Editor’s Note: This is a guest post from PoolGenius, whose subscribers have reported more than $10 million in pool winnings across all sports using their tools.
Golf One and Done pools continue this week at the American Express, where the challenge is balancing win equity against long-term value.
The American Express carries a total purse of $9.2 million, with $1.58 million going to the winner. That places it in the second tier of PGA Tour payouts.
In other words, it is a tournament where you want legitimate win equity, but not at the expense of burning a golfer you are going to want later when the schedule reaches its highest leverage events.
Get Optimal American Express One and Done Picks Now
If you want the fastest path to smarter American Express One and Done picks, this is it.
PoolGenius offers a Golf One and Done Picks Tool that puts the most important information in one place, so you are not guessing or bouncing between odds boards, rankings, and spreadsheets.
The tool generates weekly pick grades and a season-long plan based on your actual pool rules, not a generic recommendation list. You can see how different golfers grade out depending on pool size, payout structure, and how valuable future events are.
Free trial available. No credit card required.
GET PICKS NOW
Golf OAD Picks New User Free Trial
Discounts Courtesy via Action Network
2026 American Express Field Overview
There are 156 golfers in the field, with a 54-hole cut that sends the top 65 and ties to the final round at the Stadium Course. That format slightly increases weekend equity compared to full-cut events, but it does not fundamentally change the use vs. save decision.
Scottie Scheffler headlines the field in his season debut. He did not play in this event last year, but prior to that, he posted three straight top-25 finishes here.
Alongside Scheffler, there is plenty of quality depth, with 13 golfers from PoolGenius’ Top 25 rankings in the field, including Ben Griffin, Russell Henley, and Robert MacIntyre.
Recent winners are also back. Sepp Straka returns after winning last year, while Nick Dunlap, the 2024 champion, is also in the field.
Top Contenders by Win Odds
Here are the top golfers in terms of outright win odds for the American Express as of Tuesday morning, January 20:
- Scottie Scheffler +275
- Ben Griffin +1800
- Russell Henley +2000
- Robert MacIntyre +2200
- Ludvig Aberg +2200
- Si Woo Kim +2200
- Sam Burns +2500
- Patrick Cantlay +2500
- Sepp Straka +2800
Scheffler is the clear favorite and sits in a tier of his own. After that, the board flattens out quickly, with several golfers clustered in similar odds ranges.
That is usually a signal to think carefully about future value rather than simply taking the shortest number.
Most Popular American Express One and Done Picks
Pick popularity is not everything, but in larger One and Done pools, it plays an important role.
We expect ownership to be relatively spread out this week. Scheffler’s presence, combined with the modest purse, should keep his popularity lower than his odds might suggest, while several golfers in the next tier are likely to absorb the bulk of the picks.
Projected ownership ranges include:
Tier 1 – Most Popular
- Ben Griffin
- Patrick Cantlay
- Sam Burns
- Si Woo Kim
Tier 2 – Next Wave
- Sepp Straka
- Russell Henley
- Ludvig Aberg
- Robert MacIntyre
- Harry Hall
Don’t Fall for the Same Early-Season Trap
We saw this exact situation play out last week.
At the Sony Open, many players ignored the lower purse context and used premium golfers anyway. Russell Henley became the most popular pick in several major pools, including the Golf One and Done World Championship, despite being ranked as a top-10 season-long asset by PoolGenius.
That is the trap with weeks like this.
The American Express is not a low-quality event, but it is also not a spot that demands spending one of your very best golfers. With so many higher payout events still ahead, using a top-tier option here can quietly weaken your position later in the season.
Best American Express One and Done Picks
There is no single best pick this week. That is usually the case in second-tier purse events where win odds are clustered and future value matters more than usual.
Golfers to Consider
Sepp Straka is firmly in play. PoolGenius ranks him 21st overall, which puts him closer to the ideal range for a tournament of this size. His recent win here boosts confidence, though it also raises popularity.
Si Woo Kim is another strong option. He is tied for the third-best odds to win, ranked 21st overall, and does not carry the same save-for-later pressure as the very top names.
Patrick Cantlay sits on the fringe. PoolGenius ranks him 19th overall, but he combines solid win equity with strong course history, including a fifth-place finish here last year and multiple top-10 results over the past decade.
Saving more future value. If you want to preserve even more future value, golfers further down the rankings who still offer upside include Harry Hall, Jason Day, and Taylor Pendrith.
What About Scheffler, Griffin, and Henley?
All three sit near the top of the odds board, so why avoid them?
The answer is future value. In a standard 31-pick One and Done season, more than half of the remaining tournaments offer higher payouts than the American Express. Even if one of these golfers wins this week, the opportunity cost can be significant.
That is exactly the type of tradeoff the Golf One and Done Picks Tool is built to help you evaluate.
Get Custom Picks for Your Pool
If you are already debating multiple options this week, that is normal. Early-season One and Done decisions tend to linger.
The easiest way to cut through that noise is having a season-level view. PoolGenius provides pick grades customized to your pool rules, along with a planner that shows the downstream impact of using a golfer now versus saving him for later.
If you want a smart shortcut for American Express One and Done picks and the rest of the season, this is it.
Free trial available. No credit card required.
GET PICKS NOW
Golf OAD Picks New User Free Trial
Discounts Courtesy via Action Network
