Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's a game spread, total, or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime TD props for the Wild Card Round of the playoffs on Saturday, January 10.
If you plan to tail these NFL Wild Card TD bets, please use proper bankroll management. For players listed as “Verdict,” those are 1-unit bets. If a player is listed in “Verdict” as a “Sprinkle,” then it would be a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long shots.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Wild Card Saturday.
Rams vs. Panthers
Out of all the NFL playoff games on Super Wild Card Weekend, this one feels the most likely to be a blowout. The Panthers have the worst point differential of any playoff team and are 10.5-point home underdogs.
The market has clearly made it known that they don’t expect a repeat of the Panthers upsetting the Rams like they did in the regular season, which means bettors who want to take Panthers TD scorers should be looking for value in pass-catchers.
If the Panthers are expected to be in a trailing game script like the spread indicates, this means passing frequency will naturally increase, and facing a Rams team that has played zone at the seventh-highest rate during the season, with an emphasis on Cover 3, the only player that really stands out for Carolina is WR Jalen Coker at +320.
I think WR Tetairoa McMillan will still have a good game, and may even score. He does technically have better receiver metrics like targets per route run vs. zone defense, but I think the Rams will be shifting their coverage over to double-up on him so they don’t get burned by a route over the top.
This is where Coker comes in, because he has a lower aDOT on his routes and can be a bailout option if the first read (T-Mac) is doubled.
As the season has gone along, Coker has started to emerge as the legit WR2 in this offense, seeing his snap share and route-rate increase over WR Xavier Legette. He’s scored three TDs this season with one of those coming against the Rams.
Rams anytime touchdown odds are priced accordingly this week, especially near the top where there’s very little value.
WR Davante Adams is returning from injury — he’s around -135 — while WR Puka Nacua and RB Kyren Williams fall in a similar bucket at -110 or lower.
What we know about the Rams when they get to the goal line: they throw fade routes to Adams or hand it off to Williams.
I’d like to be fun and say Adams, but with him coming off injury and the emergence of the Rams' TE carousel, I think it’s best to roll the dice on Williams to score 2+ TDs.
Williams and Blake Corum scored when they played the Panthers during the regular season, but the Rams have been cautious with Williams during the season, giving Corum some carries to keep both fresh for the playoffs.
But now that we’re in the playoffs, head coach Sean McVay isn’t going to lean on the “hot hand.” In three playoff games over the last two seasons, Williams saw at least an 80% rush share with no other RB seeing more than three carries.
Plus, with this being a large spread, the Rams may run up the score, allowing Williams to score multiple times against a defense that finished the season 24th in defensive DVOA vs. the run.
Verdict: Kyren Williams 2+ TDs +450 | Jalen Coker +350
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Packers vs. Bears
Although the Packers skidded to end the season with QB Jordan Love suffering a concussion, he is expected back for the Wild Card Round, which means we can feel better about betting on Packers WRs, and my sights are set on WR Jayden Reed.
Reed hasn’t scored since he returned from injury in Week 14, but the encouraging news is he’s seeing a lot of the field. In those five games, he has the same route-participation rate as WR Romeo Doubs, while seeing the second-most targets behind WR Christian Watson.
Now, the reason why we’re getting him at the longest odds is because he typically lines up in the slot at a 73% rate and won’t be out there for 2-WR formations.
I’m still not deterred because the Bears defense has been brutal vs. WRs this year, with 20 passing TDs allowed (ranked 30th) and the third-most TDs in the NFL to slot receivers.
If you want to take Doubs or Christian Watson instead, that’s ok too, but given that both of the Bears starting CBs are healthy now, making their coverage above-average out wide, I think some targets could get redirected to Reed in the slot.
I know Bears WR Rome Odunze is expected back this week after missing five games with a foot injury, but that doesn’t sound too encouraging for an explosive WR against a team that limits explosive plays so well.
When the season started, I loved Odunze and bet him to score in each of the first four weeks of the season, but now, the lingering injury is worrisome, especially with the emergence of rookie WR Luther Burden.
With question marks on how that will shake out, I think we ride with old faithful WR DJ Moore to score a TD at +370.
Moore obviously isn’t the target machine he once was when he had 100+ targets in every season (except his rookie year), but he still managed to finish with six TDs and a rushing TD in his first year under Ben Johnson.
The factor for why I keep going back to Moore is his role in the offense hasn’t really fluctuated with Burden breaking out or Odunze getting hurt. He still ran WR1 routes with or without Odunze, while lining up in the slot at a career-high 31% rate for the season.
Given the stakes of this matchup, and Moore being the elder statesman of this offense, he is who I trust the most in this matchup with all the question marks surrounding Odunze and the WR3 role.
Verdict: Jayden Reed +240 | DJ Moore +370
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