Week 4 of the college football season is here. There are a lot of solid games on the board, so let's dive into three of the biggest.
First, we'll start in Norman, where the No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners take on the No. 22 Auburn Tigers in an early ranked SEC clash.
Then, we'll head to the Big Ten, as Dylan Raiola and the Nebraska Cornhuskers host Bryce Underwood and the No. 21 Michigan Wolverines in a game between two quarterbacks with impressive pedigrees.
Finally, we'll close things out with an SEC/ACC showdown, as the Florida Gators head to Coral Gables to face the No. 4 Miami Hurricanes in an in-state rivalry.
With so much to get to, let's take a look at my Week 4 college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Saturday, September 20.
College Football Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer is targeting from Week 4's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Auburn vs Oklahoma Pick
The Auburn Tigers take on the Oklahoma Sooners in Norman, Oklahoma, on Saturday, Sept. 20. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Oklahoma is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -250. Auburn, meanwhile, is a +6.5 underdog and comes in at +205 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The cover/under sits at 49.5 points.
Here’s my Auburn vs. Oklahoma prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 20.
Auburn Tigers
Jackson Arnold has enjoyed new life as an SEC quarterback at Auburn since transferring from Oklahoma. The junior has thrown for more than 500 yards with four touchdowns on the season.
An opening win over Baylor can be directly attributed to his career-high 150 rushing yards.
The Tigers have overcome a pitiful 2024 offensive campaign, backed by an explosive group of wide receivers and a Finishing Drives rank inside the top 10.
While the offense has been able to open up the playbook for head coach Hugh Freeze, the defense has shown struggles in different areas.
Baylor executed on 13 passes that exceeded 12 yards, while South Alabama generated a methodical drive on nearly every possession.
Auburn resides outside the top 100 in both Defensive Rush and Pass EPA, giving up explosives in both standard downs and passing downs.
After missing 17 tackles against Baylor, the Tigers would miss another 15 against South Alabama in Week 3.
Oklahoma Sooners
Quarterback John Mateer has conducted a new-look, explosive offense for Oklahoma. The Washington State transfer has coordinator Ben Arbuckle's offense in the top 50 in Success Rate, with a top-40 number in Finishing Drives.
On 11 drives that have crossed the opponent's 40-yard line, the Sooners have averaged a huge 5.4 points per opportunity.
Oklahoma's top four targets have combined for 59 catches and an average of at least 12 yards per catch.
The return to play-calling for head coach Brett Venables has paid dividends for Oklahoma on the defensive side of the ball.
The Sooners are the second-best pass defense in terms of Success Rate and have also generated a top-10 mark in Quality Drives allowed and Finishing Drives allowed.
Third downs have been a nightmare for offenses facing Oklahoma, as the Sooners have allowed just 7-of-41 attempts to be converted.
Auburn vs Oklahoma Prediction
Despite toppling Baylor, Auburn had a number of red flags pop up. The Bears beat the Tigers in overall yards per play while exposing a secondary that has issues in coverage and tackling fundamentals.
Auburn ranks 105th in tackle grading, per PFF. That could be troublesome against the top four targets in Oklahoma's passing attack, as Deion Burks, Keontez Lewis, Isaiah Sategna and Jaren Kanak have forced 17 missed tackles after the catch.
Auburn will look to continue to play Cover 3 and quarters against Oklahoma, but a coverage grade of 122nd could spell trouble against the Sooners.
Furthermore, Mateer has engineered one of the most dangerous offenses in the nation when behind the chains.
Oklahoma sits 11th in Passing Downs Success Rate and 22nd in explosives, compared to an Auburn defense that sits outside the top 100 in explosive allowed in later downs.
Pick: Oklahoma -6.5 or Better
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Michigan vs Nebraska Pick
The Michigan Wolverines take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers in Lincoln, Neb. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Michigan is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -135. Nebraska, meanwhile, is a +2.5 underdog and comes in at +114 to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 45.5 points.
Here’s my Michigan vs. Nebraska prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 20.
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan had a successful bounce back from a loss at Oklahoma, pounding Central Michigan by a score of 63-3.
Associate head coach and former Charlotte head coach Biff Poggi acted as interim in the blowout, and he's set to serve in the same role as Sherrone Moore continues a suspension.
The development of freshman sensation quarterback Bryce Underwood continues, as the former five-star prospect threw two turnover-worthy plays against Central Michigan.
The biggest weapon for the Michigan signal-caller is his ability to scramble, generating 87 rushing yards off broken plays in Week 3.
Michigan has been a rush-heavy team, running the ball at a 60% rate against Central Michigan, Oklahoma and New Mexico.
The overall efficiency numbers are lagging in the top 50, but Justice Haynes continues to dominate with 3.8 yards after first contact behind an offensive line that ranks 14th in Stuff Rate.
Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has called an efficient stop unit to this point, but a lack of pass rush has led to a number of explosive plays through the air.
Dual-threat Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer posted seven explosive passes against the Wolverines, leading to numerous scoring attempts.
The Michigan defense has not stiffened in the red zone, allowing more than half of opponent attempts to end in a touchdown. The Wolverines have allowed 11 opponent offensive possessions to cross the 40-yard line, surrendering 4 points per trip.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
The Nebraska offense has been a balanced attack to this point, but quarterback Dylan Raiola has led a successful passing attack.
With a low average depth of target at 6.8 yards, the sophomore quarterback has eight touchdowns but lacks when it comes to creating big-time throws.
Targets Dane Key and Jacory Barney Jr. have been the stat stuffers to this point, each averaging at least 2.3 yards per route run.
Defensively, the Blackshirts have yielded poor results against the rush thus far in the season.
The Cornhuskers sit bottom-15 in Defensive Rush Efficiency and Line Yards, with a number just outside the top 100 in Stuff Rate. Those numbers come against a schedule that includes Houston Christian, Akron and Cincinnati.
In fact, the Zips produced five rushes that exceeded 12 yards, while the Bearcats averaged 6.7 yards per carry on 30 attempts.
Michigan vs Nebraska Prediction
Michigan should have no issues generating offense on the ground, as Nebraska has severe struggles against the rush.
The Wolverines have been balanced in terms of run concept, with an even distribution between man, power and inside-outside zone read. Each has created a healthy Success Rate, with the biggest rate of explosiveness coming from power run concepts.
Nebraska has severe struggles against outside zone with a 32% Success Rate — far beyond defending man concepts at a 23% Success Rate. Haynes should be considered for any yardage and touchdown props.
The answer for Nebraska must come in the form of Raiola's arm, which is hitting targets in the short field. The Cornhuskers have feasted on targets within the hashmarks short of 10 yards down the field.
While Tampa 2 and Cover 1 Robber are the best schemes to use against short passing dumps, Michigan will play a heavy amount of quarters. That scheme with a "Robber" adjustment will ask safeties TJ Metcalf and Brandyn Hillman to cover the crossing routes.
Both safeties have graded out average through three games, as neither has recorded a pass breakup while allowing 8-of-10 targets to be caught.
Nebraska offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen has made the Huskers a top-10 team in Quality Drives, which is the ability to create a 10-plus play drive that extends three minutes and ends with a score.
With that said, both teams should find ways to put points on the board on Saturday.
Pick: Over 45.5 or Better
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Florida vs Miami Pick
The Florida Gators take on the Miami Hurricanes in Miami Gardens, Florida, on Saturday, Sept. 20. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Miami is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -305. Florida, meanwhile, is a +7.5 underdog and comes in at +245 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 51.5 points.
Here’s my Florida vs. Miami prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 20.
Florida Gators
The Florida schedule doesn't get any easier after consecutive losses to USF and LSU. The Gators are now tasked with taking an undisciplined offense to Hard Rock Stadium against a Miami defense that ranks top-25 in Defensive Havoc.
Make no mistake on the primary issue of the Gators offense — it's their ranking of 128th in Havoc allowed.
Florida has allowed 23 tackles for loss this season, one of the 10 worst marks in the nation. On top of the offensive line issues, quarterback DJ Lagway posted six turnover-worthy plays and five interceptions against LSU.
Lagway has already met his entire season total of turnover-worthy plays from his freshman year.
Even more head-scratching is the pressure rate, as Lagway was pressured on 33% of dropbacks in 2024 compared to just 23% on 114 passing plays this season.
All six interceptions for the sophomore signal-caller have come against defenses that didn't blitz. In the face of these numbers, PFF ranks Florida as the fourth-best pass-blocking offensive line.
On the other side, defensive coordinator Ron Roberts has fielded a quality 3-3-5 unit that boasts a top-10 rank in Defensive Rush Efficiency and Line Yards. Florida has also faced the offenses of LSU and South Florida while maintaining a top-30 rank in Quality Drives allowed and Finishing Drives allowed.
With a special teams rank inside the top 15, the primary issue for the Gators completely revolved around the quarterback position.
Miami Hurricanes
The transformation of the Hurricanes defense under coordinator Corey Hetherman has produced results.
Edge Rueben Bain Jr. has produced 12 pressures and 11 tackles this season, leading a defense that sits top-25 in Havoc.
Miami has been stingy and excellent against the run after games against talented offenses like Notre Dame and South Florida. The Hurricanes rank top-10 in Rushing Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards, dominating nearly every run concept that has attempted to piece together a quality drive.
If there has been a weakness to this point, the Hurricanes have allowed explosive plays through the air. Notre Dame and USF combined for 10 passes over 15 yards.
Those gaps in coverage created scoring opportunities, where the Hurricanes are a modest 72nd in Finishing Drives allowed.
Florida vs Miami Prediction
Florida head coach Billy Napier confirmed Lagway will still be the starter for the Gators heading into another hostile environment.
Backing the Florida offense all rides on its quarterback resolving footwork and decision-making issues.
It's notable that Lagway's worst outing in 2024 came against LSU, where he committed nearly half of his season-long turnover-worthy plays in a single game.
Action Network's betting power ratings indicate this game should sit at Florida +3.5, but considering the Gators were outgained in yards per play against USF and LSU, there may be a better angle in this game.
The Florida defense struggled against LSU and South Florida's passing offenses, generating the 99th-graded pass rush, per PFF. The Gators are bottom-15 in giving up explosives while in passing downs, an area where quarterback Carson Beck has multiple high-octane weapons.
USF's biggest target share went to slot receivers Christian Neptune and Mudia Reuben. LSU used a similar methodology, targeting the slot combo of Aaron Anderson and Bauer Sharp on 15 passing attempts.
Based on Florida's previous struggles against offensive coordinators using the slot, Miami wide receiver Malachi Toney should be in line for a super-sized game.
Pick: Malachi Toney Over 76.5 Yards or Better · Malachi Toney Anytime TD +200
