Sobel: What the Last 10 Years of Masters Trends and Data Could Say About the 2019 Masters Champion

Apr 09, 2019 04:29 PM EDT
Credit:

Michael Madrid, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Sergio Garcia

  • No pre-tourney favorite has won the Masters in the last decade, yet nobody higher than 50/1 has won in the past seven years.
  • Jason Sobel breaks down the past 10 years of Masters data to see if we can find out what range the winner will likely be in, according to the odds.

Past performance is not an indicator of future results.

We all get it. Whether we’ve played the stock market or bet on sports, we all understand that just because something has happened previously there’s no determinant which assures it will happen again.

And yet, there are obviously times when we can learn from past results – when we can gather information and use that data to make an informed decision about predicting future events.

This was my theory behind looking at the pre-tournament odds for each of the past 10 editions of the Masters Tournament, searching for trends amongst the eventual winners.

According to golfodds.com, these are the final odds for each of those winners, along with their placement on the board. (Because Masters odds are posted so early before the tourney, the numbers often change drastically prior to the opening round; I’ve used the final odds in every instance.)

  • 2018: Patrick Reed 40/1, T-17
  • 2017: Sergio Garcia 30/1, T-9
  • 2016: Danny Willett, 50/1, T-16
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth, 10/1, 2nd
  • 2014: Bubba Watson, 20/1, T-6
  • 2013: Adam Scott, 25/1, T-6
  • 2012: Bubba Watson, 30/1, T-10
  • 2011: Charl Schwartzel, 100/1, T-35
  • 2010: Phil Mickelson, 10/1, 2nd
  • 2009: Angel Cabrera, 125/1, T-40

A few notable findings: No pre-tourney favorite has won the Masters in the last decade, yet nobody higher than 50/1 has won in the past seven years. Essentially, we’ve witnessed a lot of winners who were firmly on the radar without being “The Man To Beat” beforehand.

If we tally up these numbers from the past 10 years, we’ll find that winners’ odds are an average of 44/1, while they rank an average of 14.3 on the board.

So, what does that mean in regard to this year’s tournament?

Tony Finau is 35-1 to win the 2019 Masters at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. Credit: Jasen Vinlove, USA Today Sports.

Well, it’s a bit inconclusive. The players who rank somewhere just after 14th on the current list includes the group at +3000 – Francesco Molinari, Paul Casey, Tony Finau and Jason Day. If you want to try to base your winner simply on that ranking, well, you could probably do a lot worse.

That doesn’t account for the 44/1 number, though. If we want someone to fit that profile, we have to peruse all the way down to the 23rd name on the board, a guy who won this tournament just two years ago. Again, some pretty solid value in picking up a recent champion at +4500.