Texas A&M vs. Missouri Betting Odds, Predictions: Our Favorite Pick for Saturday’s Conference Contest (Oct. 16)

Texas A&M vs. Missouri Betting Odds, Predictions: Our Favorite Pick for Saturday’s Conference Contest (Oct. 16) article feature image
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Texas A&M vs. Missouri Odds

Texas A&M Odds -11.5
Missouri Odds +11.5
Moneyline -400 / +300
Over/Under 59.5 (-105 / -115)
Time 12 p.m. ET
TV SEC Network
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Texas A&M shocked the college football world last Saturday when the Aggies upset No. 1 Alabama as 17-point underdogs.

Aggies quarterback Zach Calzada, a subject of much criticism for his early-season performances, came back from injury to put the Aggies in position to kick the game-winning field and start the party in College Station.

A&M started fast, held off the late comeback charge from the Crimson Tide and really pushed around the Tide in the trenches. It was the Aggies’ statement win following two disappointing performances and losses to Arkansas and Mississippi State in consecutive weeks.

Now, here comes the letdown spot.

A road trip to Missouri is most definitely not one the Aggies had scheduled as a big game when the season began. That makes this a dangerous spot for a team coming off the biggest win of the college season.

Missouri is middling in the SEC after close losses to Kentucky and Boston College were followed by a blowout defeat to Tennessee.

Despite Missouri’s talent disadvantage overall, they match up relatively well with the Aggies and it’s a nightmare spot for A&M and Calzada to try to cover a multiple possession spread on the road.


Texas A&M vs. Missouri Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 16
12 p.m. ET
SEC Network

Texas A&M Aggies

Texas A&M Offense

There’s not much to like about the Aggies’ offense that scored 10 points against Arkansas, 22 against Mississippi State and 10 against Colorado.

Forty-one points in their game of the year last week is impressive, but is it repeatable?

There’s an argument to be made that Calzada will continue to improve with more and more experience, but the Aggies’ offense doesn’t rate out particularly well.

Despite Missouri’s poor rush defense, A&M is just 72nd in Rushing Success Rate and 94th in Offensive Line Yards. The Aggies rank outside the top 70 in both pass blocking and Passing Success Rate and that’s going against the strength of the Tigers’ defense.

As good as the Aggies have been at finishing drives, it’s hard to understand how sustainable that is given their mediocre Success Rate and reliance on big plays to generate offense.

Both of those metrics suggest that the impressive Finishing Drives is more of a fluke than sustainable production.

The Aggies don’t have the offense to generate separation from most Power Five teams and that remains true even after a win against Alabama. There’s little margin for error with this offense and if they’re flat, even less margin.


Texas A&M Defense

The strength of the Aggies’ team is their defense, which stops the run really well, creates negative plays and prevents explosive plays.

The Aggies rank top-40 in Havoc created and Big Plays allowed. It’s not that stout of a defensive line, but the linebackers tackle really well and stop runs effectively.

The Aggies’ defense ranks inside the top 35 in both PFF tackling and coverage grades, a major reason that this unit held solid offenses like Arkansas and Alabama in check for most of those respective games.

A&M usually brings the defense to keep games close, which makes it a solid underdog. But for a multiple possession favorite, the Aggies aren’t elite enough to create separation.

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Missouri Tigers

Missouri Offense

The Tigers are a pass-first offense that ranks 120th in rushing rate in the country and features an offense that is effective with passing success and pass blocking.

It’s not the Mississippi State air raid, but the tendencies are similar to the offense that carved up Texas A&M in Starkville a few weeks ago.

Missouri is 11th in Passing Success Rate and 38th in Big Plays. The Tigers should be able to move the ball comfortably through the air and break off an explosive play or two to keep this game relatively close.

A&M is unlikely to create a pass rush to get to Connor Bazelak. When he hasn’t been pressured, he’s been very solid from the pocket and he’s only really struggled in 2021 when under constant pressure.

With a clean pocket, he should be successful on Saturday.


Missouri Defense

Missouri’s pass defense is nothing particularly special, but they are able to get pressure on quarterbacks and should be one of the better units that Calzada has faced all season. They rank 48th in Pass Rush and 86th in Passing Success Rate allowed, which will make it very difficult for Calzada if they can get to him.

Maybe Calzada turned a corner last week against Alabama, but I’d bet that’s more likely a one-off until he proves otherwise on a consistent basis.

The Tigers should be able to generate some pressure given their statistical advantages along the offensive line in pass blocking. If they get to Calzada, the mistakes will come and the misfires and inaccuracies will reappear.

Given the quality of the Missouri pass rush, A&M may turn to the run more and will probably be successful. But as a multiple possession underdog, I’m okay with the favorite grinding out long drives with lots of runs and eating clock.


Texas A&M vs. Missouri Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas A&M and Missouri match up statistically:

Texas A&M Offense vs. Missouri Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 72 128
Line Yards 94 124
Pass Success 84 86
Pass Blocking** 77 48
Big Play 42 66
Havoc 105 81
Finishing Drives 84 125
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Missouri Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 80 64
Line Yards 99 52
Pass Success 11 21
Pass Blocking** 37 56
Big Play 38 24
Havoc 49 39
Finishing Drives 23 5
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 32 82
Coverage 32 63
Middle 8 44 32
SP+ Special Teams 7 1
Plays per Minute 98 35
Rush Rate 49.1% (103) 43.4% (120)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Texas A&M vs. Missouri Betting Pick

This line opened at 10 and has since dropped to 8.5 throughout the week despite most of the bets coming in on the Aggies after the upset.

It’s common for a team to get a lot of love from the public after a big upset win and then come out flat the next game against an inferior opponent. Credit to Texas A&M for the win against Alabama this week, but that doesn’t excuse the accuracy issue of Calzada.

The Aggies didn’t become an explosive offense overnight in one game against Alabama and their offense still has significant deficiencies across the board against a solid Missouri defense.

Whatever hidden advantage in yards and points that Texas A&M usually has on special teams is nullified in this game because Missouri is ranked No. 1 in SP+ special teams this season.

Anything 8.5 or better is good on the Tigers to keep this game within one possession and maybe even pull off the upset of the Aggies in a letdown spot after one of the biggest program wins in years last week.

Pick:  Missouri +8.5 or better

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