Giants vs. Bears Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds: Can You Trust Chicago’s Lifeless Offense?

Giants vs. Bears Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds: Can You Trust Chicago’s Lifeless Offense? article feature image

Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Daniel Jones.

  • Is there any betting value on this NFL Week 12 matchup between the New York Giants and Chicago Bears?
  • You'll find odds, analysis of the biggest mismatch and Sean Koerner's projected spread below.

Giants at Bears Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Bears -6
  • Over/Under: 40.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

Odds as of Thursday evening.

After another dreadful performance in Week 11, Mitchell Trubisky didn’t play late in the fourth quarter during the Bears’ Week 11 loss to the Rams and may not start Week 12. The Giants, meanwhile, have been one of the worst teams this season and face one of the game’s best defenses in Chicago.

Can you trust either team? Our experts analyze every angle of this matchup from a betting perspective, complete with a comparison to Sean Koerner’s projected odds.

Giants-Bears Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Bears

Trubisky (hip) exited last week’s game early, but has been practicing in full. Linebacker Danny Trevathan (elbow) has missed both practices and could be out this week. That’s good news for Daniel Jones since Trevathan has their third-best pass-rushing grade.

The Giants could be down both of their tight ends in Evan Engram (foot) and Rhett Ellison (concussion). Neither play has practiced, leaving Kaden Smith and Scott Simonson to mix in at tight end. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Bears LB Khalil Mack vs. Giants LTs Nate Solder/Eric Smith

The Giants are hoping Solder (concussion) is cleared in time to face the four-time Pro Bowler and three-time First-Team All-Pro Mack. But if Solder doesn’t, then it will likely be 2017 undrafted free agent Eric Smith.

Solder has already allowed eight sacks, and his 94.7% mark in Pro Football Focus’ pass blocking efficiency metric ranks 65th of 78 qualified tackles (min. 20% snaps). Smith, meanwhile, gave up two sacks against the Jets in Week 10 in his first career game, giving him an 89.7% PBE rating that would rank dead last if he qualified.

Jones has been dropped for four-plus sacks in five of his eight starts, and the Giants are, unsurprisingly 1-4 against the spread in those games. When he’s gotten sacked three times or less, they’re 2-1 against the spread.

Coming off the bye and going up against a reeling Bears offense, the Giants should be able to stick around in this game. But if they don’t, Mack will likely have had something to do with it. Chris Raybon

chargers-vs-bears-odds-picks-betting-predictions-week 8-2019
Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Khalil Mack

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Bears -6.5
  • Projected Total: 41.5

Whenever the books are willing to post a line despite a starting QB being a game-time decision, it’s usually because they view the drop-off between the starter and the backup to be negligible. That’s the case with the Bears, whether Trubisky or Chase Daniel get the start.

You could argue that Daniel would be an upgrade as going with a more conservative veteran QB at home in a matchup they should win. Trubisky is much more of a high-risk, high-reward raw QB who would be better served to use in a matchup they’re outmatched, assuming the added level of volatility can only help them if they’re fairly big underdogs. Sean Koerner

PRO System Match

A lot happened for Chicago in Week 11. The Bears lost to the Rams, the offense scored seven points and Mitch Trubisky was benched. The public has had enough with last year’s NFC North champions.

Oddsmakers opened the Bears are 6.5-point favorites but less than 30% of spread tickets are on Chicago. It is easy to understand why casual bettors would fade the Bears but now is a bad time to jump off the bandwagon.

Historically, it has been profitable to bet teams getting little public support after a bad offensive game. Following this Pro System, bettors have gone 150-95-4 (61.2%) ATS since 2003. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $4,606 following this strategy.

A reverse line movement bet signal has been triggered on the Bears, an indication that sharps are backing Chicago. John Ewing

PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.

Expert Picks

Koerner: Lean Over 40.5

This is likely a spread to pass on, but I’m showing some slight value on the over.

The market has hammered the under here with 77% of the action as of writing (see live public betting data here), pushing the total down from 41 to 40.5. Given the Giants are set to have all their passing weapons on the field for the first time this season and the Bears run defense slipping a bit after Akiem Hicks went down, it can only favor a game flow trending to the over.

Over 40.5 is only a lean here as it’s a bit tough to take a strong stand given we don’t know which QB the Bears plan on starting as of writing.

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