I think there’s a realistic chance we see Jaxson Dart replace Wilson in-game as soon as this week. What’s “realistic”? Maybe 5%. Doesn’t sound too crazy, right? Even that slim chance gives sneaky value on the under, but I see other paths that help too. If Wilson plays well and the Giants keep things close, they can run a more balanced, run-heavy approach than Week 1, when they trailed for 52 minutes (4th highest rate) in their 21-6 loss to Washington. Yes, they’re six-point underdogs, but that actually projects them to play with the lead 18% more often than their 2024 average. In that type of game script, Russ would naturally come in under. The deeper issue is his profile in this offense. He attempted a 20+ yard pass on just 3% of throws in Week 1.. by far the lowest rate of his career, over 10% below his career average. That led to 5.7 air yards per attempt, also the lowest of his career. He’s throwing underneath at a career-high rate in Daboll’s scheme and scrambled on six dropbacks, another late-career high. The line itself looks inflated. Wilson’s best-case path to piling up yards would be a big negative game script that forces New York to go ultra pass-heavy. But that’s also when Daboll might decide to give Dart his first look, especially in a lower-stakes spot like Dallas without Micah Parsons. I project Russ closer to 207.5 yards, and with enough sneaky downside baked in, I give him about a 60% chance to stay under 217.5.

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