Editor’s Note: This is a guest post from PoolGenius, whose subscribers have reported more than $10 million in pool winnings across all sports using their tools.
If you’re researching Farmers Insurance Open One and Done picks this week, the decision is less about finding the best golfer and more about avoiding the wrong one too early.
The 2026 Farmers Insurance Open returns to Torrey Pines with a wide-open field and no Scottie Scheffler at the top of the board. Still, it sits firmly in the second tier of PGA Tour prize money, offering a $9.6 million purse with $1.674 million to the winner.
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2026 Farmers Insurance Open Field Overview
Torrey Pines once again features the familiar two-course setup, with the South Course hosting the final two rounds and demanding elite ball-striking throughout the week.
With Scheffler absent, the top of the field looks flatter than usual, even though plenty of star power remains. Xander Schauffele headlines the odds board, followed closely by Ludvig Åberg, with several proven Torrey Pines performers lurking just behind them.
Past winners are also present, including defending champion Harris English and two-time winner Jason Day, though none enter as overwhelming favorites.
Farmers Insurance Open Odds to Win
Here are the top golfers by outright win odds as of Monday afternoon, January 26:
- Xander Schauffele +1400
- Ludvig Åberg +1600
- Cameron Young +2000
- Jason Day +2200
- Si Woo Kim +2200
- Patrick Cantlay +2500
- Hideki Matsuyama +2500
- J.J. Spaun +2500
With no dominant favorite, small differences in win probability matter far less than how much future value you give up by using a golfer now.
That’s where One and Done strategy really comes into play.
Don’t Automatically Take the Chalk
On paper, golfers like Schauffele, Åberg, Cantlay, and Matsuyama all make sense. They’re elite talents and clear win contenders at Torrey Pines.
We currently rank the Farmers Insurance Open 22nd in total prize money on the PGA Tour schedule. As a rule of thumb, that means you ideally want to deploy a golfer ranked 22nd or worse in overall future value.
Using a top-10 season-long asset here often means trading away massive upside later for only a modest edge this week, a mistake that quietly compounds as the season goes on.
4 Best Golf One and Done Picks for the Farmers Insurance Open (2026)
There’s no single “must-play” option this week, but these four golfers strike the best balance between win equity and long-term discipline.
1. Keegan Bradley: Bradley sits right around the ideal future value range for an event like this. He offers real upside at Torrey Pines without forcing you to sacrifice a golfer you’ll need when Signature Events and majors arrive.
2. Harris English: As the defending champion, English brings obvious course confidence — but more importantly, his season-long value profile makes him much easier to use here than at higher-purse events later on. He’s strong enough to contend without creating regret down the road.
3. Jason Day: Day’s history at Torrey Pines speaks for itself, and his current win odds keep him firmly in the mix. While he’s a recognizable name, his overall future value makes him more expendable here than the elite tier above him.
4. Chris Gotterup: If your priority is preserving elite golfers, Gotterup fits the bill. He has enough upside to matter this week, but using him now doesn’t close doors later in the season.
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One of the hardest parts of Golf One and Done pools isn’t finding good picks — it’s understanding how your pick stacks up against the rest of the field.
Most players focus on odds and recent form. Fewer account for pick popularity, future purse leverage, and the downstream effects of each decision.
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