College Baseball Picks, Predictions: Our Odds & Projections for April 26-28
Jeff Moreland/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Pitcher Drew Beam of the Tennessee Volunteers.
Winning on the road in a power conference can be the biggest indicator of the strength of a team's profile heading into the postseason.
Both Arkansas and Texas A&M hit the road this past week, taking series against South Carolina and Alabama, respectively. While those might have been expected outcomes, the Tennessee-Kentucky series was a dead even split in the odds market.
The Volunteers took the series in Lexington, handing the Wildcats their first two Quad 1 losses on the season.
Both teams sit comfortably in the RPI's top 10, but the edge Tennessee possessed with top-10 ranks in on-base percentage, slugging percentage and home runs per nine innings proved to be the difference.
Kentucky dodged the title of "fraud" in a hard-fought series loss, but the schedule doesn't let up now. The Wildcats still have Arkansas, South Carolina and Vanderbilt remaining on the docket.
The battle for supremacy continues in the Big 12 following the fall of a preseason favorite in TCU. Oklahoma State posted a three-loss week after a series against Kansas State in Manhattan.
Oklahoma — a team on the rise that had +900 odds to make it to Omaha in the Action App — swept the week against BYU. The Sooners will end their season with a manageable schedule that includes Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor and Cincinnati.
Oklahoma is destined for a 2-seed just two years removed from a run to the national title game.
Here are notes on a few of the Top 25 movers after another weekend of college baseball.
Moving Up
- East Carolina (+2200) is in the driver's seat in regard to a Super Regional host seed. The Pirates swept Wichita State and possess a top-10 RPI rank. There will not be another signature series for a rankings boost with the remaining series coming against Memphis, South Florida, Tulane and Rice. Anchor Trey Yesavage continues to be one of the best pitchers in the nation with more than 100 strikeouts in 61 innings.
- The Sun Belt should be wild down the stretch. After racing out to a 14-1 conference record, Louisiana (+10000) lost its first series to Coastal Carolina (+7000). The Chanticleers still have work with series remaining against a number of teams with a conference record of .500 or better, including Troy, Southern Miss and Georgia State. Head coach Gary Gilmore may end up a Regional host in his 35th season with Coastal Carolina.
- Despite a negative run differential, Wake Forest (+1500) took the series against Florida State (+1500). Both Jamie Arnold and Chase Burns sizzled in the opening game with 20 combined strikeouts. The Demon Deacons will go into cruise control over the next two weekends against Notre Dame and Western Carolina. Victories in the final two series over Clemson and NC State may cement a Super Regional seed.
- Indiana State (+13000) is in contention to once again host a Regional. The Sycamores were granted a host spot last season and then traveled to TCU for a Super Regional because of a scheduling conflict with the Indiana Special Olympics. A series win over Evansville over the weekend of May 10 should be enough to win the Missouri Valley Conference.
Moving Down
- Oregon State (+1500) was dominated in Berkeley, getting swept by California. The Beavers have now lost five of their previous six games. Head coach Mitch Canham must right the ship with Oregon coming to Corvallis this weekend.
- West Virginia (+7000) had a meteoric rise up the rankings before getting swept in Lubbock. Texas Tech posted a +17 run differential in the three games, boat-racing a Mountaineers lineup that has struggled in slugging percentage and on-base percentage. Furthermore, the best pitcher on the staff may miss significant time, as David Hagaman is dealing with a throwing arm injury.
The college baseball season is approaching crunch-time with a month before conference tournaments. Unlike college basketball, a regular-season conference title grants an automatic bid — not a conference tournament.
The road schedule for teams over the next four series becomes paramount in predicting which squads will play at home come June.
In our weekly projections, sides are based on a calculation of ERA, FIP and xFIP. The total is based on the same numbers, along with calculated BaseRuns and park factors.
You can use this data along with our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code to get the most value on college baseball this season.
Be sure to follow along for college baseball picks in the Action App. Here are the projections for games starting Thursday, April 25:
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