The 6-0 49ers are “only” 2.5-point favorites here, so there’s at least a chance they end up in a rarer trailing game script than we’ve seen so far. Either way, I’m expecting San Francisco’s overall rushing volume to come down a bit, and with the WR room so banged up now that Mike Evans is out, I could see more snaps with CMC and Black on the field together, with McCaffrey flexed out into the slot/at WR and Black handling the backfield work. Using CMC more as a pass catcher and extension of the run game makes a lot of sense here instead of just banging him 16+ times on the ground. Black can take some of that early down work, keep CMC a little fresher and still let them manufacture touches for him through the air. The 49ers also use Purdy on QB sneaks in short yardage spots, which takes away another path to extra carries. I have CMC closer to 14.5 rushing attempts, with around a 61% chance to stay under 15.5.

Brandon’s playground pod Week 6

Brandon’s playground pod Week 6