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Your Ultimate Week 3 AAF Betting Guide: Picks, Analysis, More For All 4 Games

Feb 23, 2019 5:00 PM EST
Credit:

Courtesy of @TheAAF/Twitter. Pictured: Arizona QB John Wolford, Orland WR Charles Johnson

  • Ian Hartitz previews all four games in our Week 3 AAF betting guide, including Saturday's Arizona-Salt Lake and Sunday's Memphis-Orlando matchups.
  • Get the latest betting market information, analysis of key matchups, fantasy advice, picks for each game and more.

Week 2 of the Alliance of American Football league gave us the league’s highest scoring game yet, a pass so absurd that Patrick Mahomes was literally proud plus enough big hits and explosive plays to make everyone briefly forget that we’re watching football in the middle of February.

Now it’s time for Week 3. What follows is a preview of all four games featuring betting odds, trends, key matchups, injuries, daily fantasy edge and betting pick(s).

And if that’s not enough, we also have this lineup of comprehensive coverage:

Now let’s dig into this weekend’s games.

Betting Odds: Arizona Hotshots at Salt Lake Stallions

  • Spread: Arizona -4.5
  • Over/Under: 44
  • Time: 3 p.m. ET on Saturday
  • TV: B/R Live

Betting market: The Hotshots should be among every AAF diehard’s top two teams through 120 minutes of action. They’ve accordingly been bet up to 4.5-point favorites after opening at -3.5 against the Stallions.

The total, meanwhile, has been in a free fall after opening at 46.

Week 2 Takeaways

Arizona’s 20-18 Win Over Memphis

  • The Hotshots didn’t have their starting right or left tackle and accordingly struggled out of the gate before rallying from a 12-point deficit in the fourth quarter. Having the league’s No. 1 defense in yards allowed per play and pressure rate certainly had something to do with it.
  • Arizona continues to deploy the league’s most modern passing game. Head coach Rick Neuheisel has enabled quarterback John Wolford to lead all AAF quarterbacks in quickest time to attempt (2.39) as well as have the second-highest play-action percentage (30.6%).
  • Jhurell Pressley seemed locked in as the bell cow in Week 1, when he racked up a team-high 18 carries and played 44-of-75 snaps (59%). But that wasn’t the case last week. Pressley played 32-of-64 snaps (50%) and was out-carried 13-to-12 by Tim Cook. With scat back Justin Stockton also involved, this could be a three-back committee moving forward.

Salt Lake’s 12-9 Loss to Birmingham

  • This might’ve been the worst loss we’ve seen an AAF team suffer through two weeks. Salt Lake managed to miss three field goal attempts, botch a fourth due to a bad snap and lose a fumble inside Birminghams’ 10-yard line courtesy of Matt Asiata.
  • Salt Lake averaged more yards per rush (4.87) than pass (3.28) thanks in large part to its massive offensive line. Asiata’s (11 snaps) aforementioned fumble got him benched, as Joel Bouagnon (20) and Branden Oliver (23) racked up double-digit carries and were plenty involved in the passing game.
  • The passing game remains a bit of a work in progress, as only tight end Anthony Denham (12 targets), along with wide receivers De’Mornay Pierson-El (11) and Adonis Jennings (9), have more than five targets this season. They would all benefit from the expected return of Josh Woodrum, who exited at halftime in Week 1 against the Hotshots with a hamstring injury. Arizona led Salt Lake just 19-16 after two quarters, but went on to win convincingly 38-22.

Which team is healthier? Arizona

There are several health concerns on both sidelines.

Starting receiver Richard Mullaney (knee) didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday and isn’t expected to suit up this Saturday. His absence would mean more snaps for Josh Huff, who was limited in practice on Wednesday due to an illness before being upgraded to a full participant on Thursday. Wolford was also limited with a knee injury Wednesday, although he’s tentatively expected to suit up after being left off the report on Thursday.

Salt Lake is also banged up at wide receiver, as Kaelin Clay (hand) and Jordan Leslie (hamstring) were limited in practice on Wednesday. Clay appears to be good to go after getting in a full practice on Thursday. Woodrum (hamstring) was upgraded to a full participant on Thursday and head coach Dennis Erickson expects to have his QB1 back for the Stallions’ home opener. Matt Asiata (hamstring) was downgraded to a limited participant on Thursday.

Both teams also had some meaningful transactions throughout the week. Arizona released backup running back Larry Rose III as well as tight end Bryce Williams while Salt Lake placed wide receiver Dres Anderson on the injured reserve list and signed receiver Brian Tyms in a corresponding move.

Key matchup: Salt Lake CBs vs. Arizona WRs

It’s not a secret that Rashad Ross has been the engine of the Hotshots’ offense through two weeks. The former Redskins receiver and returner has emerged as arguably the league’s top receiver:

Up next is a Salt Lake defense that ranks first in average yards allowed per rush … but sixth in yards allowed per pass. Cornerback Will Davis has earned Pro Football Focus’ No. 12 grade among all cornerbacks this season, but Salt Lake doesn’t have another corner graded higher than 20th.