Kenneth Walker III Longest Rush over 16.5 yards (-118 Caesars, -120 at FD/DK) In 18 games this year (including the playoffs), Walker's median longest rush has been 17.5 yards and he's cleared 16.5 in exactly half his games. However, that was while splitting a backfield with Zach Charbonnet who is now out with a torn ACL, meaning KWIII should get the full load of carries, which is reflected in his rushing attempt line of 19.5. That attempts line is more than he's had all season (maximum of 19 in a game), so he'll like have extra opportunities to clear this prop than nearly all the rest of his games, making his season-long median a bit low. In fact, four of his five lowest volume games also produced four of his five lowest longest gain games. When looking at 13 games where he cleared 11+ rushing attempts, his median longest rush jumps to 20, and two of those games came against these very Los Angeles Rams. See, the Rams ordinarily would be a tough matchup, but 42.1% of Walker's rushing attempts have been outside zone runs where the Rams run defense has been weakeast, ranking slightly worse than league average in preventing explosive plays and allowing the seventh-longest yards per carry on these plays. Walker's next most utilized run is inside zone runs, where he has a whopping 14.6% explosive run rate, which is double the next best qualified rusher, D'Andre Swift at 7.3%, so while the Rams have done well shutting this down, we'd expect Walker to still break a long one at an above average rate. This is a hefty number to clear, but the extra volume combined with a relatively neutral matchup in which he's already cleared this number twice is the tipping point that pushes me over.

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