After 5 long months, we've reached the end of the road.
The Indiana Hoosiers and Miami Hurricanes and will play in the 2026 CFP National Championship game.
That means it's the last time to bet on college football until late August.
But our staff is ready to make the most of it, with 7 best bets for the National Championship game, including a side in each half, a team rushing prop and 4 player props.
Read on for our Indiana vs Miami best bets and National Championship picks for Monday, Jan. 19.
Indiana vs Miami Best Bets, Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Monday's national title game between Indiana and Miami. Click on the team logos for any of the bets below to navigate to a specific pick discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Indiana vs Miami First-Half Pick
By RoadToCFB
The Indiana Hoosiers' formula this year: shock and awe.
Thanks to a handful of Oregon turnovers, Indiana jumped out to a 35-7 halftime lead and never surrendered.
The game before, it was a 17-0 halftime jump. That Rose Bowl halftime lead came off the back of just one turnover, versus three in the Fiesta Bowl.
Projecting more than one turnover in a half is a fool’s errand, but there’s proof in the pudding for the Hoosiers dominating halves without the gift of turnovers.
With just one full 12-team Playoff to compare to, I’m looking to take advantage of a trend I think will stick around: the hot hand.
Last year, Ohio State dropped its season finale before racing through the CFP bracket with a +70 point differential.
While Indiana ended its season with a Big Ten Championship win, it was in a 13-10 rock fight. Since then, it’s been a +69 point differential.
Ferocious as the Miami defense has been, it is prone to explosive runs. We saw that out of the gate last game against Ole Miss, where the Hurricanes allowed a 73-yard Kewan Lacy touchdown on the first play of the second quarter.
Indiana has 33 rushes of 20-plus yards this season, third-most among FBS teams.
The focus for Curt Cignetti & Co. will be getting off to a fast start as the ‘Canes play a “home” championship game. Indiana representation should still be strong, but playing this in the friendly confines of Miami Gardens is an advantage for the ‘Canes.
Each of the last six champions was favored in the title game and covered the spread.
With this number above a touchdown, I’m looking for a fast start from Indiana. Specifically, I’m backing the No. 1 team riding a dominant hot streak over the underdog who came away with three tight wins.
Pick: Indiana 1H -4.5 (Play to -6.5)
Indiana vs Miami Second-Half Pick
It wouldn’t shock me if Miami starts strong on Monday, playing with house money on its home field.
But as the game progresses, I expect Indiana, which I view as the superior team, to start to impose its will on the Canes.
I also trust Curt Cignetti and staff far more than Mario Cristobal and company when it comes to halftime adjustments.
Indiana has been a fantastic second-half team throughout Cig’s tenure, and I don’t expect that to change in the National Championship game.
Furthermore, the Hoosiers rarely let up when they do have a lead, so even if they do grab control early on in this one, I see no reason why they wouldn’t continue to add to their cushion in the second half.
The Indiana defense is fundamentally sound at all levels and will force Carson Beck and the Miami offense into some critical mistakes.
On the other side of the ball, Mendoza and the Hoosier offense haven’t been stopped by anybody, and Ole Miss showed that you can move the ball through the air on the Canes.
Give me Indiana on the second-half line, as I expect the Hoosiers to put one final exclamation point on a historic season in Hard Rock Stadium.
Pick: Indiana 2H -3.5 (Play to -4)
Indiana vs Miami Team Prop Pick
By Alex Hinton
By now, you have likely heard some variation of “Miami’s path to an upset is by dominating in the trenches.”
I’m targeting the Miami offensive line, which features five dudes with a 6-foot-6 average height and a 325-pound average weight. Led by tackles Markel Bell and Francis Mauigoa, Miami has averaged 154.6 rushing yards per game, rushing for at least 105 yards in 12 of 15 games.
Miami ranks 27th nationally in Rushing Success Rate and ninth in Havoc allowed.
The usual beneficiary has been junior running back Mark Fletcher Jr., who has run for 1,080 yards on 5.4 yards per carry. Fletcher has upped his game in the CFP, going for 90 rushing yards in all three of Miami’s playoff games while averaging 131.6 per game.
While Fletcher will lead the way, CharMar Brown will also see work along with Malachi Toney in the ‘Malicat” formation. Miami is averaging 173 rushing yards per game in the CFP.
Indiana is allowing just 75 rushing yards per game, but Miami has already faced a top-10 rushing defense in Ohio State, along with Texas A&M, which finished 40th. Meanwhile, Indiana faced an Alabama team whose run game had been nonexistent for months, and Oregon, which finished with 93 rushing yards after Dante Moore lost 28 yards on three sacks.
Additionally, Indiana dominated both games from the start, which forced Alabama and Oregon into pass-heavy game scripts.
I believe Miami hangs around and possibly pulls the upset. If so, it will be because of its run game and dominant offensive line.
Pick: Miami TT Over 103.5 Rush Yards (-114 · FanDuel)
Indiana vs Miami Player Prop Pick
By RoadToCFB
I’m expecting a positive game script with Indiana laying over a touchdown. And when the Hoosiers take a lead, they lean into the run game. Additionally, the best way to neutralize an aggressive pass rush is to run the ball effectively.
The Hoosiers’ offensive line wasn’t bulletproof against top pass rushes like Ohio State and Penn State. In those two games, Fernando Mendoza was pressured 31 times and took six combined sacks.
But in the Big Ten Championship Game, Indiana leaned on the run (29 rushes by running backs versus 23 passing attempts) while nursing a lead.
Miami defensive tackle Ahmad Moten Sr. left the Fiesta Bowl with what appeared to be an aggravation of an injury that put his status for the semifinal in doubt. He did not return. Moten logged 16 run stops so far this year, and an absence would be a huge loss in the run game.
Kaelon Black has seen nearly an equal snap count to Roman Hemby this postseason (48 to 57) and took a carry on 90% of those snaps. Khobie Martin is typically the passing downs back, taking a carry on just under 50% of his snaps in the CFP.
Black has 12-plus carries in each of his last four games, including all three postseason, and in six of his past seven. The exception was against Wisconsin, when Black left the game early.
Black is also lined for four fewer carries than Hemby (O/U 15.5), but the splits have been closer than that through the postseason.
There’ll likely be close to 30 carries to go around this game, and Black should see at least 12.
Pick: Kaelon Black Over 11.5 Rush Attempts (-105 · bet365)
Indiana vs Miami Player Prop Best Bet
Waffle House. Always Open.
That’s the nickname that Elijah Sarratt has earned.
Omar Cooper Jr. and Charlie Becker have had fantastic seasons, but there’s nobody Fernando Mendoza trusts more in big moments than Sarratt.
He can beat man coverage regularly, and he also knows how to find the open spots on the field when going up against zone.
The senior has gone for 60-plus yards in six of the eleven games he’s been healthy this season. In the five he wasn't, it was due to limited second-half playing time with Indiana holding big leads.
Miami’s physical front four will force the Hoosiers into plenty of passing situations, which will lend itself to Mendoza looking Sarratt’s way on key third downs.
He’s also very effective in the red zone, having caught 15 touchdown passes this season, and should be in line to add to that total in this one.
Ultimately, Waffle House is a gamer, and I expect a big night from him on the biggest stage college football has to offer.
I would not be shocked if he goes for 100, so I will gladly back him to get to 60 at essentially even money.
Pick: Elijah Sarratt 60+ Receiving Yards (-102 · DraftKings)
Indiana vs Miami Player Prop Prediction
By Greg Liodice
Malachi Toney is electric, and Miami has parlayed that electricity into an appearance in the National Championship game.
But allow me to be skeptical.
Toney, despite his talent, is becoming vulnerable.
The tougher the competition has gotten, the harder it has been for Toney to generate separation. Opposing teams in these playoffs have zeroed in on Toney, essentially taking him out of the game.
Throughout the playoffs, Toney has registered five receptions in each game, only averaging 7.9 yards per catch.
Ole Miss let up a 36-yard touchdown to Toney on a screen pass in the semifinals, which may be the only real way Toney gets to make a difference.
But Indiana’s defense has been stifling in these playoffs, and it forces quarterbacks to dig deep into their cupboards.
For one, Indiana is among the FBS leaders in sacks per game, averaging 3.7. Linebackers Rolijah Hardy and Isaiah Jones have combined for 15 sacks all season.
Additionally, the Hoosiers average 1.3 interceptions per game, the most of any team in the College Football Playoffs.
Also, defensive back Louis Moore led the Big Ten in interceptions with six, while D’Angelo Ponds and Amare Ferrell also combined for six picks.
Given all those factors, I don’t foresee Toney making a major impact on this game. I think Indiana will be glued to him, mostly putting two defenders on him at all times, forcing Carson Beck to look toward Keelan Marion or CJ Daniels.
Pick: Malachi Toney Under 5.5 Receptions (+105 · bet365)
Indiana vs Miami Anytime Touchdown Pick
By Greg Liodice
All the hype for Indiana has rightfully gone to Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza.
But it seems like the run game goes unnoticed.
Running backs Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black have been driving forces to this offense, with Hemby totaling over 1,000 rushing yards and Black at 970.
They’re both legitimate options to score from the ground, but I’m leaning on Hemby here for the sole fact that he gets the majority of the carries. He’s also a complete bulldozer in the red zone.
Miami has done a fantastic job at stopping the run throughout the season and has been lethal in the red zone.
But Indiana has been much better. The Hoosiers ranked sixth nationally in red-zone scores per game and first in the Big Ten in red zone scoring attempts.
And if you need more convincing, when in the red zone on a road or neutral field, Indiana has scored on 31 of 32 attempts.
That tells me that there will be plenty of attempts for Hemby to find the end zone.
Since the Hoosiers have an abundance of options to choose from, you can really go with anyone here.
But I like Hemby’s game, and for a game with big stakes, I believe that Curt Cignetti is going to opt for his bruiser to push the score.
Pick: Roman Hemby Anytime TD (+105 · bet365)
