UCF vs Cincinnati Odds, Picks: Why to Bet the Knights

What makes this matchup between the UCF Golden Knights and the Cincinnati Bearcats so interesting is that one team's O has got to go. Both the Knights and Bearcats have started Big 12 play on five-game losing streaks.

UCF has a bit more dignity in its losing streak, as a chunk of it came without star starting quarterback John Rhys Plumlee. It still hasn't won a game since he returned three weeks ago, but his ability could be an X-factor in this matchup.

As for Cincinnati, the Emory Jones experience has gone relatively well, as the well-traveled quarterback has played solid ball in black and red. However, some questions need to be answered on the other side of the ball.

So, which team will rise to the occasion and get back into the win column? Let's take a closer look to find out.

When you look at the Knights offensively, there's not much to complain about. UCF has proven to have a dominant ground game behind running back RJ Harvey and Plumlee at quarterback.

Harvey has been a workhorse but has also been plenty efficient. He and the rest of the Knights backfield have combined to average 5.8 yards per carry, which is good for third in the country.

However, the legs to keep your eye on in this matchup are Plumlee's. Now, with three games under his belt since returning from a knee injury, he appears to finally have the reins taken off after rushing for 45 yards last week.

Getting the chains moving on the ground will be just the start of UCF's offense in this matchup, as it will need Plumlee's arm to play a role as well. Cincy has been very vulnerable to big plays on offense, ranking 115th in yards per pass allowed.

As the rust finally appears to have come off Plumlee in all facets, we should expect him to terrorize this Cincinnati defense in every way possible.

As I alluded to, Jones has been solid as a passer for the Bearcats this season. However, he's been largely inefficient as a rusher, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry.

His inefficiency on the ground has been a roadblock to the Bearcats offense, as starting running back Corey Kiner has averaged 5.4 yards per carry but has only seven more carries than Jones.

If Jones fails to get it going on the ground once again, it could quickly derail Cincy's offense, especially when it's wasting such a good matchup. UCF has been ravaged on the ground, ranking 121st in yards per rush allowed.

Realistically, the Bearcats have no excuse not to succeed against this UCF defense, but we have seen them consistently self-sabotage. The issue is that any stalled drive could put them behind in a hurry, as UCF has the talent and the tempo to capitalize on any extra possession.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UCF and Cincinnati match up statistically:

UCF Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	18	38
Line Yards	31	28
Pass Success	27	110
Havoc	51	13
Finishing Drives	75	59
Quality Drives	30	99

Cincinnati Offense vs. UCF Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	57	126
Line Yards	32	125
Pass Success	70	45
Havoc	39	102
Finishing Drives	77	108
Quality Drives	67	108

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	73	52
PFF Coverage	79	127
Special Teams SP+	71	91
Middle 8	39	104
Seconds per Play	24.1 (17)	25.4 (44)
Rush Rate	58.1% (26)	58.4% (24)

From a matchup perspective, both of these offenses should have no issue moving the ball. However, one of these offenses averages 31.3 points per game, and the other averages just 19.4.

There are more flaws on the Cincinnati side of the ball, and if the Bearcats get in their own way, this one could get out of hand like we've seen over the past five weeks.

Back the better offense to cover the spread here.