The third round of 2026's The American Express gets underway on Friday in California.
Featuring both ends of the golf spectrum, Scottie Scheffler and Blades Brown are the co-leaders after the second round at 17-under par. They hold a one-stroke lead over the rest of the field as the tournament starts to get tougher with just days remaining.
Here are my picks for The American Express Round 3 bets for Saturday.
The American Express Round 3 Bets
Russell Henley Top 10 (+168 at DraftKings)
Russell Henley enters the weekend tied for 12th at 13-under par. A key trend at this event is that the Pete Dye Stadium Course is playing noticeably harder than the other two venues.
Henley, assuming he makes the cut, will need to play it twice over the final two rounds.
That dynamic helps explain why his top-10 prop is priced at +168 despite his strong play and high ceiling. Even so, Henley appears well-positioned to handle the challenges presented by the Stadium Course.
Greenside play is essential at the Stadium Course. There were two measured rounds at this venue last season, as every golfer who made the cut also played the course again during Sunday’s final round.
Among those golfers, each of the top six finishers ranked 31st or better in the field in strokes gained: around the green across those two rounds at the Stadium Course. No other strokes-gained category showed a similar trend.
Entering this week, Henley has gained true strokes around the green in each of his past 12 tournaments. He finished inside the top 10 in six of those outings.
Nick Taylor Top 10 (+205 at DraftKings)
Another golfer who has yet to play the Stadium Course this week is Nick Taylor, who enters Saturday tied for sixth at 14-under par. Like Henley, Taylor’s prop price reflects the fact that he must play the Stadium Course twice over the final two rounds.
However, Taylor is also well-positioned to handle the more difficult conditions. Entering the tournament, he has gained true strokes around the green in each of his past five events in which ShotLink data was available.
Taylor also performs well on approach shots from 150-175 yards, finishing 2025 ranked 31st on the PGA Tour in birdie-or-better percentage from that distance. Last year, 17.1% of approach shots at the Stadium Course came from the 150-175-yard range, the largest share of any 25-yard grouping.
