This is an early test for two of my more intriguing playoff-contender teams. Bengals -3.5 feels heavy; the Bucs are very live here. We have the highest total on the board, meaning plenty of scoring, and we are targeting two of the worst tight-end defenses in the NFL. Cincinnati allowed the most tight end fantasy points in the league in each of the last two seasons. Their sophomore linebackers, Demetrius Knight and Barrett Carter, are a real weak spot. Tampa Bay isn't much better, finishing top-seven in most tight-end points allowed for three straight years—a classic Todd Bowles weakness. Cade Otton had all but two tight end catches for Tampa Bay last season. The Bengals allowed a staggering 116 tight-end receptions last year (6.8 per game), most in the NFL, yielding six or more catches to the position in 12 of 17 games. Otton tends to be more of an all-or-nothing guy. Over the last two years, he had three or fewer catches in 15 of 30 games. That's half, and it means the line at 3.5 receptions doesn't have much standalone value. But Otton also had eight games with 6+ catches (including games of 7, 7, 7, 8, 8, 9, and 9). So I'll skip the median outcomes and attack the Otton alternate lines.

This is an early test for two of my more intriguing playoff-contender teams. Bengals -3.5 feels heavy; the Bucs are very live here. We have the highest total on the board, meaning plenty of scoring, and we are targeting two of the worst tight-end defenses in the NFL. Cincinnati allowed the most tight end fantasy points in the league in each of the last two seasons. Their sophomore linebackers, Demetrius Knight and Barrett Carter, are a real weak spot. Tampa Bay isn't much better, finishing top-seven in most tight-end points allowed for three straight years—a classic Todd Bowles weakness. Cade Otton had all but two tight end catches for Tampa Bay last season. The Bengals allowed a staggering 116 tight-end receptions last year (6.8 per game), most in the NFL, yielding six or more catches to the position in 12 of 17 games. Otton tends to be more of an all-or-nothing guy. Over the last two years, he had three or fewer catches in 15 of 30 games. That's half, and it means the line at 3.5 receptions doesn't have much standalone value. But Otton also had eight games with 6+ catches (including games of 7, 7, 7, 8, 8, 9, and 9). So I'll skip the median outcomes and attack the Otton alternate lines.