ball routinely, shouldn't break off many big, long plays, and likely won't punch it in on the rare times they do get close to scoring, and they also have virtually no shot of stopping the Rams unless they stop themselves.
Ruh roh.
Of course, playoff games are never this easy.
It's still an outdoor rainy game for a dome team, and it's still a road playoff game. Any number of underdog trends will remind you to bet on home playoff dogs, especially teams at .500 or below this opening round.
Those are small-sample trends, though, and they ignore some trends pointing strongly in the opposite direction.
Wild Card round hosts that missed last year's playoffs are just 14-30 ATS (32%), and quarterbacks making their playoff debut against experienced postseason QBs are 20-39-1 ATS (34%).
Carolina wasn't supposed to be here, Bryce Young has never been here before, and history strongly suggests this could be a tough transition.
As for the Rams, who earned this softer matchup with a win last week, road teams on a one-game win streak are 16-4-1 ATS (80%) this round in our system.
And about that rematch? Teams that lost to a non-division opponent in their 12th game or later are 7-2 ATS in the playoff rematch over the last decade, covering by over a touchdown. This is only the fourth instance in the past 25 years of such a playoff rematch where the losing team is favored by over a TD in the rematch — the previous four losers won the rematch by an average of 15 PPG.
Part of the reason teams often underperform as big favorites against these .500-type squads is that they mentally overlook them, already thinking about the next matchup.
The Rams already know not to overlook the Panthers — they just lost to them, and they'd likely be sitting at home enjoying a bye right now if they had won that game. Suffice to say, Carolina will have L.A.'s attention.
I bet Rams -10 Sunday night on the Hot Read, and I'm happy to take them -10.5.
I'm playing alt lines too, because this could get ugly.
Carolina has struggled to score against playoff opponents all season, and eight of the Rams' 12 wins have been by 14+ points, with three of them by at least 24.
I don't trust the Panthers to score, and the Rams should be able to name their number on Saturday in one of the biggest playoff mismatches I can remember.
Play Rams -12.5 at +118 (bet365) and put a portion of your bet on Rams -23.5 at +420 (FanDuel) in case this gets ugly.
Pick: Rams -12.5 (+118)
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Packers vs Bears Parlay; Over/Under Picks
The line on this game makes zero sense.
The Packers are road favorites?! Green Bay's market rating hasn't caught up to how poorly it has played down the stretch, losing four straight as it enters the playoffs.
The Packers ranked 9th in DVOA defensively over the first half of the season, but they're down to 24th over the last six weeks and fading hard, first against the pass and now against the run too. The rushing offense has also fallen off hard, with the line struggling.
The Bears aren't a good defense, but they're closer to league average over the back stretch of the season after returning several healthy bodies, and that makes this unit much better than Green Bay's. Chicago has the better defense and offense right now, and the Packers were just 2-4 against playoff teams this season.
Green Bay has also been far worse on the road defensively and bottom 10 on the season. Chicago has too, for that matter, ranked 30th on the road versus the top half of the league at home, but this game is in Chicago — yet another advantage for the Bears.
I make the Bears better than a field goal favorite at home, and that led me to grab the Bears -104 on the moneyline on Sunday night.
But the line has held tight and may even be creeping the other direction.
And after digging more into the matchup all week, I'm starting to see why.
The Packers rank top five in explosive plays on both offense and defense; the Bears rank bottom 10 defensively there, meaning Chicago's defense could hold up play after play all game, falter two or three times, and blow it anyway.
- Green Bay ranks top three in EPA on play-action passes; the Bears' defense is bottom 10.
- The Packers are top five in attacking the middle of the field; the Bears are bottom 10 again.
- Ditto defending 11 personnel, where Green Bay ranks No. 1.
The Packers are built specifically to attack Chicago's biggest weaknesses, even if they'll do so slowly and methodically with a run-heavy script that should work against a bottom-10 run defense.
Green Bay's defense could also find some answers. It ranks top 10 on just first downs, especially against the pass, and first downs are where Chicago has thrived all season at No. 2 in DVOA, falling to average on any other down. If the Packers force Caleb Williams to play in 2nd-and-long instead of 2nd-and-3 all game, that will be a huge swing.
The Packers' run defense isn't good, but it's much worse against inside runs; the Bears' rushing attack has been great, but is better outside. Chicago has shredded blitzes this season, but Green Bay blitzes among the least in football.
Green Bay also got to rest last week, while Chicago played all game and pushed.
Those trends warning us against the inexperience of Carolina and Bryce Young also warn us against Chicago and Caleb Williams, and they like the road team in division rematches in the playoffs, too.
I still have to bet the Bears since my numbers are so strong, and it's worth remembering that 7-seeds are just 1-10 SU since being added to the postseason picture, losing by 10 PPG.
Still, it's Packers-Bears.
Green Bay has won 27 of the last 32 meetings and 12 of the last 14, and it dominated seven of eight quarters this season, too, even with Jordan Love hurt for some of them.
The last time the Bears beat the Packers in the playoffs was — are you ready for this? — the Sunday after the attack on Pearl Harbor!
I'm not buying out of my Bears pick, but the matchup stuff has at least pushed me away from investing further.
Instead, I'm looking to invest in unders.
On a wintery Saturday in Chicago with possible winds and snow in freezing temperatures, it's a reminder that windy games have gone under 61% of the time the last five seasons.
Both teams want to run the ball a ton, and that should shorten the clock. That's typically Green Bay's M.O., too, playing the underdog script.
Home teams coming off a home loss are 10-0-1 to the under since 2016 in the playoffs.
I'm specifically looking to play first-half unders, though.
The Packers were 12-5 in the first half under this season, while Chicago was 11-6, a combined 68% hit rate. But both teams were 12-5 to the over in the second half.
Why is that?
Chicago's offense has been far better late in games, 20th by DVOA in the first half versus top five after halftime, including No. 2 in the final quarter. Ben Johnson has been a wizard at halftime adjustments. Chicago's defense has also been at its best by far in just the first quarter, No. 6 by DVOA there versus the bottom 10 every other quarter.
Green Bay trends in a similar direction offensively. The Packers are a league-average offense in the first quarter but rank top five every quarter after that. Matt LaFleur's offense can start maddeningly slow, easing into the waters before ramping things up late.
In the two games we saw these teams play already this season, there were just six and 17 points at the half — but 26 and 32 in the second halves. In fact, both games were 0-to-0 at the end of the first quarter, slowly easing things in.
I'm betting the first half under 22.5 (-104, BetRivers), and I'll build a little mineshaft along the way.
Play just the first quarter under 9.5 too at -115 (Fanatics) and sprinkle a scoreless first quarter at +575 (bet365).
In case a slow start does pair with a flurry of a finish yet again, you can also play a negatively correlated SGP using alt lines: first-half under 17.5 and second-half over 20.5 at +537 (FanDuel).
Every one of those bets has hit in both Packers-Bears games already this season. Let's hope they make them all 3-for-3.
Picks: First Half Under 22.5 (-104, BetRivers)
First Quarter Under 9.5 (-115, Fanatics)
Scoreless First Quarter (+575, bet365)
Parlay: 1st Half Under 17.5; 2nd Half Over 20.5 (+537, FanDuel)
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Packers vs Seahawks: Divisional Round Spread Pick
Each week in this column, I make a Lookahead pick for the following week's games. We'll continue that here for the playoffs since some books like FanDuel and DraftKings list contingent lines in advance of the various possible matchups.
This might actually be my favorite Lookahead pick of the entire season. I had to close and refresh my apps several times just to make sure I was seeing the line right!
Seattle -3.5 is just an outrageous number — my model makes this closer to Seattle -9 — well north of a touchdown!
The Seahawks continue to be overlooked in the market, despite earning the one-seed and the bye. Seattle is No. 2 in my power ratings, and it is much closer to the Rams at the top than it is to everyone else.
The Packers, with all their injuries, are ahead of only the Steelers and Panthers in my power ratings.
Green Bay's defense has faded hard down the stretch with injuries galore, and Seattle should find plenty of room to score. The Seahawks defense should also attack this failing offensive line and bait the run, limiting the Packers' explosives and shutting them down.
The Packers offense can grow stagnant if the explosives don't hit, and the defense can't stop anyone right now. Seattle also has a huge special teams advantage, which is just the formula to win a game as an underdog.
Green Bay is 2-4 against playoff teams while Seattle is 6-2. These teams just aren't in the same weight class.
History typically warns us to be careful betting on rested teams in the Divisional Round, but that's because this line should go up as the market adjusts, and that one-seed tax is often the line that gets covered by the underdog. Already this one is at -4.5 and rising at some books.
The market doesn't respect Chicago much, so even if the Packers win Saturday — as favorites, remember — it's hard to imagine this ducking below the key number. I think it goes the other way, and I'll feel very comfortable backing the rested, healthier, far better team if we get this matchup.
Take Seahawks -3.5 versus the Packers while it's available. I'm betting multiple units.
Pick: Seahawks -3.5
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Brandon's Wild Card Saturday Betting Card
- Rams -12.5 (+118; bet365); Rams -23.5 (+420; FanDuel)
- Packers-Bears First Half Under 22.5 (-104, BetRivers)
- Packers-Bears First Quarter Under 9.5 (-115, Fanatics)
- Packers-Bears Scoreless First Quarter (+575, bet365)
- Packers-Bears Parlay: First Half Under 17.5; Second-Half Over 20.5 (+537, FanDuel)
- Seahawks -3.5 (Divisional Round Lookahead Pick)
