The Washington Commanders (4-11) host the Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) in a Week 17 NFL Christmas showdown on Thursday, December 25. Kickoff from Northwest Stadium in Landover, Md. is set for 1 p.m. ET. The game will be streamed on Netflix.
The Cowboys are 8.5-point favorites on the spread, with the over/under set at 50.5. Dallas is a -425 favorite on the moneyline to win outright, while Washington is a +350 home underdog in this NFC East clash.
Below, you can find our Cowboys vs Commanders picks for NFL Week 17 (Christmas), which include predictions for the game total and two anytime touchdown scorer props.
Cowboys vs Commanders Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
| 1 p.m. | |
| 1 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Cowboys vs Commanders Odds
- Cowboys vs Commanders Moneyline: Cowboys -425, Commanders +350
- Cowboys vs Commanders Spread: Cowboys -8.5, Commanders +8.5
- Cowboys vs Commanders Total: 50.5
NFL Week 17 odds via bet365
Cowboys vs Commanders Over/Under Prediction
Games involving the Cowboys this season have averaged 58.5 points. Their pass defense is last in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) and the Commanders defense just barely edges them out, ranking 31st.
You can expect an abundance of explosive plays in this game even with Josh Johnson at quarterback for Washington.
The Cowboys’ pass rush has a 4.9% adjusted sack rate (31st), which means Johnson should have time to scan the field against one of the weakest secondaries in the sport.
The Commanders and Cowboys defenses also struggle to tackle, grading below a 50.0 tackling grade, per Pro Football Focus.
Runningbacks Chris Rodriguez and Javonte Williams have both shown the ability to break tackles and gain extra yardage after contact, which I expect to be the case often in this game.
Dak Prescott played flawless football the last time he saw this Washington defense, completing 70% of his attempts and throwing three scores without an interception. Washington surrenders a league-high 12.3 yards per completion, so the Cowboys' passing attack should have success once again.
Surprisingly, this total still sits below the key number of 51. I will gladly play the over up to that number.
Pick: Over 50.5 (-110); bet to Over 51
Cowboys vs Commanders Anytime Touchdown Scorer
By Sean Koerner
I was on George Pickens to score a touchdown last week, and I'm going right back to the well on Christmas.
Pickens is coming off a huge 7/130/1 game in a losing effort against the Chargers. While the Cowboys are eliminated from playoff contention, Pickens still has plenty to play for. He's on the final year of his rookie contract and is set to hit unrestricted free agency in the offseason so he'll be looking to continue to pad his stats in what's already been a career year.
Fellow receivers Ryan Flournay (DNP on Tuesday) and KaVontae Turpin (limited practice on Tuesday) are both banged up — if either player is sidelined, it's another boost for Pickens.
Pick: George Pickens Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+135)
Cowboys vs Commanders Anytime Touchdown Scorer
By Sean Koerner
We're not too far removed from Treylon Burks being a first-round pick of the Titans a few years ago. Tennessee had to move on from him due to all the injuries, but there's still some talent here.
Burks has stepped up for the Commanders, who have already lost Noah Brown (ribs) and Jaylin Lane ankle). I think Burks is going to be out there a ton in this game — don't forget he made a highlight reel touchdown catch a few weeks ago against the Broncos.
Burks is a sneaky bet to score in this game. The quarterback situation isn't great with Josh Johnson stepping in for Marcus Mariota — this is more of a bet on Burks' talent.
Pick: Treylon Burks Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+440)
