Cal vs UCLA Pick, Prediction & Odds: Bet Bruins in Pac-12 After Dark
Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images. Pictured. UCLA coach Chip Kelly.
Cal Golden Bears vs UCLA Bruins Odds
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | +275 |
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | -350 |
It's time to find a Cal vs. UCLA pick and prediction after looking at the updated odds for Saturday night's Pac-12 After Dark college football game.
The 93rd meeting between UCLA and Cal takes place on Saturday in what will be the last full weekend of Pac-12 football as we know it.
Showing signs of life this season, Cal has all the motivation needed to win; the Golden Bears' sixth victory would make them bowl-eligible. But will UCLA’s defense prove to be too much for Cal to handle?
Let's find out.
This will be an uphill battle for the Bears against a strong UCLA defense, but Justin Wilcox’s squad will need to find a way if it wants to extend its season.
Cal has put up points against poor defensive teams in the Pac-12 this season and has been relatively quiet when playing good defenses. Oregon and Utah are the only teams in the conference to hold Cal below 20 points, while the Bears have eclipsed 30 points four times in league play.
Unfortunately for Cal, UCLA qualifies as a good defensive team. The Bruins are especially strong against the run, where Cal's offensive strength lies.
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The Bears rank 71st in Success Rate but 44th in explosiveness. They've been buoyed by their rushing game, which ranks 45th in Success Rate, 18th in PPA and 32nd in explosiveness.
Through the air, things have not been as productive for Cal. The Bears are 99th in Passing Success Rate and 86th in Passing PPA. They have also not protected against negative plays well, ranking 71st in Havoc Allowed, which will be an issue against a UCLA defense that's sixth in generating Havoc.
Cal’s defense has not provided much resistance for opponents, as it ranks 118th in Success Rate and 131st in Finishing Drives, including Success Rate marks of 108th against the run and 121st against the pass.
Rumors continue to swirl around the job security of UCLA head coach Chip Kelly, but that has not deterred the Bruins, who rallied behind him and picked up a stunning 18-point victory over in-town rival USC last Saturday as a 5.5-point underdog.
After starting 6-2, November got off to a rough start for the Bruins, who dropped two consecutive games against the Arizona schools before rebounding against USC.
However, the health of UCLA’s quarterbacks was an issue in those games, as both Ethan Garbers and Dante Moore were forced to miss parts of both games. Garbers did make a return last week against USC.
Injuries have played a part, but the passing game this season has been a drag on UCLA, which ranks 92nd in Success Rate and 104th in PPA. The Bruins run the ball at the 51st-highest rate in the nation; they're 49th in Rushing Success Rate and 31st in PPA.
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Despite the lackluster showing on offense, UCLA's defense has been outstanding. The Bruins rank 23rd in Success Rate, 27th in explosiveness, 11th in Finishing Drives and sixth in Havoc Rate.
Their rushing defense has been one of the best in the country at preventing explosives and comes in at fifth in rushing explosiveness allowed, which has led to it ranking fourth in PPA and 31st in Success Rate. The defense has been strong through the air as well, sitting 23rd in Success Rate and 36th in PPA.
Without a doubt, UCLA’s defense will be the best unit on the field in this matchup.
Cal vs. UCLA
Betting Pick & Prediction
While UCLA hasn’t been exceptional on offense, it should be able to put up numbers in what could be Kelly’s final Pac-12 game in Westwood.
Cal’s defense is one of the weakest on UCLA's schedule, and the Bruins should score in bunches against a team that has allowed 34 or more points to five of its seven Pac-12 opponents this season.
Defensively, this matchup is also a dream for UCLA. The Bruins boast one of the best rushing defenses in the country, which aligns with the Bears’ primary offensive strength. UCLA should be able to shut down the run and force Cal into long passing downs against an elite pass rush.
In a matchup between these two long-standing rivals, expect UCLA to stage an impressive win in the last regular-season game ever played in the Pac-12 as we know.
Pick: UCLA -9
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