MLB Picks | Friday Odds & Predictions (April 5)

Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.

The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.

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Here are my favorite bets and MLB picks for Friday, April 5.

MLB Picks | Friday Odds & Predictions (April 5)

Phillies vs. Nationals

Aaron Nola vs. Patrick Corbin

Patrick Corbin has long been a fade candidate in MLB and this season is no different.

The southpaw surrendered a pair of home runs over 4 1/3 innings in his debut against the Reds, striking out just two. Over the last six seasons, Corbin’s strikeout rate has dropped from a once-elite 30.8% (2018) all the way down to 15.7% (2023).

Corbin finished in the bottom 2% of all pitchers in xBA last season, struggling to generate whiffs and limit hard hits (mid-40%). He is barreled on nearly 10% of all balls put into play.

Oddly enough, he was also worse at home in 2023. His ERA was nearly a half-run higher and gave up nearly eight more hits in 12 less innings (also 22 less strikeouts).

From a pure pitching standpoint, the edge is significantly in Philadelphia’s favor. Aaron Nola takes the mound in a great buy-low spot. He was torched by the deadly Atlanta Braves (4.1 IP, 7 R), but there are some positives to take from that game.

For starters, Nola’s hard-hit rate was just 35% and he did not allow a barrel. His biggest issue — barrels allowed — won’t really be exploited by the lesser bats of Washington. Even though he was much worse away from Citizens Bank Park last season, this is a manageable Nationals offense.

The same can’t be said about the Phillies, even with a slow start at the plate this year. Last year against left-handed pitching, the Phils were 11th in wRC+ and sixth in ISO. Players like Nick Castellanos (148 wRC+), Alec Bohm (142) and J.T. Realmuto (118) saw a huge boost in production against southpaws at the plate.

Rather than messing with the bullpens, I am looking to back Nola over Corbin in the first five innings. The Phillies should be closer to (-200) favorites here given the stark difference in both starting pitching and offense and I would back them in the F5 to (-180).

Pick: Phillies F5 ML (-165) | Up to (-180)

Mariners vs. Brewers

Logan Gilbert vs. Freddy Peralta

Two pitchers who have Cy Young potential and lived up to the hype in their season debut square off an interleague bout on Friday night.

We’ll start with Logan Gilbert. The right-hander debuted a cutter to his arsenal and it’s seemingly taken his game to the next level. The Stuff+ grade on that cutter sat at 160, and not one of the 13 thrown in his season debut was put into play for a base hit.

Gilbert already had elite control — 4.7 BB% sat in the 95th percentile — but being able to induce soft contact and generate more whiffs should take him to the next level. In that start against Boston, he allowed just one run on four hits with eight strikeouts.

There’s a lot to love about Gilbert. He fine-tuned his curveball this offseason and now does not have to rely on his four-seam as often thanks to the cutter. In that game against Boston, just 30.8% of pitches were the fastball, down over 10% from the year prior.

I am a firm believer in Gilbert’s success this season, and Milwaukee’s bats aren’t exactly dominant, either. In the first two series, the Brewers rank around the middle of the pack in wRC+ and in the bottom 10 in ISO. And three of those came against the lowly New York Mets.

Freddy Peralta on the other hand, looked phenomenal on Opening Day. He already possesses elite swing-and-miss stuff, his one issue has been limiting barrels (bottom 36%). In that game against the Mets, he allowed one barrel — a solo shot to Starling Marte — but did not allow a hit otherwise. He struck out eight.

Over the last five seasons, Peralta has had a 30+ K% all but once. His hard-hit rate normally sits around 31-32%, though it jumped up last year to 37.7. I would expect that to decline to his career norm in the low-to-mid 30s.

There’s not much more to add on Peralta’s dominance. Last season after the All-Star break he hit his stride and never looked back. He posted a 2.81 ERA across 13 games with just 49 hits and 103 strikeouts across 73 2/3 innings.

He draws a slumping and near-lifeless Mariners offense that ranks 28th in ISO and 25th in wRC+ through the first seven games of the season. They are dead-last in strikeout rate (30.2%) this season. Julio Rodriguez has especially struggled, still looking for his first barrel of the year.

All of this to say that I am buying both these starting pitchers and am looking to bet the first five under 4 (-120). Both have huge advantages against lowly offenses and we should see an especially quiet game on Friday.

Pick: First Five Innings Under 4

Red Sox vs. Angels

Kutter Crawford vs. Griffin Canning

While we’re hyping up pitchers, let’s have a discussion about Kutter Crawford. We saw a slow development out of Crawford in his first couple of seasons in the big leagues, an ultimate evolution into a potential elite starter for Boston.

It’s too early to crown him as such, but his underlying numbers are extremely promising. In his season debut, he struck out seven Mariners across six innings, giving up just one unearned run in the process. His strikeout rate sat at 32% and above all, he changed his approach on the mound.

Crawford threw his sweeper 37% of the time against the Mariners and generated a near 30% whiff rate. That allowed him to pull back on his fastball. The success soared, as he allowed just one hit on 31 pitches on that sweeper.

Dating back to the end of last season, the whiffs have been there for Crawford. While he was prone to being hit hard at times, he finished the season with seven strikeouts in each of his last four starts. He was also among the highest underperformers with a 3.25 xERA vs. 4.04 actual.

I’m going to continue to buy Crawford against the Angels here, an offense that ranks in the bottom 10 in strikeout rate (24.9%). His strikeout prop is currently at 5.5 (-104) and I’ll continue to buy Crawford’s potential and increasing usage of a sweeper here. I will most likely wait for lineups just in case, though that's where I'd be heading here.

I also like the Red Sox F5 ML anything short of a PK here. I am not that high on Griffin Canning, who grades out below average per Stuff+ (95). His fastball and slider — two of his three main pitches — both carry 81 Stuff+ rankings or lower.

Picks: Red Sox F5 ML (-102) | Kutter Crawford Over 5.5 Strikeouts (wait for lineups)

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