The No. 10 Miami Hurricanes take on the No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers for the 2026 College Football Playoff National Championship in Miami Gardens, Florida, on Monday, Jan. 19. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Indiana is favored by 8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -360. Miami, meanwhile, enters as a +8.5 underdog and comes in at +280 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 47.5 total points.
College football has undergone significant changes since the introduction of the 12-team playoff. The first version of the bracket included just four teams, rarely featuring a blowout with general participation from the blue bloods of the sport.
The formula to reach the playoff was simple in that decade. Recruiting 5-stars in high school and the post-pandemic transfer portal ostensibly showed who was a championship contender.
The 12-team playoff was implemented in the 2024 season, but none of the top four seeds advanced in the quarterfinal round. The rules on seeding changed for 2025, as conference champions were no longer automatically slotted in the top four seeds.
The fatigue to the teams with a month off continued, as only one team with a bye to the quarterfinals reached the semifinals. There's no surprise that the team was Indiana, a wrinkle in the blue blood formula that relies on experience, not recruiting stars.
This has been a historic season for the Hoosiers, who enter the championship game at 15-0 with blowout wins over Alabama and Oregon in the playoff by a combined score of 94-25.
Indiana has elevated a once-dead program to a team in the same conversation as 2019 LSU, which put together one of the greatest seasons in the history of the game.
Led by Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza, the Indiana offense consistently stays on schedule to avoid passing downs. A balanced rushing attack behind a veteran offensive line has methodically diced opponents, while the defense finished as the highest-graded unit of all FBS teams in Havoc.
The Hoosiers will travel to South Beach for an opportunity to win the national title against a Miami team playing in its own stadium.
Head coach Mario Cristobal took one of the more interesting paths to the championship game, starting with derision of the playoff committee. Miami was not slated to make the playoff, always sitting two spots behind Notre Dame in the rankings.
The committee was firm in its response not to put the Hurricanes over the Irish unless ranked side by side, a situation that only came about during the final ranking.
In early December, the thought of Miami in the championship game would have been chimerical. But now, Cristobal is a win away from the program's sixth national title and first since 2001.
There has been only one common opponent to the championship teams, as Ohio State lost to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship before losing again to Miami in the Cotton Bowl.
The Hoosiers' in-game stats mirrored those of the Buckeyes, posting nearly identical numbers in yards per play, third-down efficiency and red-zone opportunities.
The Hurricanes had a different path in beating Ohio State, led by a pick-six and over 100 hidden yards thanks to special teams. The Buckeyes averaged more than a yard per play against Miami, ultimately failing to retake the lead after trailing, 14-0, at halftime.
This National Championship preview will look at investments from all angles, including the spread and total. With a breakdown of run concepts and coverage looks from defenses, player props will be spread throughout the preview.
Game flow always dictates an opportunity to live bet, as each team's tendencies for the coin toss and "Middle 8" can help in determining a live number.
Without further ado, let's take a look at my Miami vs. Indiana predictions and college football picks for Monday, January 19.
Miami vs Indiana Prediction
- Miami vs. Indiana Pick: 1H Under 23.5 · Miami 1H +5.5 · Miami & Indiana Player Props
My Indiana vs. Miami best bet is on both teams to go under the first-half total and the Hurricanes to cover the first-half spread. Plus, I also have plenty of player props I'm betting. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Miami vs Indiana Odds
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -360 |
- Miami vs Indiana Spread: Indiana -8.5, Miami+8.5
- Miami vs Indiana Over/Under: 47.5 Points
- Miami vs Indiana Moneyline: Miami +280, Indiana -360
Miami vs Indiana National Championship Betting Preview
Miami Hurricanes Betting Preview: Can Canes Keep Up?
The Hurricanes have been beaten in net yards per play over the past two playoff games against Ole Miss and Ohio State.
Offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson has called the right plays when it has mattered the most. Over the past two playoff victories, Miami has been stellar on third and fourth downs, converting 21-of-36 attempts.
Workhorse running back Mark Fletcher Jr. has been responsible for improved distances on third downs, as Miami attempted 47 standard downs against Ole Miss to just 16 against Ohio State.
Fletcher has bulldozed the playoff with 387 rushing yards on zone read and gap blocking concepts. Inside zone has been the primary run concept in Dawson’s offense, with Fletcher having the most success from left to right guard.
For opposing defenses to send Miami into passing downs, the key is to plug inside zone with the defensive interior and middle linebacker spots. The Indiana defense has been one of the best nationally in stopping inside zone with a 58% Success Rate.
Indiana's defense by run concept, per SportSource Analytics.
IU's Aiden Fisher moved from weakside linebacker to middle linebacker in Week 12 against Wisconsin. Although Fisher is the third-best run defender for Indiana, his grading has dropped over the past five games, with six of his 15 missed tackles coming in the previous four games.
Luckily for Indiana, it has a stellar defensive interior.
Tyrique Tucker ranks top-25 of all individual FBS players in PFF grading of interior run defenders. Hosea Wheeler and Dominique Ratcliff don't have as many snaps as Tucker, but both slip into the top 75 of the same defensive rush analytics.
Miami quarterback Carson Beck's passing attempts will come against a nickel defense that pivots between a three- and four-man front.
Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti rarely plays man coverage against opponents, but blitz is a heavy part of the Hoosiers' game.
IU comes in as the nation's best Havoc defense thanks to leading the country in tackles for loss while averaging three sacks per game.
The matchup between the Hoosiers' chaos-makers and Hurricanes' offensive line should be one of the better head-up scenarios in the national title game.
Miami boasts the best pass-blocking offensive line in the country. Beck has seen just 83 pressures in 492 dropbacks this season. However, recent competition may provide a bit of smoke in those numbers, as Miami has allowed 23 pressures in the last two games.
The good news for Miami is the lack of mistakes, as Beck has recorded just a single turnover-worthy play with pressure over the past four games.
Indiana ranks 62nd in creating a contested catch, per Sports Info Solutions. Opponents have found some success in generating explosives through the air against the Hoosiers defense, but only against particular spots on the field.
Cornerback D’Angelo Ponds and safeties Devan Boykin and Louis Moore all rank top-25 in PFF coverage, but the soft spot comes at the linebacker position. None of IU's linebackers rank in the top 100 of coverage defenders at the position.
Indiana has had severe issues covering hitch, out and dig routes this season.
The Hurricanes' most-utilized routes include wide receiver screens, hitches, crossing routes and outs. There aren't many dig routes in Miami's playbook, but that particular tendency has generated a high 62% Success Rate when targeted.
Hitches and outs have been even better, as both route concepts have produced an average Success Rate of 75%.
Star wide receiver Malachi Toney should be the biggest benefactor in a Miami offense that's sure to target the shallow middle of the field with the use of hitches and dig routes.
Malachi Toney receiving depth, per PFF.
Toney has a projected target of 71 yards in the game based on his full-season numbers with a small boost from playoff box scores. That projection shows value on his current market number of over 62.5 receiving yards against Indiana.
Toney should be the player to take advantage of a lackluster linebacker group in coverage that includes Fisher, Rolijah Hardy and Isaiah Jones.
Indiana Hoosiers Betting Preview: Looking to Make History
No offense has produced as many eye-popping statistics as Indiana since the Joe Burrow-led LSU Tigers in 2019. In 15 games, the Hoosiers have put up 50 points seven times, most recently against Oregon in the national semifinal.
Only Ohio State, Penn State and Iowa finished a game within a possession of Curt Cignetti’s team.
Those three teams had two common elements in keeping games close: owning the time of possession and limiting Indiana's success on the ground.
Running backs Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black have been a nightmare for opposing defenses. Indiana has high success in all rush concepts but has a heavy tendency toward inside zone and man blocking assignments.
Hemby has a higher ratio of attempts using inside zone, while Black has a more even split when the offensive line has man blocking assignments.
While Hemby leads the team in yards after contact and missed tackles forced, Black paces the team in rushing touchdowns after posting three against Oregon and Alabama in the playoff.
Hemby and Black are expected to find success against a Miami defense that was torched by Ole Miss in the A gaps between the guards. An injury to Miami nose tackle Ahmad Moten Sr. created a tough path for defensive tackles Justin Scott and Armondo Blount.
Miami enters the game 88th in rush explosives allowed, so Hemby and Black should create chunk plays in standard downs.
Black has been on fire in the gap between center Pat Coogan and right guard Bray Lynch, averaging 8.7 yards per carry on 31 attempts this season.
Kaelon Black rushing direction, per PFF.
Both Black and Hemby are projected to go slightly over their rushing yards props, but with Black projected to score 70% of the time, an anytime touchdown prop is in order.
The portfolio for the national title will include both players, with Hemby over his rushing props up to 66 yards and Black -125 for an anytime touchdown.
In the rare event Indiana finds itself in passing downs, quarterback Fernando Mendoza will face a Miami nickel defense that ranks top-20 in coverage grading.
Canes defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman has an aggressive blitz-heavy defense that finished top-10 in Havoc this season.
The two biggest drivers of quarterback pressure come in edge rushers Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor.
Bain has produced just one sack in the past two games against the blindside tackles of Ohio State and Ole Miss. Mesidor, meanwhile, has been a one-man Havoc crew, generating 19 pressures and three sacks in three playoff wins.
Bain and Mesidor will face an Indiana offensive line that's top-20 in pass blocking, per PFF. Blindside tackle Carter Smith hasn't allowed a sack all season, giving up just single pressure over the past five games.
Kahlil Benson wasn't as successful against Oregon, allowing four pressures and a sack to the Ducks.
When defensive props are released, expect Bain to struggle to record a sack and a healthy Mesidor to get to Mendoza.
There's not a single coverage concept that Mendoza hasn't produced a high level of success against. Hetherman has used man coverage on 20% of opponent passing snaps while utilizing a heavy amount of Cover 3 in zone.
Despite winning the Heisman, pressure has forced Mendoza into mistakes with a 3.8% turnover-worthy play rate in 121 dropbacks this season.
Nearly half of the junior's turnover-worthy plays have come in recent games against Purdue, Alabama and Oregon.
Mendoza has a 40% chance to throw an interception in this game, giving value to any number at +150 or better on Miami to pick off the Heisman winner.
National Championship Coin Toss
Both Miami and Indiana elected to defer in every coin-toss win this season. Head coaches and coin-toss tendencies are crucial in determining which side to lean in terms of first touchdown props.
One of these offenses has been much more productive than the other, as Indiana ranks ninth in first-quarter scoring this season.
The Hoosiers average 9.3 points in the first quarter this season, but the Hurricanes have struggled offensively in the scripted portion of the game. Miami averages 5.3 points in the first quarter, easily the lowest of any quarter for the Hurricanes offense.
There's a clear leader in terms of who deserves a wager for Indiana's first touchdown props.
Two different offensive players have accounted for multiple first touchdown scores this season. Indiana has seen wide receiver Charlie Becker score the first six points in games against Alabama and Wisconsin. Mendoza has scored the initial Indiana touchdown in three different games against Penn State, Maryland and Indiana State.
The biggest first touchdown scoring unit for Indiana comes on defense and special teams. In four games against Oregon, UCLA, Illinois and Old Dominion, the Hoosiers have recorded special teams scores or pick-sixes from the defense.
Indiana D/ST first touchdown at +2800 is in the portfolio, and multiple touchdowns by units other than the offense can be found at 60-1 or greater.
Miami also has a first touchdown from its D/ST this season against NC State, but the leading player in first score for the Hurricanes this season has been CJ Daniels. The sixth-year senior has seven receiving touchdowns this season, with three being the first of the game against Stanford, Florida State and Bethune-Cookman.
Although Fletcher and CharMar Brown have each been responsible for two initial scores, Daniels will be in the portfolio at +275 or better for an anytime touchdown.
Indiana ranks as the top team in the "Middle 8," defined as the last four minutes of the second quarter and the first four minutes of the third quarter.
Cignetti’s team has averaged a scoring differential of +5.3 at the end of the second quarter and just +1.2 at the beginning of the third quarter.
If there's a live bet opportunity that exists for Indiana, it could be with a few minutes left before a final possession in the second quarter.
Miami has a similar difference in second- and third-quarter scoring differential for the Middle 8. The Hurricanes own a differential of +4.6 to end the second quarter but sit at -1.1 points to start the third quarter.
While Miami ranks 15th overall in Middle 8 scoring differential, the beginning of the second half has not been friendly to Cristobal’s team.
Considering both teams have defensive scores this season, a small wager is needed on D/ST — much like covering the zeroes on a roulette wheel.
Miami vs Indiana Special Teams
Both Miami and Indiana are close in special teams rankings, per SP+, as both national title teams sit just outside the top 20.
The ability to identify hidden yards through special teams could help predict the battles of field position and available yardage when it comes to reaching scoring position.
The Hurricanes may have the advantage in punting, as Dylan Joyce leads a top-20 punt efficiency unit. The third-year Hurricane has pinpointed 24-of-49 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line.
A large discrepancy also falls in Miami’s favor in terms of kickoff returns. The Hoosiers sit 112th in kickoff efficiency, per SportSource Analytics, as opponents have taken a fair catch on 4-of-116 kickoffs this season. Indiana ranks outside the top 75 of all FBS teams in average field position for returned kicks.
Miami should start with better field position for offensive drives thanks to the Hoosiers' poor kickoff coverage. In fact, Indiana keeps only 12% of opponent returns from reaching the 25.
Field-goal kicking, however, will fall on the side of Indiana thanks to the leg of Nico Radicic.
The junior has connected on all 84 PAT attempts and 16-of-17 field goals. The lone miss for Radicic came in the 30-39 yard range, as he hasn't had an attempt beyond 50 yards this season.
Miami kicker Carter Davis has also connected on all of his PAT attempts, but he has struggled from long distances. The senior’s numbers fall off from 40 yards and beyond, connecting on just 7-of-12 field goals from that range.
However, his lone 50-plus yard attempt at Hard Rock Stadium split the uprights against Florida in Week 4.
Miami and Indiana combine for an average of 2.3 field goals a game. Although the Hoosiers have one of the lowest numbers of attempts on the season, Radicic has connected on 3-of-4 attempts in recent games against Ohio State and Alabama.
Davis, meanwhile, has kicked a field goal in eight consecutive games, while also knocking through at least two in six different contests this season.
The market lists total first-half field goals over 1.5 at plus-money, with recent history indicating value on the prop. Indiana has kicked at least one first-half field goal in five of its previous seven games.
As for Miami, there's value on its first score being a field goal at +160. The Hurricanes have started their scoring with Davis' leg in four of their previous six games.
National Championship Officiating Crew
The referee assignment falls upon Michael VanderVelde of the Big 12, an official in the league since 2020.
This will not be the first showcase game of his career, as he officiated the 2023 and 2024 Rose Bowls and the XFL Championship in 2023.
VanderVelde’s officiating history started in the Southland Conference before moving on to the Mountain West.
Michael VanderVelde's penalty breakdown, per SportsSource Analytics.
Through 13 games this season, VanderVelde has called a near-FBS average of 12.5 penalties per game.
The veteran official has a much higher tendency to call offensive flags over defensive penalties, with false starts and holding accounting for 34% of all penalties.
However, defensive pass interference is called at a higher rate than the NCAA average during VanderVelde’s games, with an average of 1.54 per contest.
Both national title teams have been excellent at avoiding defensive pass interference, with Miami sitting in the top 35 and Indiana in the top 15 in the fewest number of flags for pass interference.
Where VanderVelde could become a predictable factor is on false starts. That's VanderVelde's most-called penalty, coming in at 20%. VanderVelde has a season average of 2.5 false start penalties per game.
Indiana and Miami have higher averages than most FBS teams at 1.6 and 1.3 false start penalties per game, respectively.
If prop markets were to ever have wagers on the first penalty called, false start would be leading the race.
National Championship Host Stadium
Hard Rock Stadium is the home of the Miami Hurricanes and the Miami Dolphins. Cristobal looks to lead the first team to ever win a national title in their home venue.
The Hurricanes will move from their locker room to that of the Dolphins for the 2026 National Championship game. There are plenty of data points thanks to both professional and college football played in the stadium since it opened in 1987.
Hard Rock Stadium uses Tifway 419 Bermuda grass for its high traffic tolerance and quick recovery while meeting all FIFA requirements for natural grass.
The NFL ranks Hard Rock Stadium as one of the five windiest venues in the league, with an average of 11 MPH. Winds for the national title game are projected to be lower than the NFL average.
Historically, Hard Rock Stadium has been an under paradise in terms of the total.
According to Bet Labs, NFL games in the windiest months of November, December and January fetch a record of 58-47-1 to the under since 2005. In that same time frame, college football totals in Hard Rock Stadium have fallen to 86-68-2 to the under.
With 20 years of data for the NFL and college football, the under has cashed at a 56% clip.
Miami and Indiana have been two of the fiercest defenses in the first half this season. Both programs rank top-five of all scoring defenses in the first two quarters of play.
Indiana has allowed 6.2 points to Miami’s 4.7 points in the first half of play.
The Hurricanes have been one of the slower starters in FBS, ranking 84th in first-quarter scoring. Miami has scored a total of three points in the first quarter in playoff games against Ole Miss, Ohio State and Texas A&M.
The under has been the early play in the betting market, moving the total from 48.5 to 47.
The best bet regarding the total is on the first-half under 23.5, backing two defenses that are top-five in points allowed, along with an often sluggish start for the Canes offense.
Miami vs Indiana Pick, Betting Analysis
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings have been consistently catching up to Indiana, similar to LSU in 2019.
Cignetti has pummeled opponents on the biggest stages, with nearly half of the games seeing the Hoosiers put a 50-burger on the scoreboard.
The true spread on a neutral field between the two title contenders falls to Indiana -7, up to -11 for a model that boosts recent performance. The current number in the market is floating in a neutral zone, as Miami +10 would draw Hurricanes money in a similar fashion to Indiana -7.
Considering the number of NFL parlays that will be attached to the Hoosiers' moneyline, an educated guess is that the sportsbooks will need Miami for a financial victory.
These are two of the slowest offenses in college football, each averaging about 30.1 seconds per play. Scoring is expected to be low in the first half, as both offenses use a heavy mix of inside zone runs to create methodical drives.
There are reasons to believe Miami’s best will come in the first half. The Hurricanes will step onto their home field with a top-10 rank in first-half scoring differential.
A first-half wager on the Hurricanes will eliminate a potential scenario of a gassed defense in the second half. Miami has ranked as one of the worst teams nationally in PFF tackle grading and Sports Info Solutions' broken tackles allowed.
The Hurricanes have been solid in the first half, covering six straight with a 10-4 record against the spread this season. There are a number of shops that have moved into Miami first-half +5.5 territory.
The first-half under 23.5 is also in play for a slow-starting game. Considering the Hoosiers defense has been responsible for four first scores this season, Indiana's defense and special teams to score the first touchdown at 35-1 starts off the prop portfolio.
Miami has started its scoring with a field goal in four of its past six games, so there's also value on Miami's first scoring play to be a field goal at +160.
Both Hemby and Black will have success behind Indiana's offensive line when it comes to creating quality drives.
With potential injury and ineffectiveness from Miami's defensive interior, inside zone plays should cash Hemby over 56.5 rushing yards, while a Black anytime touchdown at -110 will be added to the prop list.
Mendoza, meanwhile, has one of the higher turnover-worthy play rates for a quarterback that's considered the best in the country. With a 40% chance Mendoza throws an pick, there's value on over 0.5 interceptions at +150 or better.
Miami's defense will get pressure, specifically with Mesidor taking on the right side of Indiana's offensive line. Any Mesidor sack over prop is worth an investment. At the same time, the under sack prop will be needed for Bain against Smith.
The Canes offense will need to attack the Hoosiers with Beck's arm after Fletcher is stonewalled at the line of scrimmage.
Passing targets over the middle will be the bread and butter of Miami's offense, targeting inefficient linebackers in pass coverage through hitch and dig routes.
A prop on Toney over 59.5 receiving yards will be added, with the freshman serving as the primary target over the middle for Beck.
The Georgia transfer quarterback has a favorite target in the end zone, as three of CJ Daniels' seven touchdowns have been the first of the game. The former Liberty and LSU target frequently works over the middle from the wideout position, so we'll also add a Daniels anytime touchdown at +275.
Another target that frequents the middle for Miami is wide receiver Joshisa Trader, as 16 of his 23 targets have come between the hashmarks this season.
His receiving yards prop is low enough that we simply need the Hurricanes' pass-catcher to receive a target. Trader over 2.5 receiving yards will be added to the card after receiving a target in eight straight games and recording a catch in seven of those contests.
Miami vs Indiana Best Bets, Picks
- 1H Under 23.5
- Miami 1H +5.5
- 1H Field Goals Over +1.5 (+124)
- Miami's First Score: Field Goal (+160)
- Indiana D/ST First TD (+3500)
- CJ Daniels Anytime TD (+275)
- Malachi Toney Over 59.5 Receiving Yards
- Joshisa Trader Over 2.5 Receiving Yards
- Roman Hemby Over 56.5 Rushing Yards
- Kaelon Black Anytime Touchdown (-110)
- Rueben Bain Jr. Under Sacks
- Akheem Mesidor Over Sacks
- Fernando Mendoza Over 0.5 Interceptions (+150)
