2026 The American Express Betting Guide: 4 Picks Our Expert Loves This Week

The PGA Tour heads to California this week for The American Express.

They say it's better to have loved and lost than to never have loved at all. When it comes to betting outrights, I'm not sure that's the case.

We didn't have anyone in true contention at last week's Sony Open, but that means we didn't start the year off with heartbreak. I'm sure we'll have plenty of that throughout the course of the season, but hopefully we can get a few winners across the finish line along the way.

Where is The American Express?

The American Express Course Preview: Pete Dye Stadium Course, La Quinta Country Club, Nicklaus Tournament Course

We have a three-course rotation on tap this week in La Quinta, Calif. This means we have a 54-hole cut rather than a 36-hole cut. This ensures an extra day of golf sweat, which is always welcome.

While I don't mind having the field play three different courses, I do mind the tour not giving us Shot Tracker on two of the three courses. It's not the same sweat when you don't have the play-by-play of every golfer in the field. Yes, this is truly a First World problem, but it's still a problem.

The three courses in play this week are the Pete Dye Stadium Course (Par 72, 7,210 yards), the La Quinta Country Club (Par 72, 7,060 yards), and the Nicklaus Tournament Course (Par 72, 7,147 yards). While these courses aren't identical, they have more similarities than differences. All three courses are short and easy Par 72 courses. In fact, these are three of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour. All three courses feature greens with bermudagrass with poa trivialis overseed.

The Pete Dye Stadium Course is the host course, which means it will host two of the four rounds. Each golfer will play each course over the course of the first three days, then everyone will play on the Stadium Course after the cut has been made.

We don't have a strong course fit for this event. We've seen a mix of short and long hitters win here over the years. It really comes down to making birdies. You'll have to make a ton of them to be in contention, as the winning score has been at least -23 at this event in each of the last five years.

The American Express Betting Guide: 4 Picks Our Expert Loves This Week

The start of the year is always a bit unique, as there's been a long layoff between events. No matter how much a golfer has been grinding on their game, there's no way to replicate tournament reps.

It's not surprising that 15 of the last 17 winners of this event played in one of the Hawaii events (The Sentry or the Sony Open) prior to showing up in California.

This doesn't mean Scottie Scheffler can't come out and dominate, but I'm leaning into this trend with this week's outright card.

Ben Griffin

+2200 at bet365 | 4% at Kalshi

If the books are going to float these type of odds out there, Ben Griffin is going to be on my betting card often this year. He has played as good of golf as nearly anyone over the last 12 months. In his last 16 starts, he has 13 top-20 finishes, two wins, and two runner-up finishes.

Thanks to weight training and creatine (which he blamed for a four-putt at the BMW Championship), he has added a ton of distance off the tee. He's always been elite on approach, around the green, and on the green, so being a good driver of the ball has made him a complete golfer.

He finished T19 last week in Hawaii and has finished T7 and T9 at this event over the last two years. I don't expect him to slow down anytime soon.

Si Woo Kim

+3000 at BetMGM | 3% at Kalshi

I bet Si Woo Kim at this event when he won in 2021, so he'll always have a place in my heart. After leading the field in Strokes Gained Tee to Green and Strokes Gained Ball Striking last week, I am going right back to the Kim well.

He ended up losing over 4.5 strokes putting last week, which is why he wasn't truly in contention. However, the underlying ball-striking numbers are very encouraging.

He's always loved Pete Dye courses (he also won The Players Championship), and he's finished in the top 25 at this event in four of the last five years.

I usually don't like to bet bad putters at extreme birdie-fests like this, but Kim seems to have these greens figured out.

Harry Hall

+4500 at Caesars | 2% at Kalshi

This is not hyperbole — Harry Hall might have the best short game of any golfer on the PGA Tour. Over the last 18 months, he's seventh in Strokes Gained Around the Green and third in Strokes Gained Putting.

Golfers who rely on their short game tend to be volatile on a week-to-week basis, but Hall has somehow defied the odds and has finished in the top 30 in 14 of his last 16 starts.

In general, good putters tend to have more success at birdie-fests because everyone hits a ton of greens in regulation. The elite ball strikers tend to separate on difficult courses.

This course sets up well for Hall, who is coming off his third-best ball striking performance of his career last week at the Sony Open.

Matthew McCarty

+10000 at Caesars | <1% at Kalshi

My model loves Matthew McCarty this week, so I'm happy to take a stab at him at +10000.

They say winning translates at most levels, and that's been the case with McCarty. He won three times on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2024 and got the automatic promotion to the PGA Tour. It didn't take him long to pick up his first win at the highest level, as he won the 2024 Black Desert Championship.

He's not an elite ball-striker by any stretch of the imagination, but he's one of the best putters on tour and tends to play his best on very easy courses.

When is The American Express?

The 2026 American Express tees off on Thursday, January 22, 2026.

• What: The American Express
• When: January 22-25, 2026
• Where: PGA West, La Quinta Country Club, La Quinta, Calif.
• Par: 72
• Length: 7,210, 7,060, and 7,147
• Purse: $9.2 million

Where to Watch The American Express?

2026 The American Express TV Schedule

Round 1: Thursday, January 22

• Live stream: ESPN+ (11:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET)
• TV coverage: Golf Channel (4 to 7 p.m.)

Round 2: Friday, January 23

• Live stream: ESPN+ (11:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET)
• TV coverage: Golf Channel (4 to 7 p.m.)

Round 3: Saturday, January 24

• Live stream: ESPN+ (11:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET)
• TV coverage: Golf Channel (4 to 7 p.m.)

Round 4: Sunday, January 25

• Live stream: ESPN+ (11:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET)
• TV coverage: Golf Channel (4 to 7 p.m.)

Who is Favored to Win The American Express?

Scottie Scheffler is listed as a +240 favorite based on odds posted at DraftKings.

Next up on the odds board is Ben Griffin, who is listed at +1800 to win The American Express. Griffin played in the season's first tournament last weekend in Hawaii, finishing in the top 20.

Following Griffin among the favorites to win the 2026 The American Express golf tournament are Sam Burns at +2000, Russell Henley, Patrick Cantlay, and Ludvig Aberg at +2200, and Robert MacIntyre at +2500.

2026 The American Express Odds, Full Field

Odds via DraftKings