Vikings vs. Seahawks Betting Picks, Predictions & Odds: How to Bet this Pivotal MNF Matchup

Vikings at Seahawks Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

• Odds: Seahawks -3
• Over/Under: 50
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ESPN

Odds as of Sunday.

Russell Wilson and the Seahawks welcome the Vikings to Seattle on Monday night in a showdown between two top NFC teams. Will Mike Zimmer's fearsome Minnesota defense be able to limit Wilson and the Seahawks' inconsistent run game?

Our experts think the Vikings' defensive line may handle a weak Seattle offensive line, but warn that Minnesota's injury troubles may limit their effectiveness.

Vikings-Seahawks Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Seahawks

Most of the Seattle injuries are on the defensive side of the ball. Defensive lineman Al Woods (ankle) didn’t practice until he got in a limited session on Saturday. His potential absence would be good news for Dalvin Cook since he’s one of the Seahawks’ best run defenders on the interior. Jadeveon Clowney (knee/hip) is listed as questionable again, but he did manage limited practices on Friday and Saturday. He leads the team in quarterback pressures, hits and hurries.

The Vikings listed key defenders Linval Joseph (knee), Harrison Smith (hamstring), Anthony Harris (groin) and Shamar Stephen (knee) as questionable. All of them except Harris practiced in full on Saturday, so I’d expect most of them to be active on Monday night. The other key injury is obviously Adam Thielen (hamstring), who was ruled out on Sunday. — Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Friday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Vikings Defensive Line vs. Seahawks Offensive Line

Even if two-time Pro Bowl DT Linval Joseph (knee, questionable) doesn’t return from his two-game absence, the Seattle O-line would still be severely outmatched. The weakest link starts right in the middle with center Joey Hunt, who has been filling in for starter Justin Britt, who was lost for the season to a knee injury. According to Pro Football Focus, Hunt’s 95.5% pass blocking efficiency rate ranks 157th of 188 offensive lineman in who have played at least 20% of their team’s snaps, and only one center has posted a lower mark.

The biggest mismatch will come on the right side with tackle German Ifedi squaring off against Danielle Hunter. A 2018 Pro Bowler, Hunter is tied for ninth in tackles for loss (10), 10th in sacks (8.5), and 13th in quarterback hits (16). Ifedi, meanwhile, is PFF’s 62nd-ranked tackle among 73 qualified tackles in PFF’s grades and has allowed a position-high 41 quarterback pressures.

Much has been made about how Seattle’s backfield rotation will shake out after Chris Carson’s fumbling issues resurfaced last week and Rashaad Penny received 14 carries to Carson’s eight. Regardless of which runner Russell Wilson is handing off to, the Seahawks run game isn’t likely to get much going against a Vikings defense ranked fourth in rushing DVOA (a schedule-adjusted efficiency metric from Football Outsiders). With Britt on the shelf, the Seahawks will start exactly zero offensive lineman who rank better than 30th at their position in run blocking.

The Seahawks are lucky to have Russell Wilson, who is capable of picking up the slack on the ground and beating pressure in the pass game. Still, the Seahawks are just 5-11-1 against the spread as home favorites since the start of 2017, according to our Bet Labs data, and inferior O-line play is a big reason why. — Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner's Projected Odds

• Projected Spread: Seahawks -3
• Projected Total: 49.5

Expert Pick

Chad Millman: Vikings +3

This is the list of teams that, heading into this weekend, have allowed 263 points or more this year and have a winning record: The Seattle Seahawks. Before Sunday began the Raiders would have been on that list; they were 6-5 heading into the weekend and had allowed 284 points. But now, well …

What's my point? This Seattle team isn't so much a team as it is a player. Russell Wilson is a legitimate MVP candidate who finds absurd, uncanny ways to win his team games they have no business winning. His heroics are usually combined with some kind of circumstances the Seahawks opponent inflicts on themselves to make Wilson's job a bit easier. Their nine wins include just three against teams with winning records, games they won by a combined six points.

Meanwhile, the Vikings have a winning record. And are coming off of a bye. And have a quarterback who is executing the play-action with the skill of Houdini. And with a defense that is immune to trickery. Coming into this weekend Minnesota had allowed the second fewest points in the conference (205; the Niners were No. 1) and it had scored as many points as the Packers (289).

I've written about Pythagorean wins before. The concept is that teams that allow more points than they score and still have a winning record are over-valued. While the Seahawks are not technically a Pythag play, they are a team that leans that way. And they are playing an opponent that has proven these past several weeks to be on par with the league's best. Only three teams–the Patriots, Ravens and Niners–have bigger points scored and points allowed differentials.

Even on the road, against a team that has late-game magic, I want the better team getting the points.

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