NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Player Props: Sunday Week 1 Picks

My initial instincts for this game were to take Panthers QB Bryce Young and Jaguars TE Brenton Strange.

After looking at our Action Pro Anytime TD projections from Sean Koerner, it was good to confirm I was on the right track, as both are listed with the highest edge in this matchup.

Part of the reason why I want Young is the lack of skill-position players to lean on in the red zone. My love affair with TE Tommy Tremble was a fun point in my life, but that was when we could bet him at +1200 to score back in 2023. That edge is all but gone with him at +450.

Young, on the other hand, was one of the better values for ATDs last season; he finished as the most profitable QB in 2024 with four rushing TDs over his final four games.

If the Jags defense continues to struggle stopping the run while playing man coverage at a top-two rate, I like Young to use his legs in the red zone and love it at +600.

With the departure of TE Evan Engram to the Broncos, Strange steps right in as the TE1 in this offense. He was second on the team in receiving yards last year despite a minimal role and caught both of his TDs when Engram missed time to start the season.

The Panthers allowed the most TDs to TE last season (11) while ranking 31st in defensive DVOA against the position.

Under Dan Quinn, the Commanders' defense tends to play a lot of man coverage. After acquiring CB Marshon Lattimore from the Saints, they leaned into it even more.

This plays into Giants WR Malik Nabers' hands as he crushed man coverage last season with a 2.24 yards-per-route-run along with a 36% target share.

Nabers should be in line to score, similar to WR George Pickens when he caught all three of his TDs in games Wilson started.

The only other option I would consider is TE Theo Johnson, who’s been getting rave reviews in training camp but is dealing with an injury prior to Week 1. If he’s playing and still above +400 before kickoff, go ahead and grab it.

It’s a bit tougher to conclude which way to go with the Commanders because I think the Giants' defense could be feisty to start the season. New York’s front seven has pass-rush ability and was 11th in defensive DVOA vs. the run, but the pass defense was atrocious and ranked last in defensive DVOA to WR1s.

That’s why WR Terry McLaurin is the most favored to score in this game at +125. The value on Scary Terry isn’t great. Especially given that WR Deebo Samuel (+200) is on the team and he’ll demand touches/looks in the red zone.

QB Jayden Daniels is really the only option if you’re taking a Commander, but just know that at +170, you’re not getting the most value.

The only reason why I’d suggest Daniels is that we know he’ll scramble. He led the NFL in scramble rate per game, and we saw him call his own number in the preseason for a touchdown.

If Daniels doesn’t do it for you, then pass on Washington TD scorers.

When picking TD scorers for every game, you start to become attached to certain picks because of the data and conviction. The one player who checks both of those boxes entering Week 1 is Browns tight end David Njoku.

In two games last year vs. the Bengals, he had 24 targets and a touchdown — and that was with Deshaun Watson and Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback. Now, Njoku is getting 2023 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Joe Flacco back, which means the Browns' passing game has some life.

In six games with Flacco as the Browns' starter, Njoku went full beast mode with four touchdowns and saw his target rate per route run nearly double with Flacco chucking the ball. Does this mean it will be a seamless transition?

No, because Flacco’s turnover-worthy-play rate is off the charts, but we at least know in his brief time as a Brown and a Colt, he will chuck it downfield and give receivers a chance. Sometimes that’s all we can ask for.

Finally, the Bengals were bottom five in targets, catches, yards and touchdowns to the tight end position last year and did very little to improve their defense.

The Bengals' side is a bit more difficult to find value because while QB Joe Burrow will definitely throw downfield and push the ball, the fact remains that he typically targets his top WRs — Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins — in the red zone.

Both have steamed TD odds at this stage, which means we shouldn’t bet on them.

I think if you like someone like WR3 Andrei Iosivas at +350 or better, I can get behind it, but if he doesn’t get targeted in the red zone, you have to accept it and move on.

For Patriots TD scorers, it likely comes down to TE Hunter Henry or QB Drake Maye.

The case for Henry is that he’s a big target in the end zone. Maye looked for him often as Henry led the team in targets and red-zone targets. In fact, Henry has led the Patriots in red-zone targets in each of the last four seasons.

However, given it’s a Pete Carroll-coached defense, if we used data from his time in Seattle, the Raiders will likely lean on a zone defense with an emphasis on Cover 3.

Henry struggled facing that style of defense and saw his target share and the majority of receiving metrics plummet in that spot. If he scores, that’s amazing, but we would need more value than +250 to justify the bet.

That means we’re gonna go with Maye. He might not have the most weapons at the moment, but I love his nose for the end zone.

He was fourth in total QB scrambles last year (45) despite missing four games, and we’ve seen an athletic quarterback like Ryan Tannehill call his own number a lot inside the 5-yard line under Mike Vrabel. Until we see more Patriots players separate themselves from the pack, Maye is the go-to Patriots TD bet of this game.

As for the Raiders, we’re going long shot! My man Nick Giffen might be the biggest Tre Tucker fan I know, and at +700, we’ve already sprinkled on him in the Action app.

Tucker’s role in this offense should continue to grow as defenses focus on stopping TE Brock Bowers. Tucker scored four touchdowns last season with mostly awful quarterback play, and while I expect the Patriots' defense to be improved, they were still 29th in defensive DVOA against the pass last season.

Vrabel is a good coach, but he’s not a miracle worker.

There aren’t many reasons to get excited about the Saints these days, but WR Rashid Shaheed might be the only reason to pay attention. He scored four TDs in six games last year before getting hurt; he’s a legit playmaker in this offense, with a special teams TD in each of the last two seasons.

The Cardinals' pass defense was mostly middle of the pack last year (15th in defensive DVOA vs the pass), but where they played zone at a 70% rate (top 10 in the NFL). That’s when I’d start targeting Shaheed, who historically hasn’t done well when seeing man coverage schemes.

At +370, I’m trusting new head coach Kellen Moore to dial up at least two or three long passes to Shaheed in the end zone, but if you wanted to target TE Juwan Johnson instead at +450, he’d be my only other choice.

I’m expecting big things this year from Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr., but it looks like the betting market is too — he’s as low as +125 to score.

If the Saints continue to play man coverage at a top-10 rate like in 2024, then I’d rather pivot to WR2 Michael Wilson at +425 or a long shot like WR3 Greg Dortch at +900.

Wilson’s role has grown in each season with the Cardinals, and he has seen his snaps and route participation increase year over year. As for Dortch, he could come into play with some snaps in the red zone — two of his three TDs last season came inside the 10-yard line.

Until we see the TD market come around on guys like MHJ or TE Trey McBride, we ride with the long shot!

A lot of rookies come into the NFL with some fanfare, but no player has seen the love from the fantasy and betting community like Bucs wide receiver Emeka Egbuka.

The rookie does come into the NFL with some pedigree, given that he has the most catches and touchdown receptions in the history of Ohio State football. Pretty impressive!

He enters a Bucs passing offense that was one of the most efficient in the NFL last season, but now sees injuries at key skill positions for Week 1 (Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan, and Cade Otton) and to their star left tackle, Tristan Wirfs.

We all know WR1 Mike Evans is the main target in this offense, but Mayfield will likely need to still spread the ball around so Egbuka should be the early beneficiary. At +200 or better, that’s who I’d target for a Bucs touchdown.

Speaking of fantasy fanfare, we enter another season where Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts is being touted to break out. I’ve been off that train for a while, but for a touchdown bet, I’m intrigued.

The main reason is he’s historically done well vs. zone and Cover 3 defenses — that’s the Buccaneers' specialty since they ran both at the highest rate in the NFL in 2024 under head coach Todd Bowles.

Pitts scored three of his four touchdowns last season against zone defenses (two vs. the Bucs), and his receiving metrics were night and day last season compared to when he saw man coverage.

If you wanted to sprinkle a long shot on QB Michael Penix Jr.at +850, I wouldn’t blame you, but given the defensive matchup and recent history, I’ll take a crack at Pitts to live up to some potential.

Rookie quarterbacks tend to scramble a lot more in the NFL because defenses are so fast. Someone like Ward may opt to use his legs and run in the red zone instead of forcing it into a tight window.

Last season, the top-four QBs in scramble rate were all rookies (Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Drake Maye, Caleb Williams). If this trend continues, this means there’s value on Ward to score at those odds, especially with RB2 Tyjae Sharp out.

Outside of Ward, it’s pretty grim for Titans TD scorers. If you wanted to take a shot on TE Chig Okonkwo at +550, I’d be into it because of the expected value, but it’s worth noting the Broncos were No.1 in defensive DVOA vs. TE last season, so it’s a difficult matchup.

My love affair with Marvin Mims Jr. (+275) started last season, and after some crazy highlight plays, I’m back on that train!

He finished 2024 strong with touchdowns in four of his final seven games, along with a pair of two-touchdown games to close the season. Entering his third year, I expect his role to grow even more and for QB Bo Nix to take another leap as a passer in Sean Payton’s offense.

Outside of Mims, it’s difficult to see where the TDs will come. Last year, we saw the Broncos as an equal-opportunity offense. If Mims doesn’t offer enough value for you this week, I’d pass on the Broncos for the time being.

The reality is it's unlikely the Niners spread the ball around that much to justify any of these prices. Just because I love TE George Kittle and the fact that he’s historically crushed the Seahawks (seven TDs in last six regular season matchups) doesn’t mean I can justify a bet on him at +150.

Unless you want to take long shot FB Kyle Juszcyk at +1000 for a fun sprinkle, I’m passing on the 49ers for Week 1.

While I expect the 49ers to be able to control the game on defense, their run defense fell apart last season, and they didn’t really do much in the offseason to address that. That’s why I’m looking at the Seahawks' run game — for me, the biggest edge on the board is RB2 Zach Charbonnet (+400) or QB Sam Darnold (+850).

I love Charbonnet, and while I do have value on him at that price, the issue is the Seahawks keep him on the cooler as long as Kenneth Walker (+125) is in the game. Of Charbonnet’s 10 career touchdowns, only two were scored in games that didn’t feature Walker.

As a result, that leaves us with Darnold. Look, this really comes down to ability and price for me because if you use last season with the Vikings as the barometer, then Darnold should be closer to 15-1.

The price of +850 is a bit higher than what I had projected (+600), and he’s shown an ability to scramble throughout his NFL career.

I’ll admit, it’s pretty loose reasoning, so pass on this game if you can’t get +800 or better on Darnold.

My go-to last season when betting Lions TD scorers was Jameson Williams. It was mostly because the top players like Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, David Montgomery and Sam LaPorta all had steamed TD odds.

Not to say they wouldn’t score, but the value on their TD prop was all but gone by kickoff. Not the case for Williams, who scored eight TDs in 15 games and was routinely in the +190 to +210 range to score in 2024. In this case, at +240, he’s right in the sweet spot.

Given his development each year and the rave reviews he’s been getting in training camp, this is the time to invest in Williams. If he scores here, we might not see odds over +200 again.

As for the Packers, another go-to was typically WR Jayden Reed, but entering the 2025 season, he’s dealing with a fracture in his foot, which could impact his mobility. Couple that with Reed only playing in 3WR sets, there’s too much downside for him at +220.

Instead, I’d rather bank on his teammate Romeo Doubs. He led the Packers in touchdowns vs. man coverage last season, and the Lions ran man defense at the top rate in the NFL.

The Texans' defense might be the strongest unit in the entire league. Their combo of pass rush and pass coverage is nearly unmatched, which means when picking Rams TD scorers, you must be very selective.

Under head coach Demeco Ryans, the Texans tend to mix up their man and zone coverages, which means it's difficult to pinpoint which Ram could have the most success. The one area from last season that was a weakness: they played Cover 4 at a top-five rate last year and allowed the second-most TDs to WRs.

I know it’s not sexy, but that essentially applies to either WR Puka Nacua or Davante Adams. Of the two, I lean toward Adams — mainly because of the touchdown pedigree.

I love Nacua, but while I expect him to make plays in traffic, he’s not really an end-zone threat (10 touchdowns in 30 career games) like we know Adams is.

On the Texans' side, I think QB CJ Stroud is going to test this secondary with a few deep balls, which could lead to touchdowns.

The Rams were bottom five in TDs allowed to WRs last season, along with ranking 28th in defensive DVOA vs. the deep ball. The Rams also played zone at a top-eight rate with an emphasis on Cover 3. This means if you want to bet on WR Nico Collins at +140, I wouldn’t be against it because he matches up best with the Rams’ defensive liabilities.

However, the issue is that Collins should be closer to +170, so there’s not a lot of value on that bet.

Instead, I’d rather take a flier on rookie WR Jayden Higgins at +500. He’s expected to be a full-time starter, and he’s 6-foot-4 with a 4.40 sprint. Will he be the new deep threat for the Texans?

That remains to be seen, but I’d rather bank on Higgins in this spot instead of taking below value on Collins or forcing it to WR Christian Kirk (+250), who plays more in the slot with a lower aDOT.