Let's close off Week 10 with a bang.
I'm targeting two games for Saturday night's slate, including a monster SEC battle with CFP implications, and an under-the-radar ACC matchup.
Read on for my Week 10 college football picks and Saturday night predictions.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | Oklahoma +3 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Florida State -9 |
Oklahoma +3 at Tennessee
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
Ahead of this matchup, I said I wanted Oklahoma at +3 or better.
Even with the recent losses, I still have the Sooners power-rated a couple of points better than Tennessee.
Now, I admittedly may be off there, as it's undoubtedly difficult to adjust Oklahoma due to the injury to quarterback John Mateer, who clearly shouldn't have been out on the field against Texas.
He should be close to full strength for this matchup and will have ample opportunities to attack an extremely suspect Tennessee defense that has masked a lot of warts with a nation-leading five defensive touchdowns.
Oklahoma has recently found some semblance of a rushing attack and tweaked its offensive line (for the better) last week.
I expect it to succeed in moving the ball against a porous Tennessee secondary that really misses star corners Rickey Gibson III and Jermod McCoy. The Vols will really be in trouble if cornerback Colton Hood also can't suit up after getting dinged up last week.
And when Oklahoma does move it, you can expect the Sooners to continue finishing drives off with touchdowns, which has been an area of strength for Ben Arbuckle's offense. On the season, Tennessee's defense ranks 123rd in red-zone scoring rate. The Vols have allowed 24 touchdowns on 29 trips (82.8%).
Meanwhile, Oklahoma has allowed only six touchdowns on 16 trips for the entire season. That's the unit I believe will decide this game.
The Tennessee offense is undoubtedly a force to be reckoned with under transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar, who has thrived with the deep ball all season, especially last week in Lexington. However, this will be his toughest test (by far) against an Oklahoma defense I have rated as one of the top-three units in the country.
While Aguilar has been fantastic to date, he hasn't really faced a defense of this caliber that can generate pressure at an elite level. And when Aguilar is pressured, that's where the mistakes have come in the past.
Just take a look at the defenses Aguilar has faced and their respective sack rate rankings:
- Syracuse, 92nd
- Georgia, 130th
- UAB, 82nd
- Mississippi State, 74th
- Arkansas, 79th
- Alabama, 45th
- Kentucky, 85th
Per my numbers, he has faced only two top-50 defenses — Georgia and Alabama — both of which I think are a bit overrated on that side of the ball.
However, in those two matchups, he has a 1:4 Big-Time Throw to Turnover-Worthy Play ratio and a 5:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
In all other FBS matchups, he has a 12:1 BTT-to-TWP ratio and an 11:3 TD-to-INT ratio.
More importantly, Alabama is the only defense he has faced that ranks in the top 50 in Sack Rate, and the Tide are 45th in that department. Among all of the FBS teams he has faced, the average sack ranking of Tennessee's opponents is 85th.
Well, Oklahoma ranks No. 1 in the country in both Sack Rate and Havoc. This is a significant step up in class for the App State transfer.
And while Oklahoma's defense didn't perform up to par last week against Ole Miss, I do think the conditions really played a part, as did the legs of Trinidad Chambliss. While Aguilar has some underrated mobility, he's undoubtedly not Chambliss when it comes to extending plays.
Neyland Stadium is no joke at night, and this certainly won't be easy, but I'm happy to take the three points with the Sooners' defense in a College Football Playoff elimination game that should come down to the wire.
Pick: Oklahoma +3 or Better
Florida State -9 vs. Wake Forest
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ACC Network
Last week, I said that Wake Forest might have the most underrated defense in college football.
The Deacs certainly looked the part in holding SMU to 12 points. Following that victory, they now rank among the top 10 nationally when adjusted for opponent.
Do I think they're a top-10 defense? Absolutely not. But this is a feisty bunch.
However, this is a very tough spot for the Demon Deacons following that upset win against a Florida State team coming off a bye following four straight losses.
As long as the Noles don't quit on the season and Tommy Castellanos suits up at quarterback (trending to play, per Mike Norvell), I like them at anything under 10.
Not only has Florida State played the much more difficult schedule, but it's also been snakebit in several close losses.
The Noles still boast a very sturdy run defense that has held opponents to 3.3 yards per rush, which should completely neuter this weak Wake Forest offense that has used two quarterbacks in recent weeks.
The Deacs need to get running back Demond Claiborne going on the ground to have any shot at sustaining drives, but I'm not sure they'll have success doing so in this matchup.
The Demon Deacons are also one of the worst teams in the country in the red zone when they actually get down inside the 20. For the season, Wake's 72% red-zone scoring percentage ranks 129th in FBS. It has scored only nine touchdowns on 25 trips inside the 20 (36%); only Nevada and UMass have a lower touchdown rate.
Additionally, FSU will get starting cornerback Ja'Bril Rawls back from injury, which will have a ripple effect on the rest of a struggling secondary that Wake isn't really built to exploit, regardless.
Ultimately, I believe Florida State has the perfect offensive scheme to attack this Wake Forest defense. And if Florida State gets a lead, there's really not a lot of recourse for this Wake Forest offense to play from behind, while the Seminoles can stick with the ground game, limiting the heavy pressure Wake can generate when it knows teams have to pass.
Despite the more challenging schedule, Florida State still has an enormous edge in Net Success Rate, available yards gained percentage, and quality drive ratio.
Assuming FSU still cares, this is a prime spot to buy the dip on the Noles, while selling high on Wake.
Pick: Florida State -9.5 or Better
