The 2026 American Express tees off with its first round on Thursday morning from La Quinta, Calif.
This week's event features a number of top players, most notably world No. 1 player Scottie Scheffler, who is an overwhelming favorite at +240 odds.
This will be the second tournament of the season after last week's season opener in Hawaii was won by Chris Gotterup.
From favorites to long-shots, props, and more, these are our staff's 2026 American Express best bets and favorite golf picks.
PGA Tour Expert Picks: American Express
72-Hole Matchup: Rasmus Hojgaard Over Harris English (+105)
We know that Rasmus Hojgaard is long off of the tee, but the putter was hot in 2025 as well. The distance off of the tee will be an advantage at the Stadium course, and the putting success will be an asset at La Quinta.
Harris English is not nearly as long off of the tee and has not had much success at this event in his career. Dating back to 2020, English has finished T48, Cut, T43.
Hojgaard will be making his debut at The American Express, but his skill profile fits well enough to justify him beating out English this week.
Outright Winner: Russell Henley +2800
I talked a lot last week in my article about how Russell Henley had a nearly a 3% win equity edge over anyone else in the field. That didn't necessarily come to fruition after a disastrous Friday took him out of contention, but I do think markets have overcorrected to his lackluster start to the season.
Henley is not a prolific birdie maker. That is one of the downsides the public is beginning to grasp, given that winning scores always approach 25 to 30 under par. However, his 30th-place rank in this field jumps to second when we condense the birdie or better percentage to feature a player's percentage of converting from under 125 yards and remove everything else. That is a distance that will deliver nearly 30% of iron shots this week and did render a 32.72% birdie rate from the American last year.
In general, I am OK with removing any major takeaways from Hawaii. I don't believe Henley has nearly the same projected returns as we may have seen from him last week (Ben Griffin/Russell Henley are almost identical with their proper price in my sheet (23.5/1), but if the market wants to present this price hike of someone who can't thrive by finding a lot of fairways and converting birdies from the short grass, I am OK hoping that his neutral par-five expectations might be able to see an increase at courses that are not overly punishing in finding birdies.
Outright Winner: Si Woo Kim +3000
I bet Si Woo Kim at this event when he won in 2021, so he'll always have a place in my heart. After leading the field in Strokes Gained Tee to Green and Strokes Gained Ball Striking last week, I am going right back to the Kim well.
He ended up losing over 4.5 strokes putting last week, which is why he wasn't truly in contention. However, the underlying ball-striking numbers are very encouraging.
He's always loved Pete Dye courses (he also won The Players Championship), and he's finished in the top 25 at this event in four of the last five years.
I usually don't like to bet bad putters at extreme birdie-fests like this, but Kim seems to have these greens figured out.
First Round Leader: Alex Noren +1800
By Tony Sartori
The American Express is unique in that the field is evenly distributed across three courses during each of the first three rounds. As a result, there are three separate first-round leader markets, one for each course.
For the purposes of this article, we will focus on two golfers in the Pete Dye Stadium Course market. This course is easier to handicap because it is the only one of the three where ShotLink data is available.
That brings us to Alex Noren, who is tied for the second-shortest odds to lead at this course after Thursday’s opening round, trailing only Harry Hall at +1400.
Greenside play is essential at the Pete Dye Stadium Course. There were two measured rounds at this venue last season, as every golfer who made the cut also played the course again during Sunday’s final round.
Among those golfers, each of the top six finishers ranked 31st or better in the field in strokes gained: around the green across those two rounds at the Pete Dye Stadium Course. No other strokes-gained category showed a similar trend.
That bodes well for Noren, who is coming off a runner-up finish at the Hero World Challenge. In that event, he ranked 10th in the field in strokes gained: around the green and second in scrambling.
