The Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) and Chicago Bears (11-6) meet in the NFL Wild Card Round tonight. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET from Soldier Field in Chicago, Ill. Packers vs Bears will broadcast live on Prime Video.
The Packers are 2.5-point favorites on the spread (Packers -2.5; +100); the game total is 46.5 (-105o / -115u). The Packers are -130 favorites on the moneyline; the Bears are +110 underdogs.
Let's get into my Packers vs Bears prediction and Wild Card preview, plus the latest NFL odds, betting trends, inactives weather forecast, viewing information and more.
Packers vs Bears Predictions, Moneyline Pick
- Packers vs Bears pick: Packers 1st Half Moneyline (-110)
My Packers vs Bears best bet is the Packers first-half moneyline. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Packers vs Bears Odds
| Green Bay Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 +100 | 46.5 -105o / -115u | -130 |
| Chicago Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2.5 -120 | 46.5 -105o / -115u | +110 |
Packers vs Bears Wild Card Preview
When the Packers Have the Ball
The Packers limp into the playoffs on the back of a four-game losing streak, but they have a pretty decent excuse for the rough stretch.
It started with a loss to the first seed in the AFC in the Broncos. Then, in Week 16 they lost to the Bears in improbable fashion, as they had an expected win probability around 99%, according to most in-game models. That was also a game where Jordan Love had to exit early due to a concussion, which held him out for Green Bay's Week 17 loss to the Ravens. In Week 18, the Packers rested their starters and even opted to start their third-string QB Clayton Tune, who was a disaster in a 16-3 loss to the Vikings.
Public perception of the Packers is probably much lower than it should be considering they’re closer to full health. Love will be back for this game. Josh Jacobs is expected to be much closer to 100% after battling injuries later in the season, and the team was able to rest him quite a bit down the stretch.
RT Zach Tom (questionable) is hopeful to return from a back injury that has kept him out since Week 16. He’s the top lineman for the Packers, so his return would be massive. Plus, safety Evan Williams should be closer to 100% after dealing with a knee injury a few weeks ago.
Love has typically thrived against the Bears, and a big part of that is likely due to their inability to generate pressure. They’ve generated the sixth-lowest pressure rate this season, and the two starts Love had against Chicago were the cleanest and third-cleanest pockets he’s seen all year.
Part of that is because Montez Sweat has seen his pressure rate fall to its lowest level since 2021. He’s been a bit lucky to rack up 10 sacks — I have him closer to seven based on his pressure profile. Sweat, and the Bears overall, head into the playoffs due for some regression when it comes to sacks. Love also has the fourth-lowest pressure-to-sack rate and is consistently one of the tougher QBs to bring down.
The clean pocket matters even more because Love continues to show one of the biggest efficiency splits in the NFL between pressure and clean pockets. He ranks 13th in EPA/dropback when facing pressure; he is first in EPA/dropback from a clean pocket.
With Love expected to operate behind one of his cleanest pockets of the season, we should expect him to play closer to his ceiling. The Packers' WR room has dealt with injuries for much of the year, but this will be just the fifth game this season Love's had his top three WRs healthy (Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed). This unit may finally be fully healthy for the first time since Week 15, sans Tucker Kraft.
When the Bears Have the Ball
The Bears are also entering the playoffs on a losing streak following defeats to the 49ers and Lions. After having an incredible run of luck — going 6-2 in one-possession games over the first 16 weeks — they finally saw some regression over the final two games, losing by four and three points, respectively.
Games that finish within one score should generally be treated closer to coin flips. Sure, some coaches and players may be more “clutch” than others, but over time close games tend to regress, and teams that run hot in those spots often get skewed in public perception.
Micah Parsons was obviously a massive loss for the Packers defense. They ranked ninth with a 35.9% pressure rate before his injury, but over the three games since he went down that has fallen to 34.3%, roughly league average.
Caleb Williams should have a cleaner pocket than if Parsons were active, but he doesn’t benefit from clean pockets nearly as much as Love does. Williams ranks 12th in EPA/dropback under pressure, but just 20th from a clean pocket. That makes sense, as he tends to thrive playing out of structure, extending plays with his legs and either throwing downfield or scrambling.
The real story with the Bears offense is the emergence of their two top rookies down the stretch, with Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland seeing their playing time increase and both playing at a high level. I was high on both rookies entering the season and expected this offense to reach more of its ceiling later in the year once they had time to adjust to the NFL.
Rome Odunze, who missed the last few games with a foot injury, is expected to return for this game. That's good news for the Bears on paper, but I do wonder how his presence impacts the offense as a whole. It could take them a few series to recalibrate, and there's potential for dips in snaps and usage for Burden and Loveland — that would be a mistake.
A slower start would also be consistent with the Bears this season. They average 11.5 points in the first half, right around league average, but 14.1 points in the second half, which ranks fourth. As a result, they’ve gone 7-10 against the spread (ATS) in the first half and often rely on their patented late-game comeback runs.
Packers vs Bears Predictions, Moneyline Betting Analysis
The Packers are a luck-rankings play, and I’m going to be on them here. But as mentioned above, I think they specifically have more of an edge in the first half, given the Bears’ tendency to start slower and adjust later.
We’ve seen this exact script play out in both matchups this season, where Green Bay covered in the first half and the Bears covered in the second half, including their most recent comeback win.
I think Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur come in with the stronger opening game plan and execute it early, while the Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson combo is more dynamic and better suited to mid-game adjustments.
The Bears have benefited from a ton of luck and some wild comeback wins; I think that has inflated public perception a bit. More often than not, they dig themselves into early holes and then it becomes a race to see whether their late-game efficiency can bail them out.
Because of all this, the Packers first half moneyline is the play for me. I may also wait to see if +0.5 pops up (anything -125 or better would be ideal) on the spread. FanDuel is offering Packers +1.5 (-140), which is probably even better.
Be sure to follow me in the app for alerts when I post additional bets for this game or others, I’ll likely have 2+ plays per game this week.
Pick: Packers 1st Half Moneyline (-110)
Packers vs Bears Props
Kingsley Enagbare Tackles + Assists
Enagbare has seen his playing time trend up at times this season. He was just a 20-30% snap player over the first six weeks of the season, then Lukas Van Ness went down and Enagbare jumped into the 45–55% range.
Since that point, he’s cleared this number 64% of the time. However, he reached a new level following Micah Parsons’ injury and has averaged a 73% snap rate in those two games.
Enagbare has massive upside with that sort of playing time because he mixes in on 15% of run plays when he’s on the field, and this is a great matchup against the Bears, who have provided DEs with the third-most tackle opportunities.
Part of that is due to D’Andre Swift bouncing his runs outside at a high rate. It’s also a game where the weather could force teams to run the ball more, resulting in fewer downfield shots.
I’m projecting Enagbare to mix in on around three run plays, plus roughly a 50/50 chance to mix in on a pass play. He tackled Zay Flowers on a 1-yard screen pass in his last game in Week 17 and tends to mix in on those at a higher rate than most DEs.
Enagbare is also a positive regression candidate, according to my Sack Lunch model. He has just two sacks on the season, but I have him closer to 3.4 expected sacks.
He has a ton of upside tonight, and I don’t think the market is fully factoring in the uptick in playing time he’s seeing since Parsons went down.
I’m projecting Enagbare a full tackle higher with around a 70% chance to clear 2.5. I’m also taking 4+ tackles at +201 (I have that closer to ~50%) and 5+ tackles at +467 (I have that closer to +222).
Picks (DraftKings):
- Over 2.5 Tackles + Ast (-128)
- 4+ tackles (+201)
- 5+ tackles (+467)
Note: If lines/odds move by the time you read this story, make sure to follow Sean in the Action Network app to get alerts when he places a bet. These writeups, however, still offer invaluable insight into his process.
Packers vs Bears Betting Trends
- 72% of bets and 71% of the money are on the Bears to cover the spread
- 62% of bets and 60% of the money are on the over
- 64% of bets and 65% of the money are on the Bears moneyline
Packers vs Bears Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Soldier Field in Chicago, Ill. |
| Date: | Saturday, Jan. 10 |
| Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | Prime Video |
Packers vs Bears Injuries, Inactives
Packers Inactives
- T Zach Tom (back/knee)
- WR Dontayvion Wicks (concussion)
- QB Desmond Ridder(3rd QB)
- CB Jaylin Simpson
- DL Collin Oliver
- WR Jakobie Keeney-James
Bears Inactives
- WR Jahdae Walker
- CB CJ Gardner-Johnson (concussion)
- LB Amen Ogbongbemiga (concussion)
- LB Ruben Hyppolite II
- OL Luke Newman
- DL Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (concussion)
- Case Keenum (3rd QB)
