The long-standing "will he or won't he" saga regarding Giannis Antetokounmpo has reached a fever pitch. After years of loyalty, the latest reports indicate that the "Greek Freak" is finally open to a change of scenery.
Reports from ESPN and other major insiders indicate that Giannis has communicated he is "ready for a new home." While not a formal public trade demand, it is the strongest signal yet that his tenure in Milwaukee is nearing its end.
Milwaukee has reportedly begun listening to offers. Their asking price is astronomical—a "blue-chip" young star and a massive haul of draft picks.
Prediction markets apps like Kalshi have responded accordingly, with the "Stays with Milwaukee or Retires" event contract dipping by several points since the news was announced. Conversely, event contracts for Giannis going to the Knicks, Heat, and Hawks are in the green.
If you're interested in trading on prediction markets regarding Giannis' next team, use the Kalshi promo code for a $10 new-user offer.
Latest Giannis Next Team Odds at Kalshi
Here are the latest odds concerning the Giannis next team market at Kalshi:
Why Giannis Might Be Traded
Several factors have converged to create this "perfect storm" for Giannis' divorce from the Bucks.
For one, the Bucks are currently 18–27, sitting 12th in the Eastern Conference and effectively out of the championship conversation.
Plus, Giannis is currently sidelined with a right calf strain and is expected to be out for 4–6 weeks, further dimming the team’s playoff hopes.
There's also roster fatigue, as moves to bring in talent (like the Damian Lillard trade in 2023 and the signing of Myles Turner) have not yielded the desired results, leaving the team with limited assets to improve.
Potential New Homes for Giannis
While nearly every NBA team would want Giannis, three teams have emerged as the rumored preferred destinations:
- Miami Heat: Viewed by many as the frontrunner with the most "aggressive" interest.
- New York Knicks: Always a threat in big-market sweeps.
- Atlanta Hawks: Reportedly possess the "best realistic trade package" in the league, centered around a potentially top-five 2026 first-round pick.
Giannis Antetokounmpo's Next Team? Market on Kalshi
The latest updates regarding Giannis and the Bucks make the trade feel inevitable. However, the Bucks aren't necessarily in a rush to sell their franchise icon, so the important question is when rather than if.
The quick dip of the "Stays with Milwaukee or Retires" event contract on Kalshi could be a prime example of market overreaction. Giannis would have to be traded by the February 5 trade deadline for new-team contracts to resolve to Yes—if he's traded at a later date, these team contracts would resolve to No.
What Is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
