The Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) and Washington Commanders (4-11) meet in a Week 17 NFL Christmas game on Thursday, Dec. 25. Kickoff is set for in 1:00 p.m. ET from Northwest Stadium in Landover, Md. The game will broadcast live on Netflix.
The Cowboys are 8.5-point favorites on the spread over the Commanders (Cowboys -8.5), the game total is set at 50.5 points. The Cowboys are -425 favorites on the moneyline, while the Commanders are +350 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my NFL Christmas preview and Cowboys vs Commanders predictions for today's NFC East clash.
Cowboys vs Commanders Prediction
- Cowboys vs Commanders picks: Jake Ferguson Anytime TD; Cowboys Alt Spreads; Josh Johnson props
My Cowboys vs Commanders best bets are Cowboys alt spreads, a Jake Ferguson anytime touchdown and Josh Johnson props. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Cowboys vs Commanders Odds
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +350 |
Cowboys vs Commanders NFL Christmas Preview
Let's start here: there's absolutely no reason to bet a traditional side or total in this game.
This is an utterly meaningless game for both teams — both playing on short rest — in Week 17. Washington is starting 39-year-old veteran Josh Johnson, who's made single-digit NFL starts in his career and has more teams, contracts, interceptions, and years of service than touchdown passes.
But this is a rivalry game!
Oh, is it? Dallas has won four of the last five, seven of nine, and 14 of 19. Moreover, these games typically haven't even been close — only one of the last 14 games has been closer than seven points, with an average margin of victory of 19.8 PPG!
Still, it's Christmas and it's the first game on the slate and we need a reason to be interested, so let's meander through some soft analysis and hit a few alternate lines and long shot angles.
The Cowboys offense is obviously the top unit in this game, by a wide margin. Javonte Williams has run well most of the year, and Dak Prescott and his pair of elite WRs — CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens — have lit up defenses all season and should not find much difficulty against a Washington defense that ranks bottom five in DVOA against both run and pass on the season.
Dallas ranks top 10 by EPA per play both rushing and passing, and the Cowboys are top 10 in Success Rate as well, while Washington ranks bottom 10 in that metric. The Cowboys are big favorites for a reason — they should move the ball and score with ease.
Cowboys vs Commanders Prediction, Betting Analysis
If you're looking for an Anytime Touchdown bet to start your holiday, Jake Ferguson looks like a great angle.
Washington ranks dead last against tight ends by DVOA and has allowed 10 touchdowns to the position already. That's second most in the league and includes seven in the last nine games alone. It also includes two scores to Ferguson in the previous meeting this season, when he caught all seven of his targets for 29 yards.
Ferguson didn't rack up much yardage but made his catches count. In a game expecting a ton of scoring, he's a good TD bet at +150 (Fanatics).
The most likely outcome here is a comfortable Cowboys win, but the line has ballooned well past the point of investment at Dallas -8.5, and could push to -9.5 by kickoff for teaser protection.
Rather than playing the traditional spread, an alt Dallas line is a sharp play.
Remember, only one of the last 14 meetings in this rivalry finished closer than seven points, with an average margin of victory of almost 20 PPG. Over half of those matchups (8-of-14; 57%) saw a win by 20+ points, and Dallas has won three of its six games this season by 15+ points and has scored 31+ points in all but one of its victories.
The Cowboys beat Washington earlier this season by 22, doubling the Commanders up, 44-22.
Rather than paying for a bloated -8.5, split your side bet between Cowboys -14.5 at +186 (bet365) and -19.5 at +340 (FanDuel).
We know Dallas will score on Washington. The real question is whether the Commanders can return the favor.
Only three defenses in the NFL rank worse than Washington by DVOA — Dallas is one of them. In fact, the Cowboys are dead last after their showing last week.
Think about what that means — behind the Bengals, behind Washington, behind both New York squads. These are the two worst defenses in the league by EPA per dropback.
Could we get a Christmas shootout?
That will depend on Johnson.
The total for this game is down four points from Week 7 when Jayden Daniels started the game healthy. Johnson is the third-string QB and has only nine starts in his career, just one since 2018.
Washington has been a far better offense at home this season, better than league average by DVOA, versus bottom five on the road, and the offense has been much better early in games. That could just mean a first-half over, which has hit in all but one Dallas games this season.
The Commanders are fringe top 10 in Success Rate offensively, while Dallas is near the bottom in defense, so don't be surprised if the Commanders find ways to move the ball, as they did in the first meeting.
Still, this is Josh Johnson — owner of a whopping one NFL win as a starter in his career.
The smart play is probably just hitting Johnson unders — under on passing yards, under on rushing yards, under on TDs. These lines have to "respect" how bad the Cowboys defense is, so they're all too high as median outcomes, and Johnson is always a threat to get injured at his age or he could just benched at some point.
But what fun is that?
The Cowboys defense has turned opposing QBs into superstars all season.
Russell Wilson threw for a career-high 450 yards and three scores at age 37; he was benched one week later. Caleb Williams threw four TDs and came two yards shy of 300. Justin Fields passed for 283 yards. Bo Nix threw four TDs. Even J.J. McCarthy scored three times.
Dallas has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season by a wide margin. The Cowboys have allowed the most passing yards, the most passing TDs, the most rushing TDs and the third-most rushing yards.
Johnson doesn't have many NFL sills, but his running ability is one of them. He's rushed for 40+ yards in five of his nine (56%) starts, and though none of that has come since 2018, he's only started once since then.
Maybe this 39-year-old can't run anymore! Let's find out.
Again, skip the median outcome and try some alt lines: 25+ yards at +194 (FanDuel) and 40+ at +700 (Caesars). Dallas has allowed 23+ rushing yards to QBs in 60% of its games and 30+ in 40%.
The Cowboys have also allowed eight rushing TDs to QBs, including five in the last seven games. Johnson has only one career rushing TD, but he's worth a TD sprinkle at +640 (Fanatics).
Or maybe Johnson will just stand in the pocket and chuck it to Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel all game.
Johnson has played 80% of the snaps only twice since 2018; in both games, he threw 40+ passes and broke 300+ passing yards, his only two such games of his career.
Dallas has allowed 283+ passing yards in nearly half its games (7-of-15), including three of the last five. Five QBs have thrown 39+ times against Dallas — none of them in wins.
Johnson is +1200 to chuck it 40+ times (bet365). Let's sprinkle that one, along with 275+ passing yards at +875 (bet365) and 300+ yards at +1600 (DraftKings).
Hey, if we're going to watch this goofy game, we may as well root for some ridiculous outcomes and have fun with it!
Merry Christmas!
Picks:
- Jake Ferguson Anytime Touchdown (+150; Fanatics)
- Cowboys -14.5 alt spread (+186; bet365); -19.5 (+340; FanDuel)
- Josh Johnson 25+ Rushing Yards (+194; FanDuel); 40+ (+700; Caesars)
- Josh Johnson Anytime Touchdown (+640; Fanatics)
- Josh Johnson 40+ Pass Attempts (+1200; bet365)
- Josh Johnson 275+ Passing Yards (+875; bet365); 300+ (+1600; DraftKings)
Spread
As I mentioned above, there's no reason to make a traditional spread bet in this game. Pass
Moneyline
I have no play for either side of the moneyline.
Over/Under
Like the spread, I have no bet for the game total.
