NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Avalanche vs Canucks (Wednesday, March 13)
Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Elias Lindholm #23 of the Vancouver Canucks feces off against Ross Colton #20
Avalanche vs. Canucks Odds
| Avalanche Odds | -105 |
| Canucks Odds | -115 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -115o / -105u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Colorado Avalanche vs. Vancouver Canucks on Wednesday, March 13 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Vancouver and Colorado are pretty even on paper, but the Avalanche have claimed the first two contests against the Canucks in 2023-24.
We'll examine the likelihood of Colorado sweeping the season series while previewing the upcoming contest and offering an Avalanche vs. Canucks prediction.
For a team with a 41-20-5 record, the Avalanche have some noteworthy areas of concern.
Alexandar Georgiev has posted an unappealing 2.85 GAA and .901 save percentage through 52 starts, but Justus Annunen is lacking in NHL experience, so Colorado continues to lean heavily on Georgiev. To be fair to the veteran netminder, though, he's not the problem.
The Avalanche have a 3.22 xGA/60, which translates to them ranking 24th defensively. In other words, Georgiev hasn't been good enough to completely compensate for the errors of the skaters in front of him, but he's been serviceable enough to keep the house of cards from collapsing.
The Avalanche's forward depth has been mediocre too. The average team has 3.5 forwards with at least 40 points and 4.6 with a minimum of 15 markers while Colorado has three who have reached the marks in an Avs jersey. However, while Georgiev hasn't been good enough to completely mask the Avalanche's defensive shortcomings, Colorado's top forwards have more than made up for the team's lukewarm secondary scoring.
Colorado leads the league with 3.71 goals per game, thanks in large part to Nathan MacKinnon, who is having one of the best offensive campaigns of the salary cap era with 41 goals and 113 points through 66 contests. There's also Mikko Rantanen, who has provided 33 markers and 88 points of his own.
The Avalanche also have one of the league's top offensive defensemen in Cale Makar (17 goals, 71 points), and Valeri Nichushkin (personal) returned Friday to round out the top line. Although Nichushkin has logged just 42 games this season, he's the third forward who has reached the 15-goal and 40-point milestones in an Avalanche jersey, providing 24 and 46, respectively.
The jersey qualification is important because Colorado did attempt to address those secondary scoring issues before the trade deadline. It cost them a promising young defenseman in Bowen Byram, but the Avalanche added Casey Mittelstadt from Buffalo. With 15 goals and 48 points in 64 contests, the 25-year-old should provide Colorado with a legitimate threat outside of their top line.
Vancouver doesn't have a player performing at MacKinnon's level, but the Canucks are still one of the few teams that can compete with the Avalanche offensively, ranking third with 3.55 goals per game.
The Canucks tend to utilize a bit more of a balanced attack. While you'll almost always see Rantanen and MacKinnon deployed together, at even strength, Vancouver will often use Elias Pettersson (32 goals, 79 points) on a different line than J.T. Miller (32 goals, 85 points) and Brock Boeser (35 goals, 64 points). They will also sometimes use Elias Lindholm (13 goals, 39 points) to spread out their talent further.
The end result is largely the same with both teams seeing substantial success in their opponent's zone, but one area where Vancouver has stood above Colorado is defense and goaltending. The Canucks rank eighth with an xGA/60 of 2.89, and Thatcher Demko has taken full advantage of that help to post a 34-13-2 record, 2.47 GAA and .917 save percentage across 49 contests.
Suppose tonight's matchup were Demko vs. Georgiev. In that case, I'd likely be inclined to give Vancouver the edge based on the logic that the Canucks' substantial edges in defense and goaltending should exceed the Avalanche's mild advantage in offense. However, that's not tonight's matchup.
Demko is unavailable due to a knee injury, making Casey DeSmith, who has a far less appealing 2.85 GAA and .898 save percentage in 19 appearances, Vancouver's likely starter. Under those circumstances, Vancouver's would-be advantage in net has vanished.
The Canucks still have a couple of edges, though. Vancouver has a 21-6-3 record at home while the Avalanche are a middling 15-14-5 on the road, so tonight's venue might be important. The Avalanche are also in the second half of a back-to-back, and while Colorado did save Georgiev for tonight's action, Colorado is just 3-2-0 on no rest this campaign, so fatigue might be an issue.
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Avalanche vs. Canucks
Betting Pick & Prediction
Oddsmakers aren't treating either team like a real favorite tonight, and that's fair given how little separates these teams.
I'd be tempted to pick Vancouver due to the home-ice advantage and Colorado's lack of rest, but the absence of Demko is ultimately too big of a detriment for me to overlook.
Instead, I'd rather take the Over 6.5 goals. These are two of the top three offensive teams in the league, and the best goaltender on either squad is unavailable, which will likely make this a high-scoring affair.
Pick: Over 6.5 goals (-115 at FanDuel) | Play to -130
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