The Oklahoma City Thunder (38-11) and Denver Nuggets (33-16) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET from Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Thunder are 5.5-point favorites over the Nuggets on the spread (Thunder -5.5), with the over/under set at 224.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -186 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Denver is +155 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, February 1.
Thunder vs Nuggets Prediction, Picks
- Thunder vs Nuggets pick: Peyton Watson Under 17.5 Points (-110)
My Nuggets vs Thunder best bet is on Peyton Watson under 17.5 points. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Thunder vs Nuggets Odds
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 224.5 -110o / -110u | -186 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 224.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
Thunder vs Nuggets NBA Preview
After jumping out to a 24-1 start, the Oklahoma City Thunder look like mere mortals again, going 14-10 over their last 24 games.
It's almost hard to fathom that OKC has already lost back-to-back games three times this season, and they'll look to avoid another consecutive loss coming off Thursday's 123-111 defeat on the road to the Timberwolves.
The good news for the Thunder is that they have had two full days of rest before facing the Nuggets on Sunday night. It's worth noting that OKC is 8-1 straight up during this campaign when it has at least two days of rest.
Furthermore, their opponents are averaging just 102.9 points per game in this spot.
However, the Nuggets certainly aren't your normal run-of-the-mill team. Denver has the second-best record in the conference at 33-16 despite being without their best player, Nikola Jokic, for a month due to a knee injury.
Jokic is now back with the Nuggets and needed only 25 minutes to register 31 points, 12 rebounds and five assists in Denver's victory over the Clippers on Friday.
Since the Nuggets pushed the Thunder to a seven-game series in the playoffs last season, there's no question they are more than capable of going toe-to-toe with the reigning champions.
And while I'd normally look to take a punt on the home underdogs, injuries to Christian Braun (ankle) and Aaron Gordon (hamstring) are enough to keep me off the Nuggets as a side.
The total does offer some intrigue at 224.5, with the under showing the most value. Denver averaged 102.8 points in the six games prior to Jokic's return.
However, as soon as Jokic came back, the Nuggets dropped 122 points against Los Angeles. As a result, Jokic's return to action might pose the biggest threat for under bettors in this matchup.
Although my model projects a total of 224 points, I prefer to approach this matchup from a different angle that remains consistent with my theory for a lower-scoring game.
Thunder vs Nuggets Predictions, Betting Analysis
The numbers show that OKC tends to bounce back from losses after an extended rest. OKC already enters this game as the league's best defensive team, allowing 105.7 points per 100 possessions.
Denver's Peyton Watson has seen his role grow within the team while filling in for Braun. Watson has already started 36 games compared to just 18 all of last season.
The lengthy Nuggets guard is averaging a career-best 14.7 points per game and is coming off a 21-point performance against the Clippers.
However, his prop line of 17.5 points feels inflated against a defensive juggernaut like OKC. Watson has stayed under 17.5 points in 16 of his last 19 games when facing a top-10 defense.
Moreover, Watson has stayed under this prop line in 11 straight games against the Thunder.
With Jokic possibly spoiling our chances of this game staying under, targeting Payton’s prop line might just be our best path to cashing a ticket.
Pick: Peyton Watson Under 17.5 Points (-110, bet365)
Spread
We will not be betting either side of the spread in this game.
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline as well.
Over/Under
Our Spurs vs. Magic betting prediction is on the Over at 225.5 total points.
Nuggets vs Thunder Betting Trends
