NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Oilers vs Sharks (Thursday, December 28)
Via Jared Silber/Getty Images. Pictured: Connor McDavid #97 of the Edmonton Oilers skates against the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden on December 22, 2023 in New York City.
Oilers vs. Sharks Odds
| Oilers Odds | -310 |
| Sharks Odds | +250 |
| Over / Under | 7 +105 / -125 |
Here's everything you need to know about Oilers vs. Sharks on Dec. 28 — our expert NHL betting preview and prediction for Thursday.
At the Oilers' dreariest point of the season, they suffered a 3-2 loss to the lowly Sharks. They've gone 13-6-0 since that point, so surely they'll best the Sharks this time…right?
Let's discuss that while previewing the upcoming contest and offering an Oilers vs. Sharks prediction.
Edmonton has the world's best player in Connor McDavid, who has 12 goals and 44 points in 29 contests this season, including 10 markers and 34 points in his last 18 outings. The Oilers also have another superstar forward in Leon Draisaitl (14 goals and 35 points in 31 games) along with Zach Hyman (fifth in the goal-scoring race with 19) and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (eight goals, 31 points.
On defense, they have one of the NHL's top offensive blue-liners in Evan Bouchard (eight goals, 32 points). To put that into perspective, they have more players with at least 30 points than even the Canucks, who lead the league with 3.86 goals per game.
The Oilers don't match the Canucks in terms of offensive depth, but the Oilers' 3.45 goals per game is still good for seventh in the NHL, so we've seen that the Oilers' modest scoring depth is an issue that can be overcome. However, the Oilers can't power through poor goaltending.
From Nov. 24 to Dec. 12, the Oilers won eight straight contests. While McDavid and the forward corps played a significant role in that winning streak, that run was supported by goaltender Stuart Skinner, who posted a 1.70 Goals Against Average (GAA) and .934 save percentage in seven starts over that span.
The problem is that Skinner doesn't always play like that. Over his first 13 contests this season, he posted a 3.66 GAA and an .865 save percentage, and in the three starts since that winning streak ended, the 25-year-old netminder has a 3.81 GAA and .857 save percentage.
Success often starts with goaltending, but the Oilers can't depend on their netminders right now.
How much does having an inconsistent goaltender matter against a team as bad as the Sharks? Probably not a lot.
San Jose ranks dead last offensively with just 2.15 goals per game. The Sharks did have a run of eight games from Nov. 25 to Dec. 10 in which they averaged an amazing 4.00 goals, but they've managed just 1.83 goals per contest over their last six outings.
Overall this season, Tomas Hertl and Mikael Granlund are the only Sharks who have recorded at least 20 points. Hertl specifically has 27, meaning the Oilers have five players doing better than the Sharks' scoring leader.
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For the sake of argument, let's say that the Sharks have a good offensive game, and Skinner struggles in goal. As noted above, San Jose has moments where its forward group clicks – so it's not impossible – but even in that scenario, Edmonton still would have a solid chance of winning because San Jose also has one of the worst defenses of the salary-cap era.
With 4.03 goals allowed per game, only the 2022-23 Anaheim Ducks have been leakier (4.09 goals allowed per contest).
When San Jose held Edmonton to two goals on Nov. 9, Edmonton's forwards were struggling to find themselves, and something seemed off with McDavid. Even then, it took one of Mackenzie Blackwood's few great performances of the season — saving 39 of 41 shots — to hold back the flood. The Oilers are in a different place now, and the chances of the Sharks getting another elite performance out of its poor goaltenders are low.
To pile on even further, the Sharks will be tired after battling in LA on Wednesday against the Kings, while the Oilers will be playing for the first time since the Christmas break.
Oilers vs. Sharks
Betting Pick & Prediction
With almost everything stacked in the Oilers' favor, oddsmakers are understandably treating them like overwhelming favorites. There is the temptation to be a contrarian and chase the big potential payout with the Sharks, but I don't see a path toward a San Jose victory.
Is there a chance the Sharks can find a way to win? Absolutely — but picking the Sharks right now feels closer to buying a lottery ticket and hoping for the best than anything else.
Pick: Oilers Puck Line -1.5 (-125 | Play to -135)
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