The fourth and final round of 2026’s The American Express takes place on Sunday at the Pete Dye Stadium Course in California.
Si Woo Kim enters the final round with a 22-under-par total, holding a one-shot lead over the rest of the field. However, world number one Scottie Scheffler is right on his heels.
Here are my picks for The American Express Round 4 bets for Sunday.
The American Express Round 4 Bets
Scottie Scheffler Outright Winner (+128 at DraftKings)
Despite sitting tied for second and trailing by one stroke, Scottie Scheffler enters the final round with the shortest odds to win at +128. For good reason, Scheffler is the most likely golfer to close out the event, even while starting Sunday one shot back.
He is not only the best golfer in the world, but he also possesses a significant talent gap over the rest of the field. In fact, there arguably has not been a separation this large between the world No. 1 and the rest of the TOUR since Tiger Woods in his prime.
Scheffler also profiles well for the Stadium Course, where the final round will be played Sunday.
Greenside play is essential at this course. There were two measured rounds at this venue last season, as every golfer who made the cut also played the course again during Sunday’s final round.
Among those golfers, each of the top six finishers ranked 31st or better in the field in strokes gained: around the green across those two rounds at the Stadium Course. No other strokes-gained category showed a similar trend.
Entering this week, Scheffler has gained true strokes around the green in three of his past four tournaments, winning two of those events.
Scheffler also excels on approach shots from 150-175 yards, finishing 2025 ranked 13th on the PGA Tour in birdie-or-better percentage from that distance. Last year, 17.1% of approach shots at the Stadium Course came from the 150-175-yard range, the largest share of any 25-yard grouping.
