The Indiana Pacers (2-2) and Oklahoma City Thunder (2-2) will face off in Game 5 of the NBA Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Thunder are 9.5-point favorites over the Pacers on the spread (Thunder -9.5), with the over/under set at 224.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -425 favorite to win outright, while Indiana is +325 to pull off the upset.
The Thunder pulled themselves from the brink to even the series and recapture homecourt advantage last game. Just when all hope seemed lost, the No. 1 overall seed retook the high ground and put themselves in position to take their first series lead with a win in Game 5 tonight.
Will Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers pull off another shocker? Or will order be restored, as MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder move into check-position for the NBA title? Let's get into my Pacers vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Monday, June 16.
Pacers vs. Thunder Picks, Prediction for NBA Finals Game 5
My Thunder vs. Pacers Game 5 best bet is on Indiana to cover the spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Pacers +9.5 (-110)
Pacers vs. Thunder Odds for Monday, June 16
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 224.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 224.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
- Pacers vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -9.5
- Pacers vs. Thunder over/under: 224.5 total points
- Pacers vs. Thunder moneyline: Pacers +325, Thunder -425
- Pacers vs. Thunder best bet: Pacers +9.5
Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals Game 5 Preview
The Pacers got a taste of their own medicine in OKC's fourth quarter comeback victory last game, and now they head back to Oklahoma City having lost a golden opportunity to put the Thunder down and out.
Now, it’s a best-of-three series, and the Pacers will have to do what they’ve been best at in these playoffs and steal another road game from the best team in the league.
The Thunder made some adjustments last game, but largely didn’t win because of them.
One adjustment that did work was having Jalen Williams bring the ball up the floor and having Shai Gilgeous-Alexander screen for him, forcing a guard-guard switch to get Andrew Nembhard off him.
An interesting wrinkle is that throughout the series, Shai isn’t lighting up Nesmith (44% on matchups) compared to Nembhard (42.4%). But the Thunder offense is 26 points per 100 possessions better with Nesmith on Shai.
The fourth quarter of last game was mostly about tough shot making from Shai, offensive rebounds from the Thunder (who don’t typically dominate the offensive glass), and one key defensive adjustment.
Instead of playing drop coverage by having Chet Holmgren retreat to the paint when guarding Tyrese Haliburton pick-and-rolls, where Haliburton has destroyed them with floaters and hesitation moves, the Thunder switched to daring Haliburton to beat the 10-foot-ladder-for-a-wingspan Holmgren off the bounce.
The result was missed shots and the Pacers’ offense grinding to dust.
You can bet Rick Carlisle will have counters for this in Game 5, as the Thunder needed to use just about everything they had to avoid going down 3-1.
Pacers vs. Thunder Betting Predictions for NBA Finals Game 5
Pacers +9.5 (-110)
Let’s talk market.
The Thunder have been overrated in the betting market on the road, but are 8-3 at home ATS overall. The market’s belief that they are dominant has mostly been rewarded.
But the Thunder were 10.5-point favorites in Game 1 vs. Denver, and lost outright. They were then 10.5-point favorites in Game 2, a must-win, and covered with ease. But then in Game 5 back in OKC, in a tied series, they were 10.5-point favorites again and failed to cover.
So their eight home covers are comprised of:
- Two dominant home wins over a Memphis team that was a shell of itself.
- The must-win Game 2 against Denver, who played a grueling seven-game series vs. LA and then stole Game 1.
- Three dominant home wins over a Minnesota team that had the worst imaginable game plan in that series from start to finish.
Not to simplify this with some post hoc ergo propter hoc stuff, but it sure looks like the Thunder home cover rate is magnified if their matchup is positive, and diminished if the matchup is negative.
That’s simple and obvious: if you’re in a good matchup, you perform better than expected, and if you’re in a bad matchup, you do worse.
But sometimes, teams as dominant as the Thunder are matchup-proof. Oklahoma City is not.
Furthermore, there’s no adjustment here. We’re right back to the base power rating prior to the first matchup of this series. Does that make sense, given what we’ve seen through four games?
Let’s take a look at some trends:
- Teams tied 2-2 in the Finals as home favorites coming off a Game 4 win (tied the series in Game 4) are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS. After Round 1, those teams are 16-4 SU and 12-8 ATS.
- 1-seeds in a tied series in Game 5 are 26-10 SU, but just 16-20 ATS.
- 1-seeds as home favorites in the Finals are 32-15 SU and 24-21-2 ATS.
- This is just the second time since 2003 that a team has been more than a 9-point favorite in a Game 5 of a Finals tied 2-2; the other being Golden State against Cleveland, who were without Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving in the 2015 Finals.
- The Thunder's average margin of victory in their nine home wins (two losses) in these playoffs is 26.6. They are 8-1 ATS when they win outright, covering by 16 points per game.
- Teams coming off a home loss where they lead by more than seven points, on the road, are 7-2 SU and ATS in the Finals, 2-0 SU and ATS in Game 5s. Pull that back to the conference finals or finals though, and those teams are just 14-14 SU and 15-13 ATS. They are 54-67 SU, 71-50 (59%) ATS in all playoff games.
I think Oklahoma City wins Game 5 tonight. But this is too many points for them to lay in this matchup, against this Indiana team.
The Thunder are great when the opponent is outmatched or it’s a must-win spot (Game 2 in Denver and Indiana series). This is not that, it’s 2-2. I think the Pacers keep this one close enough to cover the spread.
I will also play some same game parlays for value with Pacers +9.5 and Thunder moneyline, despite history saying that underdogs win outright if they cover and favorites cover if they win.
Thunder Team Total Over 116.5 (-125)
Holy overcorrection, Batman. This series has been steamed over and over again toward the over.
Last game was apparently the breaking point, as after Game 5 opened at 224.5, a point lower than Game 4, it was instantly steamed all the way down to 222.5.
But the over bettors will not be denied. It’s back up to 225 as I write this, meaning we’ve moved five total points (two down, three up) since Friday night.
We’re tracking 82% of tickets and 88% of money on the over for this one.
I thought the total was too high after it was steamed in Games 1,3, and 4. I was ready to fire on the over when this dipped down to 222.5, but wanted to see where it went. Now, most of the value is gone.
But I do like the Thunder team total over 116.5. Oklahoma City is likely to get better shooting performances and is figuring out how they need to attack a very good Pacers defense.
This series might be working towards an over series by the end of it after starting under, as opposed to most series which start over and trend under the later it gets.
As I like the Pacers to cover and the Thunder team total over, I have to inherently lean towards the over. But if I’m wrong about either, the other gains strength.
If it’s a lower-scoring game, nine is too many points. If the Pacers get blown out, OKC is probably putting up a big number.
So, I’ll play both and stay away from the combined over despite the correlation, and hope for a high-scoring nail-biter in Game 5 tonight.
Tyrese Haliburton Under 25.5 Points + Assists (-110)
Haliburton has gone under this line in three of the four games in the series.
The last time a team switched against him like Oklahoma City did in the fourth quarter of last game was the Cavs series, where he went under this in three of the four games after Cleveland started using that tactic.
Haliburton isn’t comfortable attacking bigs off the dribble. He doesn’t have the burst to get by them. He isn’t a grifter to draw free throws, and typically likes a ton of space on pull-ups.
The best thing about switching is it requires less help so your wing defenders can stay home on shooters, denying Haliburton kick-outs in this case.
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists (+120)
Hartenstein snuck over this line of 8.5 last game despite miserable shooting from both him and other Thunder players.
I continue to think the best way to counter how the Pacers are defending is to get Hartenstein on the middle short-roll instead of that baseline floater, which I feel like he hasn’t hit since early in the Denver series.
I think he’ll continue to play a bigger role in this series, not smaller.
Jalen Williams Over 27.5 Points + Assists (-112)
Williams is bringing the ball up more to give Shai a rest.
He’s the most aggressive Thunder player driving to the basket and has gotten comfortable in his matchup, and his assist opportunities are actually being converted.
Cason Wallace Under 10.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-140)
Wallace has the worst net rating of any Thunder rotation player in this series, and I would not be surprised if he were phased out for Aaron Wiggins and more Alex Caruso moving forward.
Pacers vs. Thunder Game 5 Best Bets
- Pacers +9.5 (-110)
- Thunder Team Total Over 116.5 (-125)
- Tyrese Haliburton Under 25.5 Points + Assists (-110)
- Isaiah Hartenstein Over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists (+120)
- Jalen Williams Over 27.5 Points + Assists (-112)
- Cason Wallace Under 10.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-140)
Thunder vs. Pacers Betting Trends
