College Football Rankings 2019: Playoff Top 25 & AP Poll vs. Betting Power Ratings, Week 13

College Football Rankings 2019: Playoff Top 25 & AP Poll vs. Betting Power Ratings, Week 13 article feature image
Credit:

Vasha Hunt-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joe Burrow

  • We're comparing a variety of 2019 college football rankings -- the playoff top 25, AP Poll, and our betting power ratings.
  • Our oddsmaker-style power ratings are rooted in boxscore data and tend to not be as reactionary as the College Football Playoff committee or AP Poll voters.
  • Plenty of teams are both overrated and underrated according to our ratings, but the top 3 remains the same with Clemson, Ohio State and LSU holding the top spots in all three polls.

There’s a difference between who deserves to be the No. 1 college football team in the country and who is the best team moving forward.

That’s the situation we find ourselves in now — our oddsmaker-style power ratings have Clemson and Ohio State as the clear No. 1 and No. 2. They would be favored over every other team in the country by at least a field goal.

LSU is next at No. 3, but there’s little doubt the Tigers deserve to be No. 1 in the 2019 College Football Playoff rankings based on their body of work.

Below we’re comparing the Playoff Top 25, AP Poll and our power ratings to see who is overvalued and undervalued. Action EDGE members can get access to our complete 1-130 power ratings, which can be used to create point spreads between any two teams on a neutral field.

2019 College Football Rankings

Overrated

Minnesota

  • Playoff Top 25: 10
  • AP Poll: 11
  • Power Ratings: 22

The gap between the Gophers’ CFP ranking and our power ratings didn’t happen just from their loss to Iowa last week. Minnesota has actually been steadily rising in our ratings all season.

Still, we don’t have the Gophers anywhere near the top 10 in our ratings.

Cincinnati

  • Playoff Top 25: 19
  • AP Poll: 17
  • Power Ratings: 38

The Bearcats have just one loss, but have been outgained in almost every game over the last two months.

Our power ratings are rooted in boxscore data, not just results, so that’s why Cincy ranks 20 spots lower in our ratings than in the traditional polls.

Virginia Tech

  • Playoff Top 25: NR
  • AP Poll: 25
  • Power Ratings: 45

Virginia Tech appears to be righting the ship a bit, and even cracked the Top 25 of the AP Poll.

But we don’t typically move teams up that fast. It takes a lot to go from an average FBS team to a top 25 one in the eyes of oddsmakers.

Underrated

Auburn

  • Playoff Top 25: 15
  • AP Poll: 16
  • Power Ratings: 10

What does a team like Auburn get for losing to a top-5 team like Georgia? A swift drop in the College Football Playoff rankings and AP Poll.

But the Tigers fought tough in a 21-14 loss after trailing 21-0, and outgained the Dawgs. That won’t cause a big drop in our power ratings, which are opponent adjusted.

Texas A&M

  • Playoff Top 25: NR
  • AP Poll: 24
  • Power Ratings: 15

The Aggies, like many SEC teams, find themselves underrated relative to our power ratings because of the brutal schedule.

The Aggies, when is all said and done, could go 7-5 with those five losses against top-10 teams.

Texas

  • Playoff Top 25: NR
  • AP Poll: NR
  • Power Ratings: 19

No one will fault AP Poll voters or the College Football Playoff committee for not ranking the Longhorns, but they’re still in the Top 25 of our power ratings.

Overall it’s been a disappointing season for Texas, which has posted some decent boxscore results but hasn’t closed games.