NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Canucks vs Kings (Saturday, April 6)
Jeff Vinnick/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Dakota Joshua #81 and Conor Garland #8 of the Vancouver Canucks
Canucks vs. Kings Odds
| Canucks Odds | +102 |
| Kings Odds | -122 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -110o / -110u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Vancouver Canucks vs. Los Angeles Kings on Saturday, April 6 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Two of the best the Western Conference has to offer will battle it out in SoCal on Saturday night, looking to reinforce their respective positions in the standings.
Both the Los Angeles Kings and Vancouver Canucks have faltered somewhat lately, albeit with LA suffering a more profound impact. The Kings have been relegated to the second wild-card berth, setting up a potential clash with the top seed in the first round of the playoffs. As such, they are clamoring for much-needed points and a boost up the standings.
Although the Canucks have barely been scraping by, they still have a five-point cushion atop the Pacific Division standings. But they can't afford to let a goaltending injury derail what has been an otherwise wildly successful campaign.
As the betting line implies, this Pacific Division showdown will be a tightly contested affair, with the Kings and Canucks looking to improve their standing ahead of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. However, our analysis supports there's a decisive side to back on Saturday night.
Here's our Canucks vs. Kings pick tonight.
An injury to primary netminder Thatcher Demko has resulted in a curious shift in the Canucks' analytics. Despite improving their play with Casey DeSmith between the pipes, the Nucks have had an eroding points percentage. With inconsistent efforts plaguing its recent results, Vancouver needs to find a way to break out of its recent slump.
Since DeSmith took over, the Canucks have seen a boost in their underlying metrics. Their expected goals-for percentage jumped from 51.8% pre-Demko injury to 52.3% since DeSmith stepped in.
Despite the improved play, Vancouver's points percentage has actually taken a hit. Their benchmark has dipped from .689 to .550 over the past month. That discrepancy points toward Canucks' progression, as their points percentage works back up toward normal range to reflect their on-ice excellence.
Moreover, we've seen an assertive Canucks squad deliver top-end performances in both ends of the ice. Vancouver has exceeded 10 high-danger chances in six of their last seven, averaging 10.3 opportunities per game. Improved offensive production has been matched by responsible defensive play. The Nucks have held all but one of their last eight opponents to nine or fewer quality chances, or 6.8 chances per game.
It might not seem like it, but Vancouver has stepped up its play since Demko went down with the lower-body injury. They can use the final two weeks to validate their position as progression candidates before the postseason.
It's easy to point to the Kings' recent outcomes and arrive at the conclusion that they are playing good hockey. They've gone 6-3-0 over their past nine, asserting themselves as a contender. Still, their analytics reveal a more telling picture that could result in LA losing even more ground in the playoff race.
For the first time since March 17, the Kings have outplayed their opponents in consecutive games. They posted a 72.4% expected goals-for percentage last time out, with a robust 55.2% rating the time before that. However, those metrics appear less glamorous when adjusted for opponent. Their most recent outing came against the AHL-caliber San Jose Sharks and the perpetually underachieving Arizona Coyotes the time before that.
It's tough to give Los Angeles credit for those efforts.
Deferring back to the nine-game sample, the Kings have reached an unsustainable tipping point in their metrics. Their six wins have yielded an actual goals-for rating of 71.9%, substantially ahead of their expected value of 50.0%. Not surprisingly, that imbalance is also reflected in their PDO. The Kings have the most untenable benchmark in the NHL, compiling a 1.074 rating.
Opposite of the Canucks, LA has outlived its metrics and should see regression impacting their outcomes over the coming weeks. That starts with Saturday's Pacific Division tilt versus Vancouver.
Canucks vs. Kings
Betting Pick & Prediction
These teams are headed on opposite analytics paths. On one hand, the Cancuks are deserving of more wins. On the other, Los Angeles can't sustain its current model.
It may seem a little contrarian backing the Canucks, waiting for both teams' metrics to correct, but it's a position we feel comfortable taking.
We're making that play at any plus-money offering, but +102 at FanDuel is currently the best available.
Pick: Canucks (+102 at FanDuel)
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