Kalshi vs. Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Is Best for You?

Comparing Kalshi and Polymarket in December 2025

Kalshi is a fully regulated U.S. exchange under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that lets you trade event contracts in USD. Polymarket is a crypto, USDC-based platform with rapid listings and global access that remains restricted for most North Americans.

Want the matchup at a glance? Go to the Key Differences section below, then keep reading for fees, market variety, deposits, payouts, and legality.

For more info about both companies, check out the Kalshi Referral Code and Polymarket Promo Code.

Kalshi vs Polymarket Key Takeaways for December 2025

Kalshi

Polymarket

Regulatory Status

CFTC Designated Contract Market with a published rulebook

Crypto prediction market with on-chain settlement; historically restricted in the U.S. while pursuing compliant access

Legal States

Federally legal to trade event contracts via a DCM, subject to listings and any state actions

Global access for non-U.S. users; U.S. access tied to compliant rollout

Deposit Methods

USD via ACH and bank transfer; debit card available

USDC only; connect a crypto wallet on Polygon

Event Categories

Economic indicators (CPI, jobs, rates), politics, weather, sports

Politics and elections, sports, tech, culture, breaking news

Fees

Trading fees on expected earnings; $0 ACH; posted card/transfer fees

No trading fees on core markets; on-chain network fees apply

Liquidity

Exchange order book with market makers and partner distribution

Crypto order book with large election-cycle flows and rapid listings

Payout structure

$1 for “Yes,” $0 for “No,” per contract rules

1.00 USDC for winners, 0 for losers, on-chain resolution

Bonuses & Promos

Trade on Sports & Politics – Get a $10 Bonus with Our Code!

Varies by campaign; none guaranteed

Same category, different model. Kalshi operates as a fully regulated U.S. exchange with formally defined contracts under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Polymarket is USDC-powered and known for fast listings with global access outside U.S. restrictions.

How Kalshi and Polymarket differ: who can legally trade, how quickly markets list, what you’ll pay, how deep the book is, and whether you fund with USD or USDC.

TL;DR 📜

  • Model: Kalshi = federally regulated exchange. Polymarket = on-chain platform using USDC.

  • Access: Kalshi serves U.S. users. Polymarket limits U.S. trading while operating globally.

  • Markets: Kalshi leans macro, politics, weather, and growing sports with formal contract specs. Polymarket spins up politics, sports, tech, and culture fast.

  • Fees: Kalshi charges trading and payment-rail fees. Polymarket has zero trading fees, with small network costs on-chain.

  • Money movement: Kalshi uses ACH and bank transfers in USD. Polymarket requires a crypto wallet and USDC.

  • Settlement: Both resolve binaries the same way. Winners receive $1 (or 1.00 USDC), losers receive $0.

Regulation & Legality 👩‍⚖️

Kalshi

A federally regulated Designated Contract Market. You can trade event contracts in the U.S. under a published rulebook with surveillance, dispute pathways, and controlled listings. If legality is your first filter, this is the fully regulated option.

Polymarket

Runs on chain and settles in USDC. U.S. trading has been restricted since a CFTC action, while the platform continues operating for non-U.S. users and has signaled plans to expand compliant access. Wallet management and jurisdiction rules matter much more here than on a traditional exchange.

Bottom line: Kalshi leans on exchange oversight and documented resolution. Polymarket leans on transparent smart contracts and public on-chain history. Different protections, different trade-offs for traders and investors.

Market Types & Event Variety 📈

Kalshi lists markets where every contract has a published rule set that names the event, the official data source, and the exact settlement conditions ($1 for Yes, $0 for No). Coverage includes inflation, interest rates, employment, weather, entertainment, and politics, with sports expanding through different partners.

Polymarket casts a wider net. It lists contracts across a presidential election, sports, culture, and tech. New markets can go live within hours of breaking news, so if you want the quickest listings and the broadest topical stream, Polymarket usually leads.

Liquidity, Fees, & Payout Structure 💲

Liquidity

Kalshi runs a central limit order book on a regulated exchange. Bids and asks meet in USD, with liquidity supported by market makers and distribution from fiat-facing partners. Polymarket uses an on-chain order book settled in USDC. Depth usually spikes around election news, court rulings, and big sports weekends.

Fees

Kalshi charges trading fees based on expected earnings, plus standard payment-rail costs where they apply. ACH can be free; card rails and certain transfers have posted fees. Polymarket has no trading fee on core markets, but you’ll pay small blockchain network fees when you move USDC. If you plan to trade headlines frequently, compare total costs (platform plus rails) before you pick a side.

Payouts

Both are binary. A winning “Yes” pays 1; a losing share pays 0. On Polymarket, that 1 is 1.00 USDC. Prices map to implied probabilities, so 0.63 reflects a 63% chance the outcome hits.

Deposits, Withdrawals, & Currency💰

Kalshi

Link a bank account and move money by ACH or bank transfer. No wallet setup, no keys to manage. Good if you want a more traditional path on a regulated platform.

Polymarket

USDC only. Connect a compatible crypto wallet on Polygon and fund it with USDC. Transfers are low-cost once you’re set up, but you’re responsible for keys and on-chain movements.

Timing Notes

ACH follows bank timing and compliance checks, so plan ahead. On-chain speed depends on the network and your wallet. If you expect heavy news flow (like political debates, CPI mornings, playoff Sundays), make sure funds are in place before volume hits.

In short, pick Kalshi for a regulated U.S. exchange with USD funding to trade politics and macro. Pick Polymarket for on-chain speed, USDC settlement, and a constant feed of new listings.

About Kalshi

Kalshi was founded by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara in New York. In the year 2020, it received DCM status from the CFTC, becoming the first U.S. exchange for regulated event trading. That framework means posted rules and defined settlement for every event you trade.

Leadership and growth: Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour leads the company; 2025 funding rounds drew investor interest and Bloomberg coverage, and the exchange reported record activity into November. What it’s known for today: macro releases like CPI and jobs, interest-rate decisions, weather, and politics, with sports expanding through partners.

Use code ACTION to take advantage of the following welcome offer: Trade on Sports & Politics – Get a $10 Bonus with Our Code!

About Polymarket

Polymarket launched in 2020 and is led by Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan. Prices run from 0 to 1 in USDC and settle on chain, so each trade and payout is recorded on the blockchain and can be verified. The product began with an AMM and now uses a central limit order book to deepen liquidity and tighten spreads. It’s a go-to for fast, topical events across politics, sports, tech, and culture when news hits.

U.S. trading has been limited since a 2022 CFTC action, while non-U.S. users continue to trade. In 2025, the company announced a $112 million deal to acquire a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, a big step toward winning the race on compliant U.S. availability.

How Do Prediction Markets Operate? 💭

Think of price as probability. In a prediction market, a “Yes” at 0.62 implies a 62% chance of that outcome. Traders buy and sell around news flow, polls, and opinions, and can exit early if the view changes. At resolution, winners receive 1 (or 1.00 USDC), losers receive 0. That binary payout is why prices feel like odds, whether you trade macro prints, sports, or a high-visibility election market that mentions Donald Trump by name.

Two quick tips that help: read the contract rules and make sure you agree with the listed data source and settlement trigger, and plan funding in advance of key listing moments so you’re not waiting for transfers while the market moves.

Final Thoughts on Kalshi and Polymarket

If you want a federally controlled lane with USD rails, Kalshi is the pick. It’s a CFTC-designated exchange with contract specs, surveillance, and clear rules. If you want on-chain speed and the widest stream of fresh listings, Polymarket is the best crypto option out there. For most North Americans, that’s the crux of Kalshi vs Polymarket: legality and access first, everything else follows.

A few tips: check the fee math before you trade news. Kalshi charges on expected earnings, while Polymarket has no trading fees, but you’ll pay small network costs. Verify your jurisdiction and chose your payment method in advance of a presidential election week or a big sports slate, and start small until you’re comfortable with how each prediction market settles an outcome.

Read More: Spotify Top Songs Predictions on Kalshi

Read More: Grand Theft Auto 6 Prediction Markets

Virginia Gandolfo Author Image

Virginia Gandolfo is a writer with over six years of experience creating thoughtful, audience-focused content. She has worked across industries like cryptocurrency, sports betting, dental care, and more, specializing in making complex topics easy to understand. Her goal is to create content that speaks to readers first, then seamlessly aligns with SEO.

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Kalshi vs Polymarket FAQs
What’s the main difference between Kalshi and Polymarket?

Kalshi vs Polymarket comes down to model: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated U.S. exchange based in NYC, while Polymarket is a crypto prediction market that runs in USDC on-chain.

Is Kalshi fully regulated by the CFTC?

Yes. Kalshi is a Designated Contract Market regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, giving North Americans a controlled path to trade with a published rulebook and surveillance.

Can North Americans trade on Polymarket?

For now, trading is blocked for most North Americans; access varies by country and hinges on a planned acquisition and final approvals for a compliant U.S. rollout.

Do Kalshi and Polymarket offer sports markets?

Yep, both platforms list sports markets among their offerings, alongside politics and culture.

Which platform has better liquidity?

It depends on the category. Kalshi often shows deeper liquidity in macro and election markets, while Polymarket can see liquidity racking up around polls and late-breaking news during presidential election months.

How do Kalshi and Polymarket settle contracts?

Both resolve binary outcomes the same way, so winning traders win $1 per “Yes” (1.00 USDC on Polymarket) and losing shares settle at $0 when the market ends.