Just two weeks into the new NFL season, there already 10 0-2 teams staring deep into the abyss of a lost season.
Since the NFL expanded to seven playoff teams from each conference in 2020, only 5-of-41 teams (12.2%) that started the season 0-2 went on to make the postseason.
Last year, the Ravens, Broncos and Rams climbed out of 0-2 holes. The previous season we saw the Bengals and Texans do it, as predicted at +2500 right here in the 2023 version of this NFL Week 3 column.
Going back to 1990, 35-of-288 teams (12.2%) started 0-2 but still made the playoffs, so the numbers before and after the playoff expansion are pretty similar now — about 1-in-8 teams, around one per season.
But wait — it gets worse.
Only three teams have dug themselves out of an 0-2 start and gone on to win the Super Bowl: the 1993 Cowboys, 2001 Patriots and 2007 Giants.
Even worse, the 2018 Texans are the only team since the 2002 expansion to make the postseason after starting 0-3, with only five other teams in NFL history matching that feat (1.5%), and just one 0-4 team (1992 Chargers) rebounded to make the playoffs.
In other words: It's now or never for these 0-2 teams.
With 10 0-2 squads this season, history's numbers say we likely get one potential comeback pick to make the postseason. But which team will it be?
Let's go through all 10 teams, consider what we've learned so far and the schedule still to come and try to imagine a playoff scenario. I ranked them from least to most likely and make a bet for each along the way.
Tier IV — Start Spreadin' the News
10. New York Giants
The Giants played in the best game of NFL Week 2, a wild back-and-forth, 40-37 overtime los to the Cowboys — sadly, that will likely be the apex of New York's season.
The game saw two field goals, five touchdowns, and five lead changes in the fourth quarter alone and almost 1,000 yards of offense, including 7.8 yards per play by the Giants and a career-high 450 passing yards for Russell Wilson.
So how in the world did the G-Men lose?
The Giants couldn't run the ball, couldn't stop a nose bleed, and played sloppy, undisciplined ball.
New York ran 21 times for -0.20 EPA per play; Tyrone Tracy Jr. may have already lost his job to rookie Cam Skattebo. A Giants defense that was supposed to be a sneaky top-10 candidate got lit up — and New York made mistake after mistake.
The game featured 26 penalties for 266 yards — and those were just the accepted penalties! That didn't include five declined penalties, nor the pass interference, roughing the passer, and too many men on the field flags New York managed to get all on one play, somehow offset by a Cowboys taunting penalty.
On one single drive, Giants T James Hudson accrued four penalties all on his own for 40 yards. The Giants got 110 yards of offense on the drive … and settled for a 37-yard field goal.
And that's the story of this team. They can't block with Andrew Thomas out, they're poorly coached and they couldn't close — they are now 0-2 against the two other beatable teams in the NFC East.
Combine that with the Chiefs and Chargers up next — plus a goofy QB platoon with rookie Jaxson Dart — and this just looks like one long (or short?) Brian Daboll funeral.
Verdict: It's over for the Giants. But at least they won't be the only team crying in New York.
9. New York Jets
- Playoff odds: +700 (bet365)
- Division odds: +8000 (BetMGM)
The Jets were one of the fun surprises in Week 1 — we'll always have that.
Like their New York counterpart, the Jets gave us one of the surprise best games of the early season in Week 1 — and like the Giants, they failed to finish the job against the Steelers and now the season is probably over.
What was a surprising Tanner Engstrand offense in Week 1 — running early and often and staying ahead of the chains — quickly became predictable and easily stoppable in Week 2. The Jets never had a shot against the Bills; if N.Y. got stopped on first down, the drive was basically over.
Now Justin Fields is hurt, which probably means Tyrod Taylor starting games at some point. Not great.
There was some hope that this defense could bounce back, but it hasn't been great so far, and the offensive ceiling is awfully limited with the run-heaviest plan in the league.
The Jets look like a team that can surprise the wrong run defense, but not much more.
One team that's not lacking in run defense? Vita Vea and the Bucs, the next team on the schedule.
Remember, you almost definitely need to win in Week 3 to save an 0-2 season, so that alone could be a death knell. If New York can survive somehow, maybe the Jets hang around with the Dolphins and Cowboys up next.
Verdict: Just not enough ceiling with no QB and so much running. The Jets might be unique and occasionally fun, but that's it.
Tier III — Probably Better Than You Think
8. New Orleans Saints
- Playoff odds: +1600 (bet365)
- Division odds: +3000 (DraftKings)
The Saints have been shockingly competitive through two games, and that's against potential playoff opponents (Cardinals, 49ers).
Spencer Rattler hasn't exactly been good, but he hasn't been so bad that this team needed to burn a second-round pick on Tyler Shough either — that's a column for another day.
New Orleans has had a chance to win in the final minutes of both games, and the new coaching staff has this team competing hard. The defense is pretty old but holding up, and Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave are making plays on offense.
That's a good reminder, though, that this is probably the best the Saints will be all season.
Kamara and Olave are always at risk to get hurt at some point, leaving little behind them. Same with those aging defenders, and the offensive line is already getting nicked up. And Shough has to play at some point.
Aaron Schatz and FTN have been weirdly high on the Saints for several years running now. They've got them at 6.3 wins, showing clear value on over 4.5 wins (-115, bet365), and they'd have some value on a +3300 division ticket with New Orleans over 11% to make the playoffs (Caesars).
That's pretty optimistic, even with the surprising start. I can't invest in the Saints right now either way with road trips to Seattle and Buffalo up next, likely staring down the barrel of an 0-4 start.
Verdict: The NFC South isn't as attainable with the Bucs undefeated, but the Saints' season win total over may be worth sniffing around in a couple weeks if they are 0-4.
7. Cleveland Browns
- Playoff odds: +1400 (bet365)
- Division odds: +12500 (BetMGM)
This feels a bit odd to say after losing 41-17 to the Ravens, but the Browns look … kind of not terrible?
Cleveland trailed 10-3 at halftime and held Baltimore to only 242 yards. The Browns actually outgained a Ravens squad that looked like it could score on any play it wanted against Buffalo one week earlier — by 80 yards!! — and held Baltimore to 3-of-12 on third downs.
The Browns defense is actually looking pretty good!
Don't forget what Cleveland did to the full-strength Bengals in Week 1, holding Cincinnati to just 141 yards and 11 first downs — under three yards a play — for an offense most had ranked top five entering the season.
Rookies Mason Graham and Carson Schwesinger are already paying dividends, and this looks like a defense with top-10 potential under Jim Schwartz. That's probably not enough given the offensive woes, but what if the defense is top three like it was two years ago?
It's still tough to believe with this offense, even in a division that looks more open after the Joe Burrow injury. Cleveland got unlucky getting maybe the only healthy Burrow game of the season, and the Browns still have to face the Packers, Lions, Vikings and Steelers. Anything better than 2-4 would be a shock, and even that would be pretty surprising.
FTN projects the Browns at 5.5 wins, making over 4.5 look playable at -105 (bet365), but it's tough to invest right now with that daunting upcoming schedule.
Verdict: The Browns are better than you think, but they look more like a week-to-week cover play than a playoff bet.
Tier II — The Schedule Gives Them a Shot
6. Carolina Panthers
- Playoff odds: +900 (bet365)
- Division odds: +1800 (BetMGM)
For seven quarters of the NFL season, Carolina looked lifeless and lost — the worst team in the NFL.
Then the Panthers made a push and almost pulled off a shocker against the Cardinals. Carolina fell short after two touchdowns and a successful onside kick, and that was that.
The defense ranked dead last by DVOA last season and still looks rough after not adding much talent over the offseason, and it's probably not going to look great a couple months from now to have been dominated so thoroughly by the Jaguars and Cardinals.
Bryce Young looks like bad Bryce again, and that's probably not going to get much better now that the strength of the offense — the offensive line — is struggling with injuries to G Robert Hunt and C Austin Corbett.
Carolina's best hope is playing in the NFC South with a very winnable schedule. Up next are the Falcons, Patriots, Dolphins, Cowboys and Jets. Those are winnable games for a vaguely competent NFL team.
Too bad the Panthers look more like the worst team in the league instead.
Verdict: It's probably time to admit defeat on Bryce Young — and that might mean tanking for a replacement.
5. Miami Dolphins
- Playoff odds: +750 (bet365)
- Division odds: +5000 (DraftKings)
I'm not sure how the Dolphins made the top half of this list either.
It's funeral vibes in Miami for Mike McDaniel and this team after an awful offseason carried right over into an absolute stinkbomb of an opener against the Colts.
The Dolphins had their chances against the Patriots but lost. That 0-2 start against two mediocre AFC opponents — both of whom Miami would likely need to fight for a final wild-card spot — probably make this the worst 0-2 start on the list.
Miami did look a bit more like itself offensively on Sunday. Tyreek Hill had his first 30-yard play in over a calendar year, and the Dolphins got vertical and horizontal with their speed.
But Tua Tagovailoa has not been good — with eight sacks and three bad interceptions already — and he's not getting any help from a terrible offensive line that's down a couple guys.
Worst of all: the defense looks as bad as any in the league. They didn't make an actual stop until the second half of their second game — against the Colts and Patriots! — allowing scores on their first 10 drives faced.
Consider that Miami has the second-highest blitz rate in the NFL at 44%, but the second-worst pressure on blitzes at 21%, with just one sack on 28 blitzes.
That's not a good combination, and it's because this cornerback room can't cover anyone, forcing the defense to overcompensate with blitzes that aren't getting home. That's how you get picked apart by Daniel Jones and Drake Maye.
So why again are the Dolphins this high up the list — especially as two-touchdown underdogs against the Bills on Thursday night?
Because the offense showed some signs of life, and because if the Dolphins somehow escape Buffalo with a win, the next month of games against the Jets, Panthers and Browns suddenly looks very winnable.
It feels crazy right now, but the NFL stands for Not For Long.
Verdict: The Dolphins might be worth a tiny nibble at +5000 to win the AFC East (DraftKings), just in case they somehow pull the upset on Thursday are are suddenly one game back with a dangerous offense and a super winnable upcoming schedule.
4. Chicago Bears
- Playoff odds: +600 (bet365)
- Division odds: +3500 (DraftKings)
What a mess.
For three quarters of the Monday night opener against the Vikings, the Bears were rocking.
Caleb Williams led the offense to a brilliant opening-drive touchdown, the Bears continued to move the ball, and the stadium was in a frenzy after a pick-6 to go up 17-6 into the final stanza.
The Bears have allowed 73 points in the five quarters since then. Egads.
A once promising season already looks completely off the rails. There's plenty to blame, but the defensive injuries are a good place to start.
Star CB Jaylon Johnson wasn't healthy coming into the season and is now out for the year; CB Kyler Gordon and LB T.J. Edwards are both hurt, too. There are other problems with this defense — among them DC Dennis Allen — but there's enough blame to go around.
The offense doesn't even have health to blame.
The revamped offensive line hasn't been good enough, and the run game Ben Johnson dominated with in Detroit apparently did not make the trip to Chicago. The Bears can't run at all, and the offense really hasn't had much success at all outside of opening-script scores.
Williams has improved since his rookie campaign but still routinely sails throws — he struggles mightily with accuracy.
Don't forget, Chicago came into the season with one of the toughest schedules in the league — and that was supposed to be a softer start.
Losing that game to Minnesota looks unforgivable after the Vikings' loss to the Falcons on Sunday Night Football. The Vikings and Lions were both banged up with a lot of new moving parts — the Bears didn't take advantage.
The Bears are the only team in the NFC North to play the Bengals late in the season when Joe Burrow might be back. The 49ers come late too, when Brock Purdy should be healthy. The schedule is about when you play, not just who you play.
That said, the upcoming schedule looks doable: Dallas and Las Vegas, then a badly-needed bye week before Washington and New Orleans.
There's a world where the Bears eke out two wins, get right in the bye week, and emerge from that stretch 4-2.
I can't join you in that world. The price isn't worth investing in, and there's just too much bad about this team right now.
Verdict: Bears Island is officially closed for business after a regrettable two-week experience.
3. Tennessee Titans
- Playoff odds: +900 (bet365)
- Division odds: +1800 (BetMGM)
Well that's certainly one way to throw your first career NFL touchdown.
In many ways, that single play captures the Titans in a nutshell.
Cam Ward is absolutely dazzling, creating with his feet, scrambling to keep the play alive, throwing a wild strike across his body to the opposite corner of the field and hitting rising rookie WR Elic Ayomanor for the touchdown just before halftime to keep the Titans in it.
That all sounds great until you remember why Ward is scrambling: his offensive line consistently breaks down and he doesn’t have any reliable weapons. It's great to see these occasional dazzling flashes from Ward and it's cool to see Ayomanor — a Day 3 rookie WR — already look like a go-to target, but that also shows how far this Titans team still has to go.
The Titans are improving, certainly, but they still have a long way to go. The special teams are already miles better than last year's disaster. The defense has hung tough, and the Titans have hung around and played competitive football for three quarters against two playoff contenders.
Those are not terrible losses, but you don't get three-fourths of a win in the NFL for hanging around. Head coach Brian Callahan and this staff still leave much to be desired, and the Titans need to play four quarters and get some wins for any of this to matter.
The good and bad news is that it's going to have to start immediately this week, with a home game against the Colts. That's a great opportunity to pull within a game of the division leader — and a two-game win streak would be pretty sweet with the Texans up next.
Then it's Arizona, Vegas, New England and then Indianapolis again. These are winnable games … but you gotta actually win at some point.
Verdict: The AFC South remains the most wide open division. If you don't believe in the Colts, this is a great spot to buy low on the Titans in place of a Week 3 moneyline bet at +2000 in the division (BetRivers).
Tier I — So You're telling Me There's a Chance …
2. Houston Texans
- Playoff odds: +135 (bet365)
- Division odds: +250 (BetMGM)
The Texans joined the ignominious group of 0-2 teams after blowing a lead with seconds on the clock on Monday Night Football against the Bucs.
It's the second straight week the Texans struggled to find offense all game and then found just enough late, only to blow it.
Nick Caley's offense remains wholly uninspiring. The Texans can't get the ball to Nico Collins and can't find him any help, and there is no semblance of a run game. The offensive line has been poor as expected and Caley hasn't done much to make things easy on his new unit.
There are occasional signs of life. Stroud can still make the throws, though his process is too frequently hurried, and the line played every snap together against Tampa and showed some signal that it can at least move from tragic to just bad.
Rookies Woody Marks, Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins showed some spark. The Texans may need to start trusting their young guys instead of giving extended reps to veteran retreads like Dare Ogunbowale, Xavier Hutchinson and Justin Watson.
That's the bad news.
The good news is that everything else has been every bit as good as planned. Houston's defense has been brilliant, looking as good as any in the league, and its special teams darn near won the game all on its own 0n Monday night.
When you have a top-three defense and special teams, even just a subpar offense will do. This team still has hope, but it has to find answers right now.
Up next for the Texans are the Jaguars and Titans. Those have to be wins, and if they are, Houston might well be right back atop the division by the time we get to October.
Those wins have to come now, because after that is a Ravens game before the bye week, and then a rough stretch against the Seahawks, 49ers and Broncos. Houston still has late road trips to Buffalo and Kansas City, too.
This remains a great opportunity to buy low on a championship defense and spine. If Caley can find some answers offensively and Stroud can get going, this could easily be a top-five team in the AFC.
But with the daunting schedule, it's pretty clear that the best path is the division — beating up on the Colts, Jaguars and Titans to accrue wins and take the easiest path to the playoffs: the AFC South.
Verdict: Buy the dip on the Texans. Trust the defense to get it done with the Jaguars and Titans next and invest in Houston as a +270 division winner — it's a a far better price than +130 to make the playoffs when the division is the best path.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
- Playoff odds: -185 (bet365)
- Division odds: +250 (BetMGM)
And then there are the 0-2 Chiefs. What a sentence.
Remember, Patrick Mahomes and friends only lost one regular-season game last season, until the starters rested in Week 18. They've already doubled that total in 2025; Mahomes is on his first ever three-game losing streak.
Both games were winnable. After going 10-0 in one-score games a year ago, the Chiefs are 0-2 this time around.
Kansas City didn't get embarrassed by the Eagles. The Chiefs missed a field goal and got an unlucky tipped interception in the end zone that swung the game. The Chiefs weren't great in either game — the right team won both — but still had a chance to win both.
The problems are myriad and clear.
The defense is looking old. Chris Jones has lost a half step. The secondary got shredded in Week 1. Kansas City played better against Philly, but this doesn't look like a unit that can carry the team while the offense figures things out.
And boy does the offense need figuring out.
Every run play feels like a surrender. Travis Kelce looks ancient. There are no receivers to speak of until Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice return. The offensive line is still struggling. The playcall remains baffling.
And it might finally be time to admit Mahomes just hasn't been quite right.
Tyquan Thornton was all alone on the screen Sunday afternoon and Mahomes missed him by 10 yards, before connecting for a deep one a few minutes later. The Mahomes magic just hasn't quite been the same the last couple regular seasons.
So far, that's being masked by Mahomes making magic with his feet as a scrambler — but that feels worrisome and tenuous at best.
How many times can Mahomes play Superman and save this team with his feet before one big hit leaves him gimpy or on the sidelines? This team is beyond screwed if that happens.
Still, until that happens, the presence of Mahomes and Andy Reid's coaching staff give this team an incredibly high floor.
Here's an offense that hasn't felt like it has played well at any point the last two seasons and still has four losses total in that stretch — three against the Eagles and Bills, and all but the Super Bowl winnable in the final minutes.
It's more than reasonable to be concerned about the Chiefs making or winning a Super Bowl or Mahomes' MVP stock.
There's zero reason to invest in Chiefs futures right now. They're too public a team to get enough of a discount to buy in, and there are plenty of worrying signs about Kansas City's biggest goals.
The schedule is tough. The Giants shouldn't be a struggle on Sunday Night Football, but then the Ravens await next. The division offers no more easy games with the AFC West improved. Only three teams ever have gone from 0-2 to a Super Bowl victory.
But Worthy and Rice will be back soon enough, and Mahomes will keep finding a way to give this team a chance. And the AFC looks wide open, especially with Joe Burrow hurt. Maybe the Chiefs aren't headed for the 1-seed, but even 9-8 could snag an AFC wild-card slot.
This team is not investable though.
The Chiefs are so public that they're priced at -190 to make the playoffs. There's zero value at that number, and actually implied value at +155 to miss, but do you really want that ticket when Mahomes has yet to miss an AFC Championship Game in his career?
It's hard to get too excited about +270 for the division either. FTN has Kansas City as the second-most likely to win the AFC West, but that's still just 23% likely, and only 56% to make the playoffs.
The Chiefs should get on the board with a win in New York, and then Kansas City has only one more road game before November, and that's in Jacksonville. If the Chiefs can get to 4-4 by then, with the receivers finally back on the field, they should be fine.
Verdict: Now is not the time to buy Chiefs futures, but don't short Kansas City's stock either. As long as Mahomes is out there, this team's floor is high enough to stay in the mix all year — but we'll have to look for other ways to invest.
