The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1) and Detroit Lions (4-2) face off in the first of two Monday Night Football games on October 20. Kickoff is set for in 7:00 p.m. ET from Ford Field in Detroit, Mich. The game will broadcast live on ABC and ESPN.
The Lions are 6-point favorites on the spread; the game total is set at 53 points. Detroit is a -275 moneyline favorite and Tampa Bay is a +225 underdog.
Below, you can find my Monday Night Football preview and Buccaneers vs Lions predictions.
Buccaneers vs Lions Prediction
- Buccaneers vs Lions pick: +800 Same-Game Parlay on DraftKings
My Buccaneers vs Lions best bet is a parlay featuring the Lions' team total and props for Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff and David Montgomery. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Buccaneers vs Lions Odds
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | +225 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | -275 |
Buccaneers vs Lions Monday Night Football Preview
Mike Evans (hamstring) and Emeka Ebuka (hamstring) are both listed as questionable and considered game-time decisions for tonight's game.
For what it's worth, 65-of-72 (90.2%) of Buccaneers players who have been listed as questionable have suited up under head Todd Bowles dating back to last season.
That it largely has not mattered who is playing wide receiver for the Bucs as long as Baker Mayfield is at quarterback is a bit of a false narrative — they promptly went on a four-game losing streak starting with the Ravens game in which Chris Godwin and Mike Evans went down last season, and their only loss this season came in Week 4 against the Eagles, which was Evans' first missed game and Godwin's first game back.
Still, it may matter here — the Lions tend to put up an ungodly amount of points at home, averaging 43.0 points per game this season (first), 34.9 in 2024 (first), 29.9 in 2023 (fifth) and 33.1 in 2022 (first).
The last time the Bucs lost by more than six points on the road was Jan. 21, 2024 — a home playoff game against the Lions.
From a betting perspective, the surest thing about this matchup is it sets up as a Jared Goff game.
The Lions put up huge point totals at home and they are favored with a total over 50. They face a pass-funnel Bucs defense that ranks sixth in DVOA against the run but 20th against the pass.
Since 2022, Goff is averaging 2.3 TDs per game passing at home compared to 1.3 on the road. The Bucs blitz at a high rate, and Goff is 36-of-49 (73.5%) for 9.6 YPA, 5 TDs and 0 INT against the blitz this season, per PFF.
Buccaneers vs Lions Prediction, Betting Analysis
In lieu of a pick on the spread or total, I'm going to present my favorite parlay for this MNF contest:
Lions team total over 29.5 (-125)
The Lions have put up 30+ points in 4-of-6 games this season and 16-of-24 (66.7%) games since the start of last season, including 9-of-12 at home.
Jared Goff 3+ pass TDs (+200)
Goff has thrown 3+ TDs in 9-of-24 (37.5%) games since the start of last season.
David Montgomery under 42.5 rushing yards(-110)
Montgomery is averaging 33.7 rushing yards in his last three games.
Baker Mayfield 2+ pass TDs (-173)
Mayfield has multiple passing touchdowns in 5-of-6 games this season, and the Lions have allowed multiple passing TDs in 5-of-6.
Pick: 4-Leg MNF Parlay (+800; DraftKings)
Editor's Note: The Lions' team total has ticked up to 30.5, but 29.5 is still available as alternate total at -125 odds.
Spread
This does not set up as the type of game where you want to bet on the spread.
The Bucs are No. 1 in our Luck Rankings while the Lions are 21st, and per Nick Giffen, unlucky favorites are 55-33-3 (62.5%) ATS since 2018.
Under head coach Dan Campbell, the Lions have been even more profitable ATS as a favorite (27-10-1, 73%) than as an underdog (24-12, 67%). But the Bucs have been equally unsafe to fade in this type of spot, with a 15-7 (68%) record ATS as a 'dog with Baker Mayfield.
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline for similar reasons mentioned in the spread section.
Over/Under
I have no play on the game total. I'd rather play Lions team total.
