Wilson’s Week 1 box score (1/5/0) looks worse than it should have. He had 56 air yards on 4 targets, 2nd most on the team, and probably should have walked away with 2 catches for 20+ yards. I do expect him to bounce back with a line closer to that here, but this market still exposes his lower floor. Zay Jones, who Arizona traded for last year, had a much bigger role right out of the gate than he saw in 2024, which was expected based on late camp reports. Specifically, Jones played more in 2WR sets. In a game where the Cardinals are likely to play with a lead and lean on the run against a weak Panthers defense, we could see fewer 3-4 WR sets, which cuts into Wilson’s opportunities. On top of that, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride should both see higher target rates going forward. With Tip Reiman out, Arizona is likely to use Elijah Higgins more, and Higgins commands a higher target rate than Reiman. That could siphon an extra look away from Wilson. Even if the Cardinals dial up another 4 throws Wilson’s way at his 14.8-yard aDOT, it’s unlikely he hauls in 3+ here. I have him projected closer to 2.2 receptions with about a 62% chance to stay under 2.5.

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